Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

[The Don]

This doesn't seem to get brought up much, but as far as I can see the US will not be ratifying trade deals with anyone until the president , and the majority of the house and senate are from the same party. It doesn't look too likely that this will happen in the 2020 election, so 2023 would be the next possibility.

I suppose that it depends on the nature of the proposed trade deal. If the trade deal enjoys bipartisan support then there's no reason to presume that it wouldn't be passed.

For example a UK/US trade deal which is in the US' favour but where there is no threat to the GFA from the Brexit process would likely sail through.

 

[Lukraak_Sisser]

Also, just how beneficial would a free trade deal really be to the UK?

It's industry is, afaik, mainly service related and at least agriculture will lose its EU subsidies, while the money freed by leaving the EU has been promised to various other things several times over.

Wouldn't that just make the UK a dumping ground for the heavily subsidized US agriculture and industry?

 

[Guybrush Threepwood]

I suppose that it depends on the nature of the proposed trade deal. If the trade deal enjoys bipartisan support then there's no reason to presume that it wouldn't be passed.

For example a UK/US trade deal which is in the US' favour but where there is no threat to the GFA from the Brexit process would likely sail through.

I don't think so, there is nothing particularly wrong with NAFTA2.0, but it's going nowhere. Any deal Trump agrees the Democrats will block, and if Trump loses in 2020 then vice versa for whatever the Dem president agrees.

 

[Francesca R]

It's also been pointed out that the UK has announced its going to impose zero tariffs on most products, so there's little incentive for agreements- according to the radio this morning, Canada has doesn't wantbto roll over the EU agreement as it would get everything it wants from WTO trade with the UK.

I've studied the argument often made by freetraders that abolishing all import taxes regardless of what trading counterpart nations do is a pretty good idea. I can't find any significant flaw with it, and it would be almost certainly the best "no deal brexit" approach.

Have not seen that this is the plan though . Is it?

 

[The Don]

Also, just how beneficial would a free trade deal really be to the UK?

It's industry is, afaik, mainly service related and at least agriculture will lose its EU subsidies, while the money freed by leaving the EU has been promised to various other things several times over.

Wouldn't that just make the UK a dumping ground for the heavily subsidized US agriculture and industry?

It is highly likely that the terms of a US/UK trade agreement would be weighted heavily in favour of the US. Even if there are no tariffs, there are non-tariff barriers which could be made to work in the US' favour.

Examples include the UK having to adopt US standards so that all US goods can be exported (chlorinated chicken and so on), and the UK having no quota for US exports but the US imposing very small quotas for UK goods.

In a negotiation between equal partners, the UK would insist that the US didn't subsidise (or that there were tariffs to compensate), but this won't be that kind of negotiation IMO.

 

[Guybrush Threepwood]

I've studied the argument often made by freetraders that abolishing all import taxes regardless of what trading counterpart nations do is a pretty good idea. I can't find any significant flaw with it, and it would be almost certainly the best "no deal brexit" approach.

Have not seen that this is the plan though . Is it?

Does the 'lack of significant flaws' include the political upheaval caused by a massive reshaping and re-organisation of the UK economy, or would this not happen?
I'm looking for information, not trying to catch you out. I can see that in terms of increased economic activity in the UK it would be beneficial, but politically it seems very dangerous to me, however I are an engineer and not an economist or politician.

 

[Francesca R]

I rather think there is upheaval and massive reshaping and reorganisation in store with crash out brexit anyway. Probably anyone's guess whether the kerfuffle is increased by setting all tariffs at zero instead of something else.

This (no deal) would anyway be an untested economic sudden-impact experiment (a crash test). Seems to me it is the surest case to lessen trade barriers in any way possible even one sided.

 

[Guybrush Threepwood]

I rather think there is upheaval and massive reshaping and reorganisation in store with crash out brexit anyway. Probably anyone's guess whether the kerfuffle is increased by setting all tariffs at zero instead of something else.

This (no deal) would anyway be an untested economic sudden-impact experiment (a crash test). Seems to me it is the surest case to lessen trade barriers in any way possible even one sided.

OK, I may have misinterpreted your post. I read it as you thinking that there was no significant flaw in a country setting all import tariffs to zero in any circumstances.

 

[Dave Rogers]

This (no deal) would anyway be an untested economic sudden-impact experiment (a crash test).

Unlike a normal crash test, though, the dummies are in charge of the testing.

Dave

 

[Francesca R]

OK, I may have misinterpreted your post. I read it as you thinking that there was no significant flaw in a country setting all import tariffs to zero in any circumstances.

I do pretty much support unilateral tariff abolition yes.

 

[Guybrush Threepwood]

I do pretty much support unilateral tariff abolition yes.

And the political/social impact from the upheaval (If you don't have a ready-made upheaval) isn't a flaw? Or is there no impact?

 

[Francesca R]

Could call it a cost in a set of transactions with an overall benefit. "Kaldor/Hicks" rather than "pareto" improvement.

 

[Andy_Ross]

So it would seem. The national average for RNs in the US is around $73,000, which seems to be the equivalent of about £65,000. The average in large urban areas is significantly higher which reflects the higher CoL.

And they're worth every penny of it.

We don't value medical staff, doctors or nurses in the UK.

 

[lomiller]

What does it mean, "to be put under administration"? Government taking control of a firm on a temporary basis?

McHrozni

It’s essentially the same thing as receivership in in US bankruptcy proceedings.

 

[lomiller]

Also, just how beneficial would a free trade deal really be to the UK?

When the Trump administration talks trade he usually means “give our industries access to your markets, but we will continue to impose tariffs and subsidies to prop up business that get hurt by the additional competition. Provided they make campaign contributions”

It's industry is, afaik, mainly service related and at least agriculture will lose its EU subsidies, while the money freed by leaving the EU has been promised to various other things several times over.

Wouldn't that just make the UK a dumping ground for the heavily subsidized US agriculture and industry?

Very likely. I mentioned it myself a few pages back.

 

[lomiller]

I've studied the argument often made by freetraders that abolishing all import taxes regardless of what trading counterpart nations do is a pretty good idea. I can't find any significant flaw with it, and it would be almost certainly the best "no deal brexit" approach.

I think the arguments work for why a “bad trade deal” may not be a real problem. The issues I see are are more related to constancy and predictability, and their role in the willingness of business to make long term investments.

I rather think there is upheaval and massive reshaping and reorganisation in store with crash out brexit anyway. Probably anyone's guess whether the kerfuffle is increased by setting all tariffs at zero instead of something else.

The issue with lowering tariffs to zero unilaterally regardless of what counterparties do is that upheaval and uncertainty become continuous because counterparties can change their rules to target different business and/or sectors at any time.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Looks like the US think they can steal a chunk of the EU exports to the UK but not sure what the UK stands to gain.

 

[The Don]

Looks like the US think they can steal a chunk of the EU exports to the UK but not sure what the UK stands to gain.

Yummy chlorinated chicken ?

Items with imperial sizing ?

Overpriced and/or under-regulated medication ?

The list is an extensive one

 

[Lothian]

Looks like the US think they can steal a chunk of the EU exports to the UK but not sure what the UK stands to gain.

We get to buy lots of American goods helping America get great again. If America thinks we are not buying enough we will get hit by trade tariffs on our goods to America. See the current US/China deal to see how Trump's US does business.

 

[Mojo]

Looks like the US think they can steal a chunk of the EU exports to the UK but not sure what the UK stands to gain.

Blue passports.