2020 Democratic Candidates Tracker - Part II

[TragicMonkey]

Ok, civil war then. Go.

One half of the Hyperbole Twins checked in. Fire up the Light Rail Signal so we can get the other one!

 

[carlitos]

Good God, why?! Biden's much less like Sanders than Warren is! What is wrong with people?!

Tall white man?

 

[carlitos]

I've been reading about the Lincoln-Douglas debates. Douglas tried to appeal to the center, and he did win the Senate seat. Lincoln was the idealist who didn't concede as much to the opposition (although he did concede some things) and he lost the Senate seat...but won the presidency on the strength of those debates. From his perspective it was worth it. Douglas ran for the presidency himself and got one state and part of New Jersey. And historians pretty much agree that a Douglas presidency still would have resulted in the Civil War anyway. The middle ground was inherently untenable, occupying it was no key to success.

Beto O’Rourke was probably reading about those debates too. He lost a Senate campaign but ran really well and attracted a national audience. Too bad he’s not tall like Lincoln and has to stand on tables when he speaks.

 

[Brainster]

Beto O’Rourke was probably reading about those debates too. He lost a Senate campaign but ran really well and attracted a national audience. Too bad he’s not tall like Lincoln and has to stand on tables when he speaks.

There is nothing quite so dead as last year's fad.

 

[kellyb]

There are many on The Right who are un-enthusiastic about Trump, and may be inclined to vote against him (or not vote for the POTUS at all) if the candidate we run does not trigger the knee-jerk "OMG SOCIALISTS!!!!" as readily as some of our more left leaning options.

In order to win, it is likely that we will need a candidate who will do well amongst the (small) number of Independents- while not stirring the lukewarm to cold Right leaning voters into action.

Independents used to be "centrists", but generally aren't any more.

https://www.people-press.org/2019/03/14/political-independents-who-they-are-what-they-think/

Someone like Sanders will have as good of a shot at getting "independents" as Biden.
See: https://www.politico.com/blogs/poli...s-favorbiden-and-bernie-to-beat-trump-1470650

“Our polling shows 38 percent of independents and 9 percent of Republicans say they would vote for Biden over Trump, respectively. Bernie Sanders receives the same level of support among independents but less Republican support at 6 percent,

A Generic Centrist democrat is also unlikely to inspire a high degree of voter turnout for the democratic party, too. Getting an "Obama 2008" level of turnout will be key to a 2020 victory.

 

[angrysoba]

Yep. You're either 100% completely "Causiest of the cause" on your side or your some wishy-washy both sides are equal middle of the roader. Yep.

I want Trump stopped more then I care about the Democrat Party's ego. Crucify me.

Good. Sounds like you would vote Sanders if he got the nomination, then.

And I don’t see the rust belt shying away from Sanders as much as you see it happening. I think Medicare for all and higher wages would be attractive policies that Hillary Goldman-Sachs Clinton wasn’t offering.

 

[Distracted1]

Independents used to be "centrists", but generally aren't any more.

https://www.people-press.org/2019/03/14/political-independents-who-they-are-what-they-think/

Someone like Sanders will have as good of a shot at getting "independents" as Biden.
See: https://www.politico.com/blogs/poli...s-favorbiden-and-bernie-to-beat-trump-1470650



A Generic Centrist democrat is also unlikely to inspire a high degree of voter turnout for the democratic party, too. Getting an "Obama 2008" level of turnout will be key to a 2020 victory.

True, Sanders may have a larger draw among Independents. That would be ,IMO ,more than negated by the motivation he would give to the "OMG SOCIALISM!!!!" crowd.

Biden, OTOH, may draw fewer Independents, yet the small difference there would be more than offset when compared to the number of Republican-leaning voters who would be happy to not vote for Trump if the Democratic candidate is slightly acceptable.

As to the "inspiration" of Liberals. There is no candidate that can inspire us as much as Trump already has.

 

[Venom]

Yep. You're either 100% completely "Causiest of the cause" on your side or your some wishy-washy both sides are equal middle of the roader. Yep.

I want Trump stopped more then I care about the Democrat Party's ego. Crucify me.

Democratic Party.

And it's not the party who is doing purity tests. They are pretty content with a left but not too left candidate.

 

[Distracted1]

Good. Sounds like you would vote Sanders if he got the nomination, then.

And I don’t see the rust belt shying away from Sanders as much as you see it happening. I think Medicare for all and higher wages would be attractive policies that Hillary Goldman-Sachs Clinton wasn’t offering.

The rust belt voters are too practical (or cynical) to expect Sanders' promises to ever reach fruition.
They will turn out for nice, boring, Uncle Joe. And hope things improve just a little.

 

[Beelzebuddy]

Good God, why?! Biden's much less like Sanders than Warren is! What is wrong with people?!

I've been asking that question for a while now. Here is my best guess: he's an old white guy. He's the safe candidate. It's not that anyone actually wants him for being an old white guy, they just don't trust everyone else not to want an old white guy.

Look at any discussion about his electability. No one ever says Biden is their personal favorite pick. It's always somebody else who won't bother to vote if they can't vote for him.

Good. Sounds like you would vote Sanders if he got the nomination, then.

I'd like to think the majority of America is in a "The Democrat 2020" position by now. Voting blue no matter who.

 

[Venom]

I suspect Obama picked Biden as his VP to quell the unease of white middle America.

That's pretty much all Biden's got going for him right now. He's milking his name recognition, name dropping Obama every other ad or public appearance.

 

[FenerFan]

It depends on your definitions of "North America" and "native". There are monkey populations living in the wilds of South Carolina right now, several generations having been born there. And if you consider the North American continent to begin at the Isthmus of Panama then there are lots of native monkeys. Central America is a region, not a separate continent in itself.

There are wild macaques living in Florida, too. They have been there for decades. And since it's Florida, many of them carry a strain of herpes that is very dangerous for humans.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Wrong. The person making the claim can back it up. I’m not searching to substantiate someone else’s claim.

Blah blah blah.... Good for you.

Then lead by example. You’ve claimed two things I haven’t done.

Like claiming I was backing Travis' claims?

 

[kellyb]

As to the "inspiration" of Liberals. There is no candidate that can inspire us as much as Trump already has.

I'm not convinced merely being "not Trump" is going to work a lot better in 2020 than it did in 2016.

We probably need more to get back to 2008 turnout levels.

 

[kellyb]

The rust belt voters are too practical (or cynical) to expect Sanders' promises to ever reach fruition.
They will turn out for nice, boring, Uncle Joe. And hope things improve just a little.

Warren and Sanders are doing better in Wisconsin and Iowa than Biden is.

Elizabeth Warren (29%), Bernie Sanders (24%), and Joe Biden (20%) lead the Democratic primary in Wisconsin

Elizabeth Warren (28%), Bernie Sanders (17%), and Joe Biden (17%) have the highest levels of support among likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa.

Warren leads among all caucus-goers except 18-34 year-olds. Sanders leads this group with a 14-point lead with 35%.

Warren leads among both female and male caucus-goers in Iowa with 31% and 22%, respectively.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

There is an undeniable difference: Clinton had been demonized for decades, in a way that no other candidate has experienced. There was/is a hatred for her that is semi-unique.

Which is a caution to Democrats in this primary, we have to include demonize-ability when voting in the primary. I'm not saying every candidate doesn't have these problems, so one must also consider how astute they are at countering propaganda.

Biden as a long history of gaffes, bad votes, and creepy hair kissing that can easily be demonized. I don't believe the "Obama-Biden administration did this and that" is a winning strategy. It reeks of "Senator, you are no Obama."

Sanders and Warren are not only going to be attacked as 'too radical', as 'socialists', and as 'communists', they are also going to be trashed with the end to private health insurance platform. I get it it's the right thing to do, but if they can't sell it without saying private insurance has to go, they are dangerously close to the precipice of losing to Trump propaganda.

IMO: if they don't change, we need someone else. There's still time.

 

[kellyb]

Sanders and Warren are not only going to be attacked as 'too radical', as 'socialists', and as 'communists', they are also going to be trashed with the end to private health insurance platform. I get it it's the right thing to do, but if they can't sell it without saying private insurance has to go, they are dangerously close to the precipice of losing to Trump propaganda.

I deeply suspect Warren will release one of her famous plans on healthcare, elucidating the role private health care would play under M4A. It's only "banned" when it's covering a "duplicate" service, according to the bill Sanders wrote and she co-sponsored.

So, she could emphasize that "lots" of people in the UK and Australia have private insurance, and use it for things like "fast-track access" to things like knee and hip replacements (which would not necessarily be a duplication of coverage in the US.)

 

[angrysoba]

Blah blah blah.... Good for you.


Like claiming I was backing Travis' claims?

Are you still going on about this? I am happy to accept your posting was completely pointless, and not a backing of his claim (which I never said you were doing).

 

[Brainster]

Which is a caution to Democrats in this primary, we have to include demonize-ability when voting in the primary. I'm not saying every candidate doesn't have these problems, so one must also consider how astute they are at countering propaganda.

Biden as a long history of gaffes, bad votes, and creepy hair kissing that can easily be demonized. I don't believe the "Obama-Biden administration did this and that" is a winning strategy. It reeks of "Senator, you are no Obama."

Sanders and Warren are not only going to be attacked as 'too radical', as 'socialists', and as 'communists', they are also going to be trashed with the end to private health insurance platform. I get it it's the right thing to do, but if they can't sell it without saying private insurance has to go, they are dangerously close to the precipice of losing to Trump propaganda.

IMO: if they don't change, we need someone else. There's still time.

Tom Styron could still catch fire, or Harris could gain back the black vote, right? Maybe old horseface John Kerry could ride in to the rescue?

 

[Aridas]

Biden's kind of likeable but... why does he have so much support?

Perhaps because after the past three years, a known, establishment figure has certain appeal. And because of Obama's popularity. But mainly because he's perceived to have the best chance of winning.

His support comes from the perception (with some evidence) that he is the most likely Democrat to unseat Trump.
That's pretty much it.
I have to admit, that is a strong motivator for me. There are other Democratic candidates I would prefer to be President, but more important is the candidates ability to actually become President- as that factor renders all others moot.

In this field and this far out, though, it's well worth remembering that name recognition is fairly certainly still the most major factor in play. Coming in second is likely perceptions of electability, both of which are distinctly affected by the media.