Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

[The Don]

Meanwhile it seems that Boris Johnson and his team are doing their customary sterling job in Europe - talking without saying anything.

The government's version

"We're having conversations this week which pick up on last week's discussions," one official says, "and we've agreed where to focus talks in the future."

The EU's version

But while the government says progress is being made, the EU insists no formal proposals have been tabled.

"We want to keep this going," an EU source says. "But at some point the UK needs to give us a proposal. We can't negotiate without one."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49662531

Given the number of proven lies from this government, I know which I am minded to believe.

The UK is apparently hamstrung by the fact that there's nearly no-one left to do the negotiations:

But nearly all the UK officials in the Brexit negotiations that produced the current withdrawal agreement, including the backstop, are no longer involved in the process.

"The core of the UK's negotiating team has gone," Joe Owen, of the Institute for Government, says.

"They've either left Whitehall altogether or gone to other jobs across government. There's been a big loss of institutional knowledge."

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Exactly.

Why the hell the media (the Beeb in particular) refrain from pointing this out is really frustrating.



No Deal is not the end of Brexit...it's the start.

We're in a global race and some people really don't like our car. And they were persuaded we could easily trade it in for a better one over which we'd have greater control.
Now it turns out getting a great trade in deal isn't as simple as we were assured. So Boris intends to solve it by selling the old car outright.

But then we won't have a car. We voted for a new car.

Oh, no, everyone clearly voted to sell the old car.

So there we are on Nov. 1st, at the WTO bus stop, while the rest of the Wacky Racers hurtle past.

Trump has hinted that he'd give us a lift, but nobody mentioned the price yet...

 

[The Don]

Trump has hinted that he'd give us a lift, but nobody mentioned the price yet...

Yes, but we also know he has a track record of failing to turn up, suddenly going in a completely different direction or just kicking people out of his car while he's travelling at speed so it's hardly a comforting thought.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1172015270589870081

Daily Mail has found some proper dirt on the Scottish judges who ruled prorogation to be unlawful. It turns out one has a "passion for France." Another is a "jazz lover" who predicted Brexit would be "an onerous task." Scandalous stuff

 

[carlosy]

Well, some winners at least:

BREXIT DISASTER CAPITALISM
£8 Billion Bet on No Deal Crash-Out by Boris Johnson's Leave Backers

While the Prime Minister defies the law and insists Britain will leave the European Union on 31 October, his backers stand to make billions out of the disaster.

-

Currently, £8,274,350,000 (£8.3 billion) of aggregate short positions has been taken out by hedge funds connected to the Prime Minister and his Vote Leave campaign, run by his advisor Dominic Cummings, on a ‘no deal’ Brexit.

https://bylinetimes.com/2019/09/11/...al-crash-out-by-boris-johnsons-leave-backers/

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Yellowhammer is a realistic worst case. It is what all government departments are currently preparing for.

Yellowhammer isn't worst case. That's called Black Swan.

Yellowhammer has been described like this:

A senior Whitehall source told the Sunday Times: “This is not Project Fear, this is the most realistic assessment of what the public face with no deal. These are likely, basic, reasonable scenarios – not the worst case.”

 

[Lothian]

Yellowhammer isn't worst case. That's called Black Swan.

Yellowhammer has been described like this:

Yes I added realistic. As mentioned it it what departments are assuming and working towards. While the EU could nuke us and that would be pretty bad (understatement) no department is working on nuclear shelters. However the are working on food shortages and border delays on the assumption that if they are prepared for the realistic worst case what happens will hopefully be easier to deal with.

 

[The Don]

OMFG, Brexit is now hitting John Lewis - PANIC !!11!!!!!!111!11!1!!!

John Lewis has fallen to a half-year loss and says a no-deal Brexit will have a "significant" impact.

The retailer said while it had prepared for no deal, it could not fully offset the effect and the impact on fresh food supplies was a concern.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49672393

 

[Information Analyst]

For those of you not planning on sleeping Open Yellowhammer is out.

""3. France will impose EU mandatory controls on UK goods on November 1 after a no deal Brexit and has already built infrastructure and IT system to manage and process customs declarations and support a risk based control regime."

In other words, France better prepared than the UK. Unsurprisingly.

"19. Up to 282 EU and EEA nations fishing vessels could enter illegally, or already be fishing in UK waters (Up to 129 vessels in English waters, 100 vessels in Scottish waters, 40 vessels in Welsh waters, 13 vessels in Northern Irish waters) on day one. This is likely to cause anger and frustration in the UK catching sector, which could lead to both clashes between fishing vessels and an increase in non-compliance in the domestic fleet."

Karma.

 

[Information Analyst]

bit naughty to redact that. claim of commercial sensitivity seems to be another lie

Also monumentally pointless, given that the unredacted version had already been leaked, and was sure to be revealed as soon as the redacted version was released. I'm trying to figure out why they thought it was worthy of a so easily removed figleaf.

 

[sphenisc]

Yellowhammer......who is the genius who that name for a crisis contingency plan was a good idea?
.

The song of the yellowhammer is usually described as

"A little bit of bread and no cheeeese"

I can't see any possible relevance to planning for a no-deal Brexit.

 

[The Don]

Also monumentally pointless, given that the unredacted version had already been leaked, and was sure to be revealed as soon as the redacted version was released. I'm trying to figure out why they thought it was worthy of a so easily removed figleaf.

It convinces people who couldn't be bothered to investigate ?

 

[ponderingturtle]

Yellowhammer is a realistic worst case. It is what all government departments are currently preparing for.

I thought it was expected case not worst case.

 

[catsmate]

the uk isnt a two party system

Basically it is. DUP and SF are a separate regional two-part system. The SNP dominates a third, against mainly Labour.

As Duverger's law states, plurality-rule elections (like FPTP) with single-member districts tends to create a two-party system.

 

[The Don]

Boris Johnson, proven liar, lies about not lying to the queen:

Boris Johnson has denied lying to the Queen over the advice he gave her over the five-week suspension of Parliament.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49674516

 

[catsmate]

According to the GRAUNIAD the original version says 'base case' not 'worst case'. So Michael Gove lied to the Commons.

Another of BoJo's cronies caught lying?

If that is the 'base case' I hate to think what the 'worst case' model looks like.

Stroke city in '69 to Ireland in 1919.

 

[catsmate]

This is the redacted part as claimed by a tweeter, Rosamund Urwin. According to the rest of Yellowhammer, the impact will be most severe on the lower income groups in t'Grim North. I can foresee long queues at the petrol stations just before 31 October 2019, with rationing having to be imposed. Fights breaking out amongst motorists.

Do these refineries supply fuel to keep manufacturing industries running smoothly (for example, plastics and cosmetics)? What is the likely impact on the closure of two refineries and the loss of 2,000 jobs that made Whitehall insist on redacting this paragraph as even more alarming than two-day delays of lorries bearing fresh food supplies, amongst other commodities?

Presumably there will be a knock on effect on the communities. Rather like when the mines were shut down.

Whole villages and towns dependent generation-to-generation on these jobs.

Yes, the six UK refineries produce millions of tonnes of petrochemical feedstock for various processes. Expect major protests, as have happened in the past.

 

[McHrozni]

Boris Johnson, proven liar, lies about not lying to the queen:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49674516

That's easily provable. All he needs to do is tell us, in public, what he told the queen and then she will tell us whether he was truthful or not. Her word is beyond reproach, BJ will be either vindicated or decapitated.

Both scenarios are positive for UK as a whole.

Well, BJ? Go public with it please.

McHrozni

 

[catsmate]

Which reminds me, must fill the Jag and MG at some point in the next few weeks. It's useful having a 145 litre (2,400 km in the Skoda) petrol reserve in the garage (even if syphoning is less than pleasurable) in case of emergency.

I believe Lidl will be selling siphon kits on special in the coming weeks.

 

[catsmate]

I haven't seen anything in the stuff about fuel shortages which says what the likely impact is on supplies of the fuel I (and a million other people who aren't on the gas main) need to heat my home. I have enough LPG in my tank to last until January, so if the supply is disrupted I'll be running out during the coldest time of the year.

Production won't be a huge problem; distribution will be.