2020 Democratic Candidates Tracker Part III

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The_Animus said:
Cool. Another poster here who ignores what head to head polling vs Trump and what polling of independents actually shows.
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You need to establish head to head polling has some ability to successfully make predictions before you ask people to not ignore it.
 
Andrew Yang has suspended his campaign, making him absolutely the last person who ever thought the president could be Andrew Yang.
 
Puppycow said:
I don't trust head to head polling after what happened 4 years ago. In almost every head to head poll, Clinton beat Trump.

Also, you have to be able to win in the electoral college, so polls in swing states are probably more relevant information that national polls. But even saying that, it's still too far from the election and the attacks won't really begin in earnest until it's clear who the Democratic nominee will be.

(I'm not saying this as an anti-Sanders argument, btw, because I'm actually warming to him, but just to point out that the polls can't be trusted. Heck, the early polls showing Biden with a comfortable lead in the national polls may have been true at the time, but that support seems to be vanishing quickly.)

I do think that Sanders could win, but not because of any national head to head polls. Those failed to predict last time.
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In 2016 the polls were within the margin of error. Based on those polls Clinton was more likely to win but Trump still had a chance and that chance came true because of a small but significant number of votes in 3-4 states. I'm not sure off hand how Clinton and Trump matched up in polling in those states but I'm sure the data is available and would be interesting to see.

At the moment Sanders beats Trump in multiple head to head polls not only nationally but in those states that won Trump the election. Some of these polls are also within the margin of error, but no more so than any of the other democratic candidates. He also has the highest favorability and head to head vs Trump polling for independents in the latest poll that I linked earlier. I still need to look at other recent independent preference polls to see an average as that would give an even better indication.

This polling can certainly change as time goes on and I'll take into account new and updated information as it comes but right now his claim that Sanders hasn't shown his appeal to independent voters is not supported by the evidence.
 
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The_Animus said:
No. It would be much closer. In addition Sanders polls better in a head to head matchup vs Trump and with independents. If the goal is to beat a Trump, then the dems picking her would be shooting themselves in the foot. At least according to current polling.
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Most head to head polling against Trump at the moment is close to or totally irrelevant. Klobuchar has got very little press up to now.
 
Loss Leader said:
Andrew Yang has suspended his campaign, making him absolutely the last person who ever thought the president could be Andrew Yang.
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For an unknown he did pretty well, raising his main issue on the debate stage. Now that the primaries have started it makes sense he moves aside so that those who supported him can now throw their weight behind someone with a chance. He was consistently polling over 3% which doesn’t sound a lot, but can make the difference in this race.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Anyone notice he didn't even get 90% of the NH vote?
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It's an open primary. Could be a lot of crossovers.

I crossed over for the first time in my life in 2016 to vote against Trump. I could see myself doing it again depending on how the race looks in Michigan next month.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Anyone notice he didn't even get 90% of the NH vote?
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Trump went to NH and instructed Republicans to vote for "the weakest" Democrat. So: a) screw Trump; and b) the open primary is not a good barometer of real appeal of any candidate.
 
acbytesla said:
I'd disagree with you about Sanders. Being from Vermont pretty much makes him a favourite son. And now moderates are dropping out of the race and their support is not likely to go to Sanders. And if Warren continues to falter, it seems as if Klobuchar will be the likely beneficiary.

Warren and Biden have 3 weeks to right the ship or they're toast.
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Fivethirtyeight has Bernie's odds of having enough half of all committed delegates by the convention at 38% right now. That's down from earlier today but he's still quite comfortably the favorite; in fact the #2 possibility is that nobody has enough committed delegates.

Klobuchar's rise is an asset to Bernie. It pits him as the candidate of the left against two mid-western moderates and a billionaire (Steyer) going into Nevada and South Carolina (with another billionaire waiting in the wings on Super Tuesday). Klobuchar's polling among blacks is even worse than Buttigieg's; in the Quinnipiac national survey I linked yesterday, she had zero percent.
 
Loss Leader said:
Trump went to NH and instructed Republicans to vote for "the weakest" Democrat. So: a) screw Trump; and b) the open primary is not a good barometer of real appeal of any candidate.
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Neither was the caucus where the loudest people run the show.

I still have to hope some Republicans are not part of the cult. Another month and we'll see.
 
The_Animus said:
Cool. Another poster here who ignores what head to head polling vs Trump and what polling of independents actually shows.
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I watch the head to head polling. But remember no one has started running against Trump yet. The choice is still a Democrat against Trump.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Which he ended, didn't he? And said it was a mistake?
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He didn't end it. The courts ended it when they ruled in unconstitutional, which it obviously was since day 1. Bloomberg was a fierce advocate until the bitter end.

Why should the public trust Bloomberg again when he has shown himself to be so cavalier with constitutional rights? Would you trust Trump if he stopped locking up asylum seekers tomorrow and said he was sorry?

Bloomberg has shown himself to have a nasty authoritarian streak. We should not entrust him with even greater police powers.
 
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Belz... said:
I wonder if his drop in popularity happened because of Trump's nonsense about his son and Ukraine, or if it would have happened anyway.
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I suspect that Biden was always a paper tiger. All indications are that he ran a terrible ground game in Iowa. Many reports of a very light campaign schedule and fairly poor enthusiasm and turnout for regular voters.

Early polling doesn't mean much because most people aren't really interested enough in politics that far out. When people started to really pay attention, the inadequacies of the Biden campaign became glaring.
 
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SuburbanTurkey said:
I suspect that Biden was always a paper tiger. All indications are that he ran a terrible ground game in Iowa. Many reports of a very light campaign schedule and fairly poor enthusiasm and turnout for regular voters.

Early polling doesn't mean much because most people aren't really interested enough in politics that far out. When people started to really pay attention, the inadequacies of the Biden campaign became apparent.
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It’s not simply the campaign. The man himself is inadequate.
 
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