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Cont: Brexit: Now What? 7th heaven...

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ceptimus said:
The so-called 'backstop' had no exit mechanism unless the EU agreed
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Not entirely true. The UK could leave the arrangement on exactly the same terms as a no-deal Brexit. Under no circumstances was the EU ever going to agree to something that could violate the integrity of it’s borders, and there is no reason why it should.

ceptimus said:
So just as bad as remaining full members of the EU, but without even any say in the running of the EU.
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Post Brexit the UK needs to function as if it were in EU borders and have EU internal rules apply or outside EU borders and have EU rules for non-EU nations apply.

Non-EU nations that want access to the EU market need to negotiate trade deals. The UK doesn’t have such a deal and was never going to get one that didn’t allow the EU to control it’s borders and enforce it’s standards on imported products.

ceptimus said:
On top of that we had to pay them €39 billion for the privilege of entering into such control.
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You expect that maintaining and enforcing these standards is free? It the UK was going to be functionally part of the EU it was always going to be required to pay it's fair share of the associated costs.
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
There won't be a motion of no confidence and if there was BJ would win it. BJ would also win a GE anyway.

The idea that BJ is a liability for the Tories is a nonsense. He's the most popular and well known politician in the UK. He might be incompetent but when did that ever matter?
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No he wouldn't as the leave vote is split between the Brexit Party and the Conservative.
 
The Don said:
Remoaner ministers are resigning in protest at a likely Boris win in Prime Ministerial race (or maybe quitting before they can be fired ?). They say that they don't want a no-deal Brexit which will they say will be very damaging.

So far it's Phil Hammond, David Gauke and Alan Duncan, but the rumour is that there are others are considering their positions.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49069880
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In the meantime, look who's popped up: Pritti Patel going all out to get on the cabinet.

It's going to be a nightmare with her and the dreadful Liz Truss propping Boris up.
 
ceptimus said:
Shows what a total liar Theresa May was - she said, over and over again, that, "No deal is better than a bad deal", knowing that she'd chosen her cabinet and ministers stuffed full of remainers sensible ministers who were not prepared to countenance 'no deal' under any circumstances.

Anyway, good riddance to the lot of them, let's hope they lose the Tory whip before the next election, and are therefore deselected and lose their jobs.
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FIFY
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
In fairness, she would have had to find a cabinet of Brexiteers capable of forming complete sentences without including too many racial epithets or obviously bigoted things. I'm not sure there are enough to fill the cabinet.
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Can you just picture it, Mark Francois and the doddering Bill thingymebob.

And with arse crawler Sajid sycophanting all over the place.
 
ceptimus said:
The EU negotiated trade deals with Canada, and other countries, without requiring them to join the EU customs union.
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Canada and those other countries do not have the rather unique situation that the isle of Eire and the Good Friday Agreement bring into the mix.

Sent from my SM-M305F using Tapatalk
 
Nessie said:
The UK and Eire have separate arrangements regarding control of the Irish border and migration between the two countries that is independent of the EU, primarily the CTA. The EU has hardly any say as the UK and Eire have traditionally had an open border in terms of migration. It only became a controlled border when the Troubles were on the go.

The people did not know that and voted to take control of something we already had control over. :covereyes
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So as long as the UK stays in the customs union with the Eu they can have the open border. Otherwise it has to close and that is exactly what those people voted for.

I mean I guess the Republic of Ireland could also leave the EU to keep the open border with the UK but really it isn't that complicated. You either have free trade with the EU or a closed border with Ireland. You simply can't declare you will have both and expect it to work better than simply declaring you can have your cake still after you eat it. I know the law says that even if you eat it you must still have it, but here is the thing, reality kind of gets in the way.

The Irish border and the EU border are simply not two separate issues. That was the whole point of the Backstop keeping Norther Ireland in the customs union so there wouldn't be a hard border. But that isn't acceptable so clearly a hard border is what the people want.
 
ceptimus said:
The so-called 'backstop' had no exit mechanism unless the EU agreed - and prevented us from negotiating independent trade deals. So just as bad as remaining full members of the EU, but without even any say in the running of the EU. On top of that we had to pay them €39 billion for the privilege of entering into such control.
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Exactly an Englishman never pays his debts!
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
The backstop was there because there was no solution to the border issue. The leavers kept saying they had one but refused to tell anyone what it was.
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It is simple and easy, it is what the people voted for, taking back control of the border and hence having a hard border. You just get people pretending that when they talk about taking back control of borders it doesn't apply to land borders for some reason.
 
Norman Alexander said:
That's why I added the qualification about Labour. If they were even half-way sensible and likeable, they would romp in a GE over the fat mop-head.

Well, Hitler was the most well-known German in the UK at one point. Didn't make him liked or even popular.

That is to say, my question was about what happens after BJ goes into Number 10. Of course he's incompetent. And Brexit is a great big urgent Gordian knot that doesn't even understand. So surely there will come a time in the very near future that it will be obvious that BJ would be more use as a doorstop at the back of the house, and someone vaguely intelligent should be at the wheel instead.
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I couldn't get past the vision of the ghost of Godwin being conjured up.
 
The Don said:
Boris is now Prime Minister :(

So I guess he will attempt to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement and will fail (unless he tries to present the same deal a a wonderful new deal) and the UK will crash out with no deal.

At this critical point, we will have a Prime Minister who is not only incompetent but who has a long history of a failure to master detail and a reputation for flying into a rage at the smallest thing. I really dread the stitch-up UK/US trade deal we will end up with. :(
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I predict that after Boris being seen to frequent the offices of various EU leaders (as did Theresa before him) the outcome will be:

  • a withdrawal agreement identical to May's, with one or two dots added to i's and bars across t's here and there, but essentially identical.
  • the same road block May came up against.
  • federalist von der Leyon will grant Boris a long extension as she needs the UK to be part of the United States of Germania.


So no change there, then.
 
ceptimus said:
I''ll give you one for a starter. Philip Hammond, the most important job in cabinet apart from the PM herself. She appointed him immediately she became PM. He's always been staunchly remain and obstructed no-deal preparations at every turn. Now that he can no longer force his will on government, he has petulantly resigned in the most grandstanding manner imaginable, and vowed to continue to obstruct the will of the people from the back benches - up to and including bringing down his own government.
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Rubbish, he backed her withdrawal deal, did he not?
 
Vixen said:
I predict that after Boris being seen to frequent the offices of various EU leaders (as did Theresa before him) the outcome will be:

  • a withdrawal agreement identical to May's, with one or two dots added to i's and bars across t's here and there, but essentially identical.
  • the same road block May came up against.
  • federalist von der Leyon will grant Boris a long extension as she needs the UK to be part of the United States of Germania.


So no change there, then.
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Naa, Boris is smart enough to know that no deal is possible so he will just let the UK crash out. ANd why would the EU grant an extension without some kind of change to the political situation in the UK? I don't buy an extension with out something to get the UK to make up its mind.
 
Captain_Swoop said:
What is your evidence for this claim?
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I don't think it's a claim so much as it as a paranoid delusion shared by many brexiteers, the EU is an evil empire out to destroy Britain and if only we can escape we will reclaim our rightful place as a world power.
 
ceptimus said:
Because that would be absolutely useless. All the disadvantages of remaining without any benefit. Better to remain completely than do that.
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Except for the economic and social cost, the ninety billion in lost economic growth, the half-million jobs at cetera.
:rolleyes:
 
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