Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

[Planigale]

No, I do not believe smuggling does not happen, but once the UK gets it's 'great trade deal' from the US the incentive will increase significantly. To prevent that significant border checks are needed.

The other countries with a land border with the EU either do these checks in their (airports), like the scandinavians and the swiss or there are guarded border checks, like with the eastern/southern borders.

And as has been mentioned before, even with a backstop the UK could always take the same no-deal step they are taking now.

You are advocating the same having your cake and eating it too that the brexit camp keeps using. Either keep up with the standards that indeed you have no control over (like norway) and have an open border while a further deal is negotiated, or no deal and a closed border in which case the UK can import whatever non-regulated crap the US and China want to dump.

It's not the EU's fault that the mythical 'easy deal, we hold all the cards' failed to materialize and that a significant part of the UK still believes britannia rules the waves, rather than being the junior partner in this deal.

So your perception is that the UK will be full of cheap goods that the citizens of the EU are desperate to get their hands on, but EU rules won't let them. The people of Cork are gagging for chlorinated chicken, and that the pure white butter you get in the US rather than that horrible yellow stuff that Anchor markets is what the citizens of Dublin clammer for?

Why should smuggling be more of an issue into Ireland than it is now? Presumably the EU don't really care if Jameson's and Camembert are smuggled in to NI?


The Vatican is not in the EU but there are no restrictions between it and the EU. monaco is no in the EU and there are no borders restrictions between it and the EU.

Much of the argument seems to be this is not the way it is done this is not the norm. These are excuses not to do something. If you want something to happen you innovate you don't accept this is the way it was done in the past so this is the way it has to be done in the future.

 

[Samson]

Steel is a strategic industry.
If it goes bust what happens when we want to build another carrier and foreign governments won't let their industries sell us steel to build it?

A bit like food security, but the farmers say that will be a goner too.

 

[Delphic Oracle]

So your perception is that the UK will be full of cheap goods that the citizens of the EU are desperate to get their hands on, but EU rules won't let them. The people of Cork are gagging for chlorinated chicken, and that the pure white butter you get in the US rather than that horrible yellow stuff that Anchor markets is what the citizens of Dublin clammer for?

Why should smuggling be more of an issue into Ireland than it is now? Presumably the EU don't really care if Jameson's and Camembert are smuggled in to NI?


The Vatican is not in the EU but there are no restrictions between it and the EU. monaco is no in the EU and there are no borders restrictions between it and the EU.

Much of the argument seems to be this is not the way it is done this is not the norm. These are excuses not to do something. If you want something to happen you innovate you don't accept this is the way it was done in the past so this is the way it has to be done in the future.

Those micro-states have agreed to membership in various instruments of the EU system or agreed to be administered as part of another state. Should the UK join the appropriate organizations in similar fashion, they could also operate that way.

 

[The Don]

What Trump said? Not sure I'll take economic advice from your mentor.

The concept of nationally strategic industries isn't a uniquely Trumpian one, it's a well-established, especially when it comes to national defence.

Whether steel in the UK should be one of them is a different matter.

 

[The Don]

Why should smuggling be more of an issue into Ireland than it is now? Presumably the EU don't really care if Jameson's and Camembert are smuggled in to NI?

Because there is conformity on tariffs and standards, there is less incentive to smuggle goods between the nations in the EU. Note however that when there is an incentive to do so, for example cigarettes and other tobacco products where UK taxes are substantially higher than some other EU countries, then smuggling already happens on an industrial scale.

If there are 40% import tariffs on certain foodstuffs in the EU (or UK if we're operating on WTO terms) then there's a clear financial incentive to smuggle from UK to Ireland and vice versa.

If the UK conforms to US food regulations in the future then the EU will be very concerned about substandard (but cheap due to heavy US subsidies) food being smuggled across the border and entering the EU food chain.

 

[Information Analyst]

And most UK planes that fly to Africa, Asia, Australasia, the Middle East and the Far East pass through EU airspace.

Probably a lot more than EU flights to the Americas.

Glad to see that the point I was making wasn't as obscure as Ceptimus's response suggests...

 

[Information Analyst]

What Trump said? Not sure I'll take economic advice from your mentor.

Trump is hardly the originator of the idea. In fact, the principle goes back to Admiral Collingwood and his pocketful of acorns.

 

[Lukraak_Sisser]

So your perception is that the UK will be full of cheap goods that the citizens of the EU are desperate to get their hands on, but EU rules won't let them. The people of Cork are gagging for chlorinated chicken, and that the pure white butter you get in the US rather than that horrible yellow stuff that Anchor markets is what the citizens of Dublin clammer for?

Why should smuggling be more of an issue into Ireland than it is now? Presumably the EU don't really care if Jameson's and Camembert are smuggled in to NI?


The Vatican is not in the EU but there are no restrictions between it and the EU. monaco is no in the EU and there are no borders restrictions between it and the EU.

Much of the argument seems to be this is not the way it is done this is not the norm. These are excuses not to do something. If you want something to happen you innovate you don't accept this is the way it was done in the past so this is the way it has to be done in the future.

US foodstuffs are made using methods the EU does not condone, but which does make bulk products significantly cheaper.
Once the UK drops its inspections it can import those things (destroying their own farmers in the progress, but hey at least they're free from the EU).

If there is no controlled border in NI why would large food companies NOT buy the cheaper stuff and transport it to the EU for larger profits?

If that weren't a danger, the controls and checks would not exist.

 

[Information Analyst]

The people of Cork are gagging for chlorinated chicken, and that the pure white butter you get in the US rather than that horrible yellow stuff that Anchor markets is what the citizens of Dublin clammer for?

I would have thought the Irish in general would favour neither in preference to Kerrygold.

 

[Andy_Ross]

What Trump said? Not sure I'll take economic advice from your mentor.

What does Trump have to do with it?

 

[Planigale]

What does Trump have to do with it?

Raising tariffs to protect US industry is a faily central element of Trumpian economic policy.

 

[Degeneve]

monaco is no in the EU and there are no borders restrictions between it and the EU.

Because there is a customs union between Monaco and France. As a consequence all French (and therefore EU) customs and VAT rules apply in Monaco. Therefore imported goods from third countries into Monaca is just the same as importing them into France. See among other Article 7 of EU directive 2006/112/EC on VAT: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-con...02006L0112-20190116&qid=1566030206010&from=FR

 

[Planigale]

US foodstuffs are made using methods the EU does not condone, but which does make bulk products significantly cheaper.
Once the UK drops its inspections it can import those things (destroying their own farmers in the progress, but hey at least they're free from the EU).

If there is no controlled border in NI why would large food companies NOT buy the cheaper stuff and transport it to the EU for larger profits?
If that weren't a danger, the controls and checks would not exist.

Presumably selling in the EU and importing into the Eu would be illegal and they would be subject to legal action civil and perhaps criminal penalties. Occasionally large scale companies do break the law as happened over using non-medical grade silicone for breast implants. In general this sort of smuggling is on a small scale going to individuals or small privately owned businesses whoo aren't subject to oversight and audit in the way that bigger businesses are.

 

[Darat]

Presumably selling in the EU and importing into the Eu would be illegal and they would be subject to legal action civil and perhaps criminal penalties. Occasionally large scale companies do break the law as happened over using non-medical grade silicone for breast implants. In general this sort of smuggling is on a small scale going to individuals or small privately owned businesses whoo aren't subject to oversight and audit in the way that bigger businesses are.

Horse meat in Spaghetti Bolognese....

 

[catsmate]

Why should we pay the EU to let us fly our own planes?

Oh good grief, the ignorance, it burns...

 

[Nessie]

If the UK government and EU starts to argue over who can fly a plane over each other's territory, then we are in a relationship that is very troubled.

At the moment I trust both sides to not to fall out to that extent, but unless we can get back to negotiating and there are signs of an agreed deal, I do wonder.

 

[Nessie]

In August 1969, 50 years ago, British troops were deployed to Northern Ireland. I would recommend this documentary about The Troubles;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0007pb4

It is very relevant to now. I will be there next week, visiting a relative who has just been told he is being made redundant due to work drying up over Brexit uncertainty.

There is still stalemate in Stormont and there is a genuine concern those who have worked to compromise and keep the Good Friday Agreement are being driven apart by outside interventions.

The last time that happened, the UK decided to send in the troops...

 

[Andy_Ross]

Raising tariffs to protect US industry is a faily central element of Trumpian economic policy.

It's standard across the world. Some industry is of strategic importance. I would say steel making is one of the basic industries the UK needs.

 

[Garrison]

It's standard across the world. Some industry is of strategic importance. I would say steel making is one of the basic industries the UK needs.

Save your breath it became pretty obvious that once he invoked Trump Planigale was just trolling.

 

[Lothian]

If the UK government and EU starts to argue over who can fly a plane over each other's territory, then we are in a relationship that is very troubled.

At the moment I trust both sides to not to fall out to that extent, but unless we can get back to negotiating and there are signs of an agreed deal, I do wonder.

Sorry, a short holiday prevented me coming back sooner. I brought up the flight point not to say that we wouldn't be able to use EU airspace I am sure we will rather all these systems that we will remain part of have a cost to run and we will need to pay our share. Therefore it is it not safe to assume that we will save all the money we currently contribute.