Cont: Brexit: Now What? 9 Below Zero

[Samson]

Things have progressed a step further now



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49970267

Looks like Boris Johnson will get his no deal Brexit after all

like I say, get 3 to 1 on Ladbrokes for a buffer. This looks like a beautiful hedge

Article 50 Extended And UK Remains In EU After Oct 31
To happen on or before Oct 31 2019
1.33
UK to leave EU with No Deal
To happen on or before Oct 31 2019
4.00
UK to leave EU with Deal
To happen on or before Oct 31 2019
17.00

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/uk/uk-politics/eu-specials/225327493/

 

[Klimax]

Anyone seen a set of goalposts anywhere? The have been somewhat odd looking....

Are you sure you have seen any brexit goalposts? Any in this universe?

 

[Darat]

The only way that UK agriculture will be able to survive post-Brexit will be for the UK government to heavily subsidise it. Unfortunately this means that the EU will introduce heavy tariffs to counteract those subsidies which will kill our biggest export market

Nonsense. When we remove all those pesky regulations our farmers will be able to compete against the world!

 

[Parsman]

Sadly that will work on at least 50% of the UK population who will end up blaming the EU for everything and as a result will make bad decisions for a couple of generations

England's population. Every electoral district in Scotland voted remain. N Ireland and Gibraltar voted remain too.

 

[GlennB]

like I say, get 3 to 1 on Ladbrokes for a buffer. This looks like a beautiful hedge

Article 50 Extended And UK Remains In EU After Oct 31
To happen on or before Oct 31 2019
1.33
UK to leave EU with No Deal
To happen on or before Oct 31 2019
4.00
UK to leave EU with Deal
To happen on or before Oct 31 2019
17.00

Only if Oct 31st is a special date for the punter. Otherwise those odds have to be watered down in light of the fact that we could leave with no deal after that date.

But I think I mentioned this before

 

[Samson]

Only if Oct 31st is a special date for the punter. Otherwise those odds have to be watered down in light of the fact that we could leave with no deal after that date.

But I think I mentioned this before

The way I read it, they are saying strong chance article 50 is extended. I can't see your point.

 

[ponderingturtle]

Presumably the traditional party of law and order isn't planning to follow the law. I'm struggling to work out in what sense Boris can be described by the adjective "conservative."

Dave

Laws are for the Plebs of course.

 

[The Don]

The way I read it, they are saying strong chance article 50 is extended. I can't see your point.

Well it means that unless Parliament does something it has been unable to do for the last three years, agree on a positive outcome whether it's the Withdrawal Agreement, another deal or revoking article 50 that the UK will crash out with no deal at the end of the extension.

During the extension we could have a general election. Currently the Conservatives are heavy favourites to win a majority in that election. IMO The Conservatives will be campaigning on no-deal to avoid the Brexit Party splitting the swivel-eyed loon vote which means that no deal is the most likely outcome of an election.

In the event that there isn't any overall majority for any one party we're likely back to square one with no agreement.

If Labour win a majority we'll have a period of uncertainty while Jeremy Corbyn attempts to negotiate a fantastical Brexit deal followed by crashing out with no deal when the extension ends.

 

[catsmate]

Nonsense. When we remove all those pesky regulations our farmers will be able to compete against the world!

Absolutely. You can look forward to US-style food 'enhancements' like:

• GMO corn and soy (practically harmless compared to the rest)
• Ractopamine "enhanced" beef, porn and turkey
• BVO laced soft drinks (but at least it'll keep the Brits from igniting)
• Arsenic enhanced chicken
• Brominated (via potassium bromate) breads. They'll be whiter...
• Cereals, butter substitutes, meat and nuts preserved with BHA and BHT
• Milk from cows dosed with recombinant bovine growth hormone

 

[Samson]

Well it means that unless Parliament does something it has been unable to do for the last three years, agree on a positive outcome whether it's the Withdrawal Agreement, another deal or revoking article 50 that the UK will crash out with no deal at the end of the extension.

During the extension we could have a general election. Currently the Conservatives are heavy favourites to win a majority in that election. IMO The Conservatives will be campaigning on no-deal to avoid the Brexit Party splitting the swivel-eyed loon vote which means that no deal is the most likely outcome of an election.

In the event that there isn't any overall majority for any one party we're likely back to square one with no agreement.

If Labour win a majority we'll have a period of uncertainty while Jeremy Corbyn attempts to negotiate a fantastical Brexit deal followed by crashing out with no deal when the extension ends.

An extension means a structural circuit breaker must be found and the only logical path is a referendum that should have been held in the first place, (remain) or (leave with specific pre agreed conditions).

 

[GlennB]

The way I read it, they are saying strong chance article 50 is extended. I can't see your point.

You stated the 4.0 (3-1, UK style odds) was a 'hedge'. A hedge against what? That's my point, and already stated clearly.

 

[Dave Rogers]

• Ractopamine "enhanced" beef, porn and turkey

More than it's enhanced already??

Dave

 

[GlennB]

[*] Ractopamine "enhanced" beef, porn and turkey

Is that a bad thing? I have no idea

 

[Samson]

You stated the 4.0 (3-1, UK style odds) was a 'hedge'. A hedge against what? That's my point, and already stated clearly.

For a business about to incur massive losses with a no deal brexit. But if you believe an extension only moves the date of a no deal brexit then it is not a good hedge. But I don't see a no deal brexit after an extension as being a plausible outcome.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

True for both sides. The EU's treaty is unacceptable for the UK parliament, the UK government's proposal is unacceptable for the EU.

The question the EU should really be asking themselves is which is the more unacceptable to them: Boris's proposed deal or no deal - and then choose the lesser of two evils. But Benn's Bill has given them a third option to cling to - the hope that we will eventually agree to remain.

Leaving with no deal is also unacceptable to the UK Parliament but Bojo wants to do it anyway. More MPs support the EU deal than leaving without one.

So a deal with the EU satisfies the EU, more MPs than no deal and is also what people voted for in the referendum. Ergo....

 

[Garrison]

I don't doubt Boris and his cronies are plotting to bring about a No Deal Brexit, I simply suspect their own ineptitude will thwart them.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

For a business about to incur massive losses with a no deal brexit. But if you believe an extension only moves the date of a no deal brexit then it is not a good hedge. But I don't see a no deal brexit after an extension as being a plausible outcome.

I think if they extend to January and have an election where the Tories get a majority no deal.becomes likely because there wouldnt be the numbers in parliament to stop it and i cant see the EU caving on a deal.

 

[lomiller]

The EU's treaty is unacceptable for the UK parliament, the UK government's proposal is unacceptable for the EU.

The UK’s proposal is not viable and is therefor unacceptable to anyone with common sense. The EU’s proposal doesn’t suffer the same problem.

The question the EU should really be asking themselves is which is the more unacceptable to them: Boris's proposed deal or no deal - and then choose the lesser of two evils.

Very easy decision for the EU. Nearly all the negative effects of a no-deal fall on the UK, so there is no way the EU wouldn't prefer no-deal to the mess the UK offered up.

 

[lomiller]

"enhanced" beef, porn and turkey

Porn has always relied heavily on "enhancements".

 

[The Don]

I don't doubt Boris and his cronies are plotting to bring about a No Deal Brexit, I simply suspect their own ineptitude will thwart them.

The fact that it is the default is heavily in their favour