2020 Democratic Candidates Tracker Part III

[d4m10n]

Will you be getting behind the progressive front runner or the establishment choice popular vote leader?

FTFY

 

[TurkeysGhost]

I really don't understand the tone shift that has happened here. Biden has a tiny lead over Bernie. It's still very much a contested election.

Biden has 28% of the delegates needed for a majority win

Bernie has 25%.

Biden is the frontrunner of a very close race in which lots of states are still left.

 

[Distracted1]

That might have been the idea. But I think Warren staying in the race is demonstrating her limited appeal.

There is a debate on the 15th. in AZ.
You see her appeal falling after sharing the debate stage with the two guys from the balcony on the muppets?

I hope she stays in at least till after that debate. And preferably all the way to the end.

 

[Distracted1]

There's really no reason for her to stay in other than pride or stubbornness at this point. All the other also-rans have seen the writing on the wall and dropped out. Unless you count fringe candidates. There's nothing more to be gained by staying in. Unless to spite Bernie.

There are still two months and more than half the delegates to go.

If her financing does not dry up, she is going to start looking better and better by comparison to the frontrunners.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

There is a debate on the 15th. in AZ.
You see her appeal falling after sharing the debate stage with the two guys from the balcony on the muppets?

I hope she stays in at least till after that debate. And preferably all the way to the end.

What does the path to victory look like for her? Winning a majority is out unless you honestly expect Warren to win states at like 60% or more.

Edit: Quick calculation comes up with Warren needing to win 70% of all remaining pledged delegates to get a majority. Nobody thinks this is going to happen, right?

Do you think that Warren can win a majority?

The only reasonable path to victory for her is a contested convention. Given the coalescing of the rest of the party around Biden, I find it very hard to imagine that they would turn it over to Warren who would probably be coming in a distant third.

 

[TragicMonkey]

There are still two months and more than half the delegates to go.

If her financing does not dry up, she is going to start looking better and better by comparison to the frontrunners.

Those who don't like Sanders and those who don't like Biden can compromise by supporting Warren instead. Aren't both groups constantly yammering on about the greatness and necessity of compromise? Here's their opportunity to actually do it. Unless they are simply dirty hypocrites and only value compromise when they're trying to persuade others to give in. Surely not.

 

[Belz...]

Those who don't like Sanders and those who don't like Biden can compromise by supporting Warren instead. Aren't both groups constantly yammering on about the greatness and necessity of compromise?

Hey, that's me!!

 

[d4m10n]

I really don't understand the tone shift that has happened here. Biden has a tiny lead over Bernie. It's still very much a contested election.

Very much so. We'll have a better idea what the new two-man race dynamic looks like next Wednesday.

Do you think that Warren can win a majority?

She may win enough to be the key powerbroker going in to Milwaukee, assuming no one makes it to 1,991.

 

[Distracted1]

Those who don't like Sanders and those who don't like Biden can compromise by supporting Warren instead. Aren't both groups constantly yammering on about the greatness and necessity of compromise? Here's their opportunity to actually do it. Unless they are simply dirty hypocrites and only value compromise when they're trying to persuade others to give in. Surely not.

I think she mitigates a good deal of the Sanders' supporters bitterness. And provides all the "anyone but Sanders" with a better choice than the walking corpse that Biden seems to be.

 

[Distracted1]

What does the path to victory look like for her? Winning a majority is out unless you honestly expect Warren to win states at like 60% or more.

Edit: Quick calculation comes up with Warren needing to win 70% of all remaining pledged delegates to get a majority. Nobody thinks this is going to happen, right?

Do you think that Warren can win a majority?

The only reasonable path to victory for her is a contested convention. Given the coalescing of the rest of the party around Biden, I find it very hard to imagine that they would turn it over to Warren who would probably be coming in a distant third.

Brokered convention.
What the Convention is supposed to be in the first place.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Brokered convention.
What the Convention is supposed to be in the first place.

What exactly does that look like, in your mind? Warren comes in with enough delegates to deny both Bernie and Biden a majority win, then somehow she emerges as the candidate?

The entire party apparatus is unified in supporting Biden. In what world are the superdelegates going to prefer Warren with like 10-15% of pledged delegates over Biden with like 35-45%?

Best case scenario for Warren is she extracts a VP or cabinet position in exchange for her delegates. Doesn't seem like a good deal as it necessitates sending the party into chaotic infighting for a brokered convention.

 

[Cabbage]

Mmm. This ended up longer than I like, but... I also don't feel like responding to all these individually.




While generally ignoring those that they've chosen to represent them.



Sure. McConnell's to blame for a lot. With that said, though, going by his record, Sanders frequently doesn't even really try to make things happen in the first place. Rather, it seems more like he frequently gives up preemptively, without even seriously trying to actually make things happen. Compare this to Warren, who has apparently got about a dozen bills passed recently, despite McConnell and the general obstructionism of the Republicans.



Personally, I agree with you that Sanders has created a nationwide coalition of voters. With that said, there's not much evidence that it's strong enough to win many legislature spots to directly help him enact his agenda or usable enough to pressure current lawmakers into supporting his agenda... and that somewhat gets to one of the hearts of how unrealistic it is when he claims that his approach to getting things done will be to get the constituents of legislators to effectively force the legislators to give in.



It... sorta is, pretty much by definition? He's chosen a particular tactic to accomplish things and he's failed to reach success with it over and over. That IS his responsibility, for better or worse.

Regarding Bernie not getting anything done: I've seen others on this board complain about Bernie's supporters not realizing that Bernie as president would not be able to accomplish his agenda. What makes them think we are so naive? Every Bernie supporter I have spoken with is well aware he won't be able to push his agenda through as president. And I wouldn't fault him for that, in the face of GOP obstructionism.

No, we are supporting him for the purpose of pushing the federal govt, however so slightly or not, to the left, after such dramatic swings to the right over the past few decades. And let me preemptively point out to anyone deciding to ask me: Wouldn't it be better to support a progressive left candidate who can get things done?

1. I'm not sure that's possible in the current political climate.

2. You vote for the progressive left candidate you have, not the progressive left candidate you want.

Finally, for anyone who claims Warren is similar but she's accomplished more in the Senate: I'm on the record on this board stating on several occasions that I consider my support between Warren and Sanders a coin flip. I decided several months ago to vote for which ever had the momentum at the time of my state's primary. And that's exactly what I did.

 

[TragicMonkey]

What exactly does that look like, in your mind? Warren comes in with enough delegates to deny both Bernie and Biden a majority win, then somehow she emerges as the candidate?

The entire party apparatus is unified in supporting Biden. In what world are the superdelegates going to prefer Warren with like 10-15% of pledged delegates over Biden with like 35-45%?

Best case scenario for Warren is she extracts a VP or cabinet position in exchange for her delegates. Doesn't seem like a good deal as it necessitates sending the party into chaotic infighting for a brokered convention.

Perhaps she's hoping that either Sanders or Biden will drop dead in the next five days. The odds of that aren't very bad!

 

[JoeMorgue]

Perhaps she's hoping that either Sanders or Biden will drop dead in the next five days. The odds of that aren't very bad!

There's a joke that the only job the VP has is to wake up every morning and ask if the President is still alive or not, then go back to bed.

That might have to be updated to hourly check-ins.

 

[Mike!]

E-freaking-gads. It's clear the Missouri primaries are coming up quick, the political ads have all been turned up to eleven. And everyone is evoking Obama like there's no tomorrow. Despite him not endorsing anyone, it seems like he's the star of every ad. I guess it's a good thing at one point or another, Obama had to introduce Warren, Sanders, and Biden to a crowd so they can all now use his introductory remarks as if it's an individual endorsement.

 

[Beelzebuddy]

What exactly does that look like, in your mind? Warren comes in with enough delegates to deny both Bernie and Biden a majority win, then somehow she emerges as the candidate?

I think she can use that to shift Biden's policies significantly to the left. Aside from "I have Obama's cell number," Biden doesn't really stand for much. Warren can walk in with a stack of her policy treatises and offer to avoid a brokered convention if he makes them his policy too.

 

[TragicMonkey]

E-freaking-gads. It's clear the Missouri primaries are coming up quick, the political ads have all been turned up to eleven. And everyone is evoking Obama like there's no tomorrow. Despite him not endorsing anyone, it seems like he's the star of every ad. I guess it's a good thing at one point or another, Obama had to introduce Warren, Sanders, and Biden to a crowd so they can all now use his introductory remarks as if it's an individual endorsement.

The Bloomberg flyers are still trickling through the mail. Dumpster in my alley was full of them last week.

 

[JoeMorgue]

I still had Bloomberg ads running last night in FL. Guess he had already paid for them or there was no time to redue to advertising schedule or something.

 

[d4m10n]

There's a joke that the only job the VP has is to wake up every morning and ask if the President is still alive or not, then go back to bed.

Mike Pence would likely disagree, having been saddled with the heavy burden of taking the blame for mismanaging the largest public health crisis in my lifetime.

 

[Distracted1]

Perhaps she's hoping that either Sanders or Biden will drop dead in the next five days. The odds of that aren't very bad!

I give that only an %18 probability of being a joke.

Perhaps we could convince Trump to participate in a wrestling match with our guy, and whomever survives the ordeal is the president for the next week or so until his own heart gives out.