2020 Democratic Candidates Tracker Part III

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Brainster said:
Bernie is now at 40.8% to win the nomination, according to London bookies. that's up about a percentage point today. Biden is at 32.4%, but he's got a lot more variance in the quotes being offered by different betting shops; his odds range from 26% to 38%.

Warren is also getting a little bounce in her chances; she's back up to 9.8% after being down to 7.7% yesterday. So far no change in the shares of Klobuchar preferred.

BTW, that Des Moines Register poll? Apparently showed Biden in fourth place.
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According to Fivethirtyeight, it was only shelved because one pollster had enlarged her screen and missed off a randomized last name presumably meaning that any discrepancies could have averaged out - or, more likely, they could have just excluded her data from the poll.

Do you have a source for the poll results?
 
Oh, just listening to Nate Silver. He’s clearly saying “hypothetically” the poll (and previous one had Biden in fourth.
 
No results from any of the caucuses in Iowa from last night. None. Zero.
The media and the candidates alike are flummoxed (and sheepishly laughing) -- spending all that time and effort to open in Iowa and it was useless. Now after all the hype everybody will drop Iowa like a hot potato and we won't hear anything more about that state in general for the next four years.

Coincidentally, I was having Apple-related phone and computer issues around prime time last night. There was an automatic iTunes download (which I thought I had turned off) and now stuff is working weirdly. Will the reporting problems come down to a problem with an iPhone app?
 
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What an absolute trainwreck. Iowa Democratic Party really **** the bed, and there's been no official result so far.

Bernie has released numbers that were collected by his volunteers in all precincts showing him as the overall winner and Pete a few points behind. Biden performed quite poorly.

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1224578266851356672

If Pete is the official winner or close second, I look forward to all the "Bernie is unelectable" folks turning the same critical lens to Pete. Pete's largest electoral victory until now was winning mayor of a small college town. 8,500 people voted for him. Pete polls among the worst in hypothetical "vs Trump" matchups.

Looking forward to David Frum's "Pete can't win" piece in the Atlantic. Any time now.
 
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dudalb said:
I am beginning to wonder if what happened in 1972 is not repeating itself where the GOP managed to damage the more viable Democratic candidates and ended up helping the nomination of a candidate who had no chance in November.
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That sounds like a devious but smart strategy.
 
Cabbage said:
Sure you can. Read one of them and you see dudalb thinks Sanders has no chance in the general. Read another one and it's because he thinks Sanders is too far left. Read another and he's bemoaning the fact that progressives are supporting him.
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As I said, you can't add comments together as if they are numbers.

It's not that hard to put it all together, really.
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Not being hard doesn't make something true.

They say precisely what I claimed they would say. It's not my fault you refuse to acknowledge that.
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You can't win an argument by insisting that you're right. You've not established that dudalb's posts lead to your conclusion.

Think of it this way: Progressives could LOATHE Sanders, and dudalb could agree with them, and he could still think Sanders will lose because he's too far left. The opposite could be true as well, so there's no causal connection between those two positions that leads to support being the cause for his potential loss. In fact, if Sanders had enough support, he'd win.

you didn't think I could back up my claim
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I was right.

Get over it.
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You get over it.
 
dudalb said:
That Bernie cannot come off as anything but the eternal Sixties radical will not help much.
His supporters love it, I think it is a turn off to most voters, though.
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Say, dudalb, could you clarify to cabbage whether you think Sanders is likely to lose because he was support from progressive voters?
 
dudalb said:
ALl I can say is if Bernie wins. the pressure will be on him to show he can beat Trump in November, and he and his supporters will have to come up with much better evidence then they have shown so far. Something better then the Lost Tribe school of politics.
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You mean evidence besides him consistently beating Trump in head to head general election polling?
 
If Biden becomes toast at the primary level I think that would end discussion of his electability. I know it is isn’t the general, but as JoeMorgue says, this is the Democratic Party primaries. If they don’t want him, he has no hope in the general.
 
angrysoba said:
If Biden becomes toast at the primary level I think that would end discussion of his electability. I know it is isn’t the general, but as JoeMorgue says, this is the Democratic Party primaries. If they don’t want him, he has no hope in the general.
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Not necessarily true. Electability in a general election and popularity with left wing activists are not necessarily the same (see Jeremy corbyn as an example - perhaps the opposite of Biden’s situation)
 
angrysoba said:
If Biden becomes toast at the primary level I think that would end discussion of his electability. I know it is isn’t the general, but as JoeMorgue says, this is the Democratic Party primaries. If they don’t want him, he has no hope in the general.
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That only makes sense if one assumes that the Democrats and other left-leaning voters would not vote for him against Trump. Something I see little evidence for.
 
Here's the issue.

Sanders and Yang's supporter bases are the only ones playing the "If my candidate doesn't get the nomination I'm taking my ball and going home" game. *

The thing is they are trying to spin that "My way or the highway" mentality into making it sound like their candidate has more support by ignoring the raw numbers and the entire concept of politics.

It's a trap question. If they prove more Sanders supporters will take their ball and go home if they don't get their way, they think that means they've proved Sanders is the stronger candidate.

* Only 50% of Yang supporters and 53% of Sanders supporters answered "Yes" when asked if they will vote for the Democratic Nominee if it is not their preferred choice.

https://www.newsweek.com/andrew-yan...r-nominee-democratic-unity-msnbc-poll-1485241
 
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SezMe said:
Doesn't matter. That's how the GOP will paint it - to great effect. Any cadidate (primary or final) who talks of reparations is too stupid a candidate to win.
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Yet, with the exception of Biden, all the front runners have staked a position.

The issue is the club the Republicans are keeping hidden behind their backs with which they will brain us come the general.
 
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