2020 Democratic Candidates Tracker Part III

[dudalb]

That's funny, I thought it was based on the polls that show Sanders over Trump.

Which polls?
And if it's an overall poll ,it means crap. In the end, it will be decided by a few swing states. Bernie could get 80% of the vote in the solid blue states,but if he loses in the Purple states it will do him no good.

 

[SezMe]

Trump is already doing us a favor by getting our voters to turn out in large numbers.

Really? From what I've read, the Iowa turnout was ho-hum.

 

[Venom]

Even if he gets elected,and gets a Democratic Congress, I doubt Bernie could get his policies through. They are just too radical, they want,almost overnight to turn the US into a Europaen style Social Democracy. I just don't think a majority of the American people want that, even though they want change.
If nothing else, "Medicare for everybody" will scare off voters who might not object to some form of UHC, but don't want to lose their coverage for a program which nobody really knows what will look like.

I think there will be enough non-progressive voters who just want Trump out to swing the election to the nominee.

I know a couple of prominent communists who went so far as to vote for Hillary Clinton in 2016 to avoid a Trump presidency. And like I've said, 25 percent of voters who vote Biden also say they'd vote for Sanders.

I think a lot of voters around the country are willing to vote for just about anybody to get Trump out.

 

[SezMe]

No, no it will not. It will mean that individual states will decide whether abortion is legal within that state, and a LOT of states will keep it legal. There is no push to have abortion declared illegal by the judiciary, not even among abortion opponents. That's just not a thing.

Very careful (and appropriate) wording there, Zig. The same cannot be said of the congressional branch at both the state and federal level.

 

[SezMe]

One wonders what a President Yang would do, in 2024. Send FEC auditors to supervise the Democratic caucuses?

If we're lucky and the DNC has any sense at all, we've seen the last of Dem caucuses.

 

[SezMe]

ETA: Is it conceivable that, since things were screwed up anyway, that they decided to hold back results until after the SOTU to try and steal a news cycle? I just can't imagine how they haven't managed to get any more precincts in for the last three hours.

More likely that since nobody gives a **** any more, they aren't working very hard at it. People will react to any final release of the results with, "Iowa, where's that?"

 

[Cabbage]

Which polls?
And if it's an overall poll ,it means crap. In the end, it will be decided by a few swing states. Bernie could get 80% of the vote in the solid blue states,but if he loses in the Purple states it will do him no good.

The vast majority of these:

PA: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_sanders-6862.html


MI: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_sanders-6768.html


WI: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_sanders-6850.html


To sample a few key states.

Do you have some vast pool of hidden polls that indicate otherwise?

 

[dudalb]

I think there will be enough non-progressive voters who just want Trump out to swing the election to the nominee.

I know a couple of prominent communists who went so far as to vote for Hillary Clinton in 2016 to avoid a Trump presidency. And like I've said, 25 percent of voters who vote Biden also say they'd vote for Sanders.

I think a lot of voters around the country are willing to vote for just about anybody to get Trump out.

But where are those voters?
If they are not in a few swing states it does not matter.

 

[SezMe]

I am beginning to think we will see the Dems begin a convention with no candidate with a majority of the delegates.

It's becoming more likely.

 

[dudalb]

Bernie is going to have to find a way to reach out beyond his core following to win in November. I think he is going to have to be able to shed the "eternal 60's radical" image to win.
I think he is going to have to modify some of his positions, like 'Medicare for All" which will scare off people who do not want to lose their coverage to be replaced by something which nobody knows what it willlook like.
But if Sanders does these things, some of his core supporters will scream "Sell Out".

 

[dudalb]

I think there will be enough non-progressive voters who just want Trump out to swing the election to the nominee.

I know a couple of prominent communists who went so far as to vote for Hillary Clinton in 2016 to avoid a Trump presidency. And like I've said, 25 percent of voters who vote Biden also say they'd vote for Sanders.

I think a lot of voters around the country are willing to vote for just about anybody to get Trump out.

You find nothing worng with supporters of a system that has killed Tens of Millions of people world wide? I would not like to know such people.

 

[Venom]

But where are those voters?
If they are not in a few swing states it does not matter.

True.

Did you look at the polls Cabbage has shared for the fifth or so time now?

I'm not giving too much weight to them at the moment, but it's probably better than speculating what would or wouldn't turn voters away. If we can say Trump is still competitive in the battleground states, we can say Sanders is as well.

 

[Cabbage]

But where are those voters?
If they are not in a few swing states it does not matter.

I just posted some polls showing you those voters, dude. You keep complaining there is no evidence supporting Sanders, and I'll tell you what the problem is: You're ignoring the evidence placed right in front of you!

 

[Venom]

You find nothing worng with supporters of a system that has killed Tens of Millions of people world wide? I would not like to know such people.

What are you talking about?

Yes I find things wrong with Marxism. But there are various interpretations of Marx. I know (not personally) American Marxists too and they're strictly not like the people in the history books you cringe reading about. In fact by it's very nature these people's ideology gets watered down with a sort of socialist realism as I like to call it.

They must know they cannot really capture the means of production in the United States. I mean they voted for Hillary and were branded as neoliberal stooges and traitors by the more entrenched members of their organizations.

Please stop blithely misinterpreting people's comments.

 

[The_Animus]

The vast majority of these:

PA: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_sanders-6862.html


MI: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_sanders-6768.html


WI: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_sanders-6850.html


To sample a few key states.

Do you have some vast pool of hidden polls that indicate otherwise?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Used to be that you could win a $mil with that mind-reading skill.

Just going by what was said in the posts.

Maybe if I could read minds I'd know there was some substance behind the shallow arguments being made.

 

[The_Animus]

But where are those voters?
If they are not in a few swing states it does not matter.

Why do you keep ignoring people who have repeatedly pointed out that Sanders consistently wins in polling vs Trump both for general election polling and in key states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which won Trump the election in 2016

 

[Aridas]

Like most things, it's probably a confluence of many factors.

Pete is competing with Biden for the centrist lane of the party and Biden has tremendous advantages that make him more supported among the black populace. Sanders is second in support, but notably mostly with young black voters and not the older population. Perhaps if Biden were not a factor, Pete might gain more traction. Hard to say.

There is some speculation that black voters don't like Pete because the black population is generally more homophobic than the rest of the party. No idea if that's true or significant.

Probably, not particularly different from white voters attitudes, honestly, last I heard. With that said, I could poke back at the opinion of a group of older black men that I saw and linked to earlier in the thread. Buttigieg, to them, looks like a kid in way over his head. Which... I find to be an entirely fair assessment. When it comes to Biden, their support was more transactional than anything else. Biden would know that he owes them the most and thus would be somewhat forced to do more for them. Bernie, they liked, but expected that rich liberals just wouldn't vote for him. Warren was good all around, but just wasn't as strongly supported as Biden.

I like that people not starving, living on the streets, dying of curable illnesses and not being price gouged for essential medication is now viewed as 'Too socialist'.

In the richest country in the world.

Where Jeff pays 16KUSD in parking fines so he doesn't have to walk too far.

Behold the damage done by the GOP.

If we're lucky and the DNC has any sense at all, we've seen the last of Dem caucuses.

I'm honestly uncertain how much the DNC has to do with that, but don't think that it's all that much. I'm pretty sure that state law is what actually matters there. The end of caucuses would be good, though.

 

[Segnosaur]

Why do you keep ignoring people who have repeatedly pointed out that Sanders consistently wins in polling vs Trump both for general election polling and in key states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which won Trump the election in 2016

As has been pointed out... we are concerned that, even though Sanders is polling OK both nationally and in many states, he has not been subject to any sort of sustained attack as (for example) Biden has.. Both the republicans and the other democrats are treating him with kid gloves to a certain extent.

(And yes, Trump has said a couple of bad things about Sanders, like calling him 'communist', but so far his attacks have been limited.)

And negative campaign ads have worked in the past: the Willy Horton ads were wildly successful in the 1988 presidental election.

That's why some people are nervous.

It doesn't necessarily mean that Sanders won't still win. But its an unknown factor that could really blow up on the Democrats. And the typical response by Sanders supporters is just to handwave it away.

 

[Cabbage]

As has been pointed out... we are concerned that, even though Sanders is polling OK both nationally and in many states, he has not been subject to any sort of sustained attack as (for example) Biden has.. Both the republicans and the other democrats are treating him with kid gloves to a certain extent.

Ah, but that's not at all what dudalb was saying:

Yeah, like a website that takes pride in naming itself after the Jabobins who gave us the Reign Of Terror are a group you should name yourself after.

Sorry, but every argument for Bernie winning in November I have heard is based on the idea that there is a vast pool of hidden left wing voters out there who will come out for the right candidate.

....which I demonstrated was incorrect.


Yes, I'm aware of your concern that Sanders won't hold up to the attacks if he wins the nomination. Why does dudalb keep making a different (and incorrect) complaint about some mythical lost pool of voters? (That's a rhetorical question; I don't expect you to answer for dudalb. I would prefer a response from dudalb, but he rarely responds to me).