Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

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The deaths in Washington state are at least 50% from one nursing home in the area. They're still trying to determine if the virus was brought in by one of their patients who was treated at Evergreen Hospital, or by a staff member.

The 19 year old they previously announced was only discovered because researchers were testing a bunch of flu tests to see if any were positive for Covid-19. He isn't particularly sick and wouldn't have been tested based on symptoms otherwise. Those researchers are also the ones who made the genetic connection to the first case in the area, proving that it's been in the wild for weeks.
 
Dr.Sid said:
And Hokkaido ?
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I didn't even think of that, but it certainly fits the bill.
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There might be a piece of slightly good news hidden in the latest stats.

People seem to spend 7-14 days in intensive care before they croak, if they die of covid-19.

China (assuming their numbers are somewhat reliable) is showing a drop in daily deaths to under 100 for seven days in a row.

If you shift those dates back to the new case load numbers, those deaths are in a cohort of cases when China was reporting an average of 2000 new cases a day, so the death rate is more like 0.5%. Still disastrous, but a lot lower than WHO's 2%.

Data here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak
 
Five minutes into the crowded VA Prescription Center, a guy walks past (toward) me and coughs virtually into my face. I said "******* moron!" loud enough that plenty of people around me heard it. He was maybe in his 40s, so yeah, maybe he can shrug it off. 90% of the people there are 60 or older, and obviously with some medical condition.

Later I was getting on an elevator and the lady at the back handling somebody's wheelchair let out a hacking cough, covering only with her hand. I stepped backwards out of the lift and took the next one.

The lack of awareness among people is astounding.
 
alfaniner said:
The lack of awareness among people is astounding.
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I started re-reading The Stand a few days ago, and all that sound so familiar.

portlandatheist said:
Oregon has a third case:
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavi...mptive-oregon-coronavirus-case-announced.html
This one is strange because it is in rural NE Oregon
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Not strange at all, but entirely predictable - the virus is known to have been around for six weeks or more in USA, and with lots of very mild cases, it will be spreading everywhere.

Seems to me USA decided the simplest method is to just not test for it to keep the numbers down.
 
The Atheist said:
That's escalating quickly.

A quick reverse percentage on the deaths says there are between 600 and 6000 people spreading the virus around right now in USA.

And more arriving every minute. I'm beginning to think my nightmare scenario is unfortunately unfolding right in front of us.

I'd also be extremely interested to know whether any tests have yet been done on people with pneumonia since 30 January, as I think CDC requested. I'd be surprised if it didn't turn some up - the cluster in Wa. hasn't come from nowhere.

My first pick would be looking at Colorado, having a punt Chinese skiers will have delivered it to both Italy and Wa. through tourist skiers and may well have done the same there.
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The reason the number of deaths is so high here is because the virus outbreak occurred in a nursing home full of very high risk people. There are many more there with symptoms and tests not back yet. You can expect the number of dead here to be very high in the next week or two.


We already know the outbreak here didn't come out of the blue. It's been traced to the very first case and is estimated to have been circulating for about 6 weeks. The estimate is ~500 are infected.
 
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a_unique_person said:
After the fires around Canberra were finally put out we had face masks available everywhere. They had been sold out for over a month. Just a few weeks ago there were piles of them for sale in the chemist shops.

Now they have suddenly disappeared again. I still have some left over from the time of the fires, including a proper screw in filter one.
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I've still got the box of masks that Skeptic Ginger sent me.
 
Another fun fact, those test kits are only going out now to every state. The virus is almost certainly circulating widely all over the country.
 
arthwollipot said:
I've still got the box of masks that Skeptic Ginger sent me.
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Fortunately I have half of them left (plenty for me) I was going to send to someone else but the fires went out before I did.

Just remember not to touch the outside of the mask after you've worn it. This takes some practice. I'm letting mine sit on top of the radiator before using that one again. Heat kills the virus, freezing does not.
 
From Reddit to another forum to here, so take it with a grain of salt:
A guy in Brooklyn came back from Japan, on a commercial flight, had the exact symptoms, was responsible, called an ER, was told to go in, they tested him for everything ELSE, called the CDC and were told they couldn't test him for COVID bc he wasn't ill enough (despite a high fever, dry cough, etc.). The ER shrugged and sent him home with no instructions to quarantine, stay off mass transit, anything.
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It's consistent with the CDC guideline when the tests were in short supply, though that doesn't excuse the ED for assuming that meant no disease.
 
The Atheist said:
I started re-reading The Stand a few days ago, and all that sound so familiar.



Not strange at all, but entirely predictable - the virus is known to have been around for six weeks or more in USA, and with lots of very mild cases, it will be spreading everywhere.

Seems to me USA decided the simplest method is to just not test for it to keep the numbers down.
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Just following the other third world countries.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
From Reddit to another forum to here, so take it with a grain of salt:

It's consistent with the CDC guideline when the tests were in short supply, though that doesn't excuse the ED for assuming that meant no disease.
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The testing chokepoint may have been HHS Secretary Alex Azar, who didn't want to offend Trump and doesn't trust his subordinates.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Fortunately I have half of them left (plenty for me) I was going to send to someone else but the fires went out before I did.

Just remember not to touch the outside of the mask after you've worn it. This takes some practice. I'm letting mine sit on top of the radiator before using that one again. Heat kills the virus, freezing does not.
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Or you could spray it with hypochlorous acid, no?
 
Marcus said:
Wuhan has closed one of the hospitals they built to handle the Coronavirus cases, not needed anymore. Sounds like they are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/02/world/asia/02reuters-health-coronavirus-china-toll.html
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Didn't they just send everyone back to work? We should be seeing a giant spike there soon. Also what about the other provinces? With the number of beds the atheist suggested we'll need this sounds extremely fishy and/or irresponsible
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Fortunately I have half of them left (plenty for me) I was going to send to someone else but the fires went out before I did.

Just remember not to touch the outside of the mask after you've worn it. This takes some practice. I'm letting mine sit on top of the radiator before using that one again. Heat kills the virus, freezing does not.
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I thought the masks weren't supposed to be able to do anything
 
pipelineaudio said:
I thought the masks weren't supposed to be able to do anything
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A mask can stop you touching your face with contaminated hands and fingers, and it can prevent you spreading whatever virus you happen to have through coughing and sneezing. It won't stop you from inhaling airborne virus particles, but that's not how most viruses spread anyway.
 
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