2020 Democratic Candidates Tracker Part III

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Brainster said:
As for Warren v Klobuchar, Warren is doing better 10%-4% on the currently supporting part of the poll. But neither of them is going far at this point. Warren had a third in Iowa and is looking at a third or a fourth in New Hampshire. If Klobuchar can sneak into third she might have a chance to continue, but that same poll shows her currently with 0% support among blacks. Even Buttigieg has 4% among that demo, and he's largely considered a non-starter for that exact reason.
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Actually, the African American vote is probably the thing that worries me most about the 2020 election.

In 2016, the Democrats won the majority of that demographic, and Clinton got the most support in the primaries; however, turnout was less in the general election than for Obama. I'm worried about a repeat in 2020....

- Biden is the one that has had the most support among Black voters, but his campaign is failing and he probably won't make it to the convention
- Warren is likewise struggling in the primaries.
- I can't see Yang, Steyer or any of the other candidates who were shut out in Iowa making it to the convention either. Same with Klobuchar
- Buttigieg has a legacy of his time as mayor when he failed to handle problems of racism properly
- Bloomberg has the issue of Stop and Frisk in his background
- While Sanders doesn't seem to have any problems dealing with the African American community, he didn't really have much success with that demographic in 2016, and he still seems to be having trouble winning their support this time around.

We could be in a situation again where African American voters decide to stay home on voting day because whomever the candidate is, they won't be that exciting to black voters.
 
Brainster said:
Holy crap you must not remember the way Obama's fans described him in 2008.
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I certainly remember the "cult of personality" and "messiah" complaints people had about us. I could swear some people in this thread were making them.
 
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Brainster said:
And the poll is of registered voters, not likely voters as the pollsters will use later in the year. Polls of registered voters tend to overestimate the Democrats (for the simple reason that Republicans are more likely to vote in general).

As for Warren v Klobuchar, Warren is doing better 10%-4% on the currently supporting part of the poll. But neither of them is going far at this point. Warren had a third in Iowa and is looking at a third or a fourth in New Hampshire. If Klobuchar can sneak into third she might have a chance to continue, but that same poll shows her currently with 0% support among blacks. Even Buttigieg has 4% among that demo, and he's largely considered a non-starter for that exact reason.

So cross off Warren, Klobuchar and Buttigieg. Biden looks to be headed for the retirement home. Which realistically leaves Sanders and the two billionaires.
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I've seen Bloomberg make large gains across the board in recent polls. If the moderates fail to get together, then it looks like he made a good strategy for being the Never Bernie candidate.
 
Segnosaur said:
Not sure what you mean by 'predictive power'.

Do you mean how well it will match what happens on election day? Then at this point no, election day is too far out.

Or do you mean how many states/electoral college votes will be won? Again, I'd have to say probably not. I don't think they've broken down the results on a state-by-state basis.
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If it doesn't say anything about how these candidates will do against trump, is it good news?
 
Venom said:
You replied approvingly to JoeMorgue's rant.
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What are you even talking about?

Are you imagining things? First of all, I looked and I have no idea what you're refering to. Second, even if I did reply "approvingly", whatever that means, still has nothing to do with what you responded with.
 
Segnosaur said:
The poll also shows:
- Sanders leads among all voters who lean Democratic, followed by Biden and Bloomberg
- Trump's approval rating sits at 42%
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It's pretty telling that Trump's approval is so low. For any other president, a humming economy like this one would practically guarantee a re-election.

The strong economy is a gift to Trump, but he doesn't seem to be gaining that much from it.
 
Belz... said:
Well, I don't think most Sanders supporters are like that, but some are, and the scary thing is that it mirrors Trump cultists.
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I mean, for every charismatic political leader, there are going to people who take the personality worship too far. Obama's most strident supporters are no exception either, and even a boring candidate like Hillary had her PantSuit Nation warriors.


I don't think this is an argument against running an enthusiastic campaign. Some people will take it too far. Bernie isn't out there telling these people he will pay their legal bills if they thump skulls on his behalf, so I don't see him as cynically wielding this energy like Trump is.
 
SuburbanTurkey said:
I mean, for every charismatic political leader, there are going to people who take the personality worship too far. Obama's most strident supporters are no exception either, and even a boring candidate like Hillary had her PantSuit Nation warriors.
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People do like to get excited over things. The only candidate that doesn't have a cult of some degree is Warren, and that's because her admirers bask in the radiance of her divine sagacity, enhancing their ratiocination and preventing distorted thinking for they are the elect, devoted to the Chosen One, and the cosmos sheds its grace upon them.
 
Belz... said:
Well, I don't think most Sanders supporters are like that, but some are, and the scary thing is that it mirrors Trump cultists.
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First of all, I agree with you that not all supporters are as completely one-eyed as dudalb says they are. But secondly, the criticism doesn’t make a lot of sense. Supporters who are campaigning for Sanders are expected to talk up their favourite candidate. That’s the nature of political campaigning!

The Trump fans know this and their candidate won!
 
TragicMonkey said:
People do like to get excited over things. The only candidate that doesn't have a cult of some degree is Warren, and that's because her admirers bask in the radiance of her divine sagacity, enhancing their ratiocination and preventing distorted thinking for they are the elect, devoted to the Chosen One, and the cosmos sheds its grace upon them.
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Stand back, everyone! He’s going clear!
 
Tsukasa Buddha said:
I've seen Bloomberg make large gains across the board in recent polls. If the moderates fail to get together, then it looks like he made a good strategy for being the Never Bernie candidate.
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I have to admit that when Bloomberg first announced I was skeptical because of the lateness and the number of candidates in the field, but I also have to admit, I am starting to like him for the choice. Sadly due to the late start and that he is funding his own campaign, so couldn't met the donor requirements, he hasn't been able to be in the debates up until now (he has a week to have 2 more polls showing him over 10% or needs enough write in in NH to get a delegate) but from what I have seen and read, I do like his policies, and best of all, Trump would hate facing off against a real Billionaire who actually knows something about politics.
 
Segnosaur said:
- While Sanders doesn't seem to have any problems dealing with the African American community, he didn't really have much success with that demographic in 2016, and he still seems to be having trouble winning their support this time around.

We could be in a situation again where African American voters decide to stay home on voting day because whomever the candidate is, they won't be that exciting to black voters.
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This doesn't appear to be true. According to NYT:

And with Mr. Sanders surging days before voting begins with the Iowa caucuses, an intriguing theme has emerged: Much of his momentum, polling shows, owes to the support of nonwhite voters — particularly African-American and Hispanic Democrats.
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You were correct in that it dogged him last time, but he appears to have made a change so that won't happen again. It sites stats from Texas and California with the article less than two weeks old. He's actually beating Biden among POC nationally:

It’s not just happening in Texas and California, and Latinos are not the only voters of color supporting Mr. Sanders to a significant degree. A national CNN poll released last week found Mr. Sanders pulling 30 percent of all nonwhite voters to Mr. Biden’s 27 percent.
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Bloomberg speech in which he explains his reasoning for stop and frisk. Not sure how you can categorize this as anything but a policy of systematic racism.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1227067093692055553

95% of your murder -- murderers and murder victims fit one MO. You can just take the description, Xerox it, and pass it out to all the cops. They are, minorities, sixteen to twenty-five.

... snip for brevity...

You spend the money on a lot of cops in the streets. Put the cops where the crime is, which means in minority neighborhoods.

One of the unintended consequences is people say, "Oh my God, you're arresting kids for marijuana that are all minorities." Yeah, that's true. Why? Because we put all the cops in minority neighborhoods.
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plague311 said:
While Sanders doesn't seem to have any problems dealing with the African American community, he didn't really have much success with that demographic in 2016, and he still seems to be having trouble winning their support this time around.

We could be in a situation again where African American voters decide to stay home on voting day because whomever the candidate is, they won't be that exciting to black voters.
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This doesn't appear to be true. According to NYT:

You were correct in that it dogged him last time, but he appears to have made a change so that won't happen again. It sites stats from Texas and California with the article less than two weeks old. He's actually beating Biden among POC nationally:

It’s not just happening in Texas and California, and Latinos are not the only voters of color supporting Mr. Sanders to a significant degree. A national CNN poll released last week found Mr. Sanders pulling 30 percent of all nonwhite voters to Mr. Biden’s 27 percent.
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I can't access the NYT article (paywall), but does the polling information they reference separate out african american from Latino voters? From the segment you provided, it seems like they lump them all together as 'non-white'.

The latest polling information I have seen (that separates out black voters) is that Sanders is actually #3 in that demographic, behind Joe "Everyone else has abandoned me" Biden and Michael "Stop and Frisk" Bloomberg.

Even if his support has increased among black voters, it trails behind his support among white voters. And it even trails behind a guy who brought in a policing policy that is widely seen as racist.

From: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/bloomberg-leads-sanders-among-black-voters-new-poll-121971
The Quinnipiac poll, which surveyed 665 Democratic voters between Feb. 5-9, found that 22 percent of black voters support Bloomberg. That puts him second behind former Vice President Joe Biden (27 percent) and ahead of Bernie Sanders (19 percent) with black voters.
 
SuburbanTurkey said:
Bloomberg speech in which he explains his reasoning for stop and frisk. Not sure how you can categorize this as anything but a policy of systematic racism.
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Yup, Bloomberg had a policy that was rightly seen as racist.

However, for what it's worth:

1) Bloomberg has admitted the policy was wrong. Now, you might say that it was just him playing politics with his upcoming presidential run, but its not like he was trying to hide the fact

https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/17/politics/michael-bloomberg-stop-and-frisk-apology/index.html

2) Trump may be trying to suggest Bloomberg is racist over the policy, but Trump had actually supported the Stop and Frisk policy himself, even suggesting at one point that it should be implemented country-wide.

https://twitter.com/marcacaputo/status/1227241465144922112?s=21
 
Segnosaur said:
Yup, Bloomberg had a policy that was rightly seen as racist.

However, for what it's worth:

1) Bloomberg has admitted the policy was wrong. Now, you might say that it was just him playing politics with his upcoming presidential run, but its not like he was trying to hide the fact

https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/17/politics/michael-bloomberg-stop-and-frisk-apology/index.html

2) Trump may be trying to suggest Bloomberg is racist over the policy, but Trump had actually supported the Stop and Frisk policy himself, even suggesting at one point that it should be implemented country-wide.

https://twitter.com/marcacaputo/status/1227241465144922112?s=21
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Yes, now that it's been ruled unconstitutional and he's not mayor, he no longer defends it. Not exactly stunning moral leadership that inspires confidence.

The policy was blatantly racist and an gross abuse of police power since day 1. The only thing that has changed is that it is no longer politically expedient for Bloomberg to support it, so he doesn't. This isn't the kind of thing that should just go away with a half-assed apology.
 
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From David Sirota, Bernie's media critic, in reference to national polls showing Bernie in the lead:

It's time for reporters to ask the other candidates, think tanks, operatives and Democratic groups if they will support the eventual nominee -- as frequently, incessantly and obsessively as that question has been asked of Bernie Sanders
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https://twitter.com/davidsirota/status/1227268429167513600
 
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