2020 Democratic Candidates Tracker - Part II

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Skeptic Ginger

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Skeptic Ginger
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Brainster said:
Because that's been such a rousing success?

I can't imagine anybody other than Tom Steyer thinking that this is a good idea. As I pointed out earlier, the candidate this most hurts is Warren who seems to be gaining momentum, and it probably helps Joe Biden by further fracturing the progressive vote.
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Does it worry you he's thrown his hat in? Are you trying to influence me to lose respect for him? It's a given he won't be your candidate.

Thread is a continuation from here.
You may quote or reply to any of the posts from that part here.
Posted By: zooterkin
 
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Skeptic Ginger said:
Does it worry you he's thrown his hat in? Are you trying to influence me to lose respect for him? It's a given he won't be your candidate.
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I'm not going to play the game of trying to influence you one way or the other. For one thing, we just saw in 2016 that the candidate some may feel is the weakest on the other side could have surprising strength. Probably my preferred Democrat is Joe Biden; he seems to have the least downside risk to me. The negative (from my standpoint) is that he seems more likely to get elected than (say) Warren or Sanders; the positive (again from my standpoint) is that he's less likely to screw things up big time.

I'm not particularly worried about Steyer. I could be wrong there; I was certainly wrong about Trump in 2015 and 2016, whom I similarly dismissed. But looking at it strictly from the horse race side, it does seem like his entry is a shot directly across Warren's bow (to mix a few metaphors), and again, strictly from the horse race side the timing seems a big odd.
 
Bit of personal bickering dumped to AAH, let’s try to keep the bickering to the nominal topic thanks.
Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: Darat
 
Nate Silver puts the candidates into tiers (and sub-tiers).

Basically he has Biden and Harris in the top tier, followed closely by Warren. The next tier is Bernie over Mayor Pete. The list goes deeper but the way things are shaking out, the others seem to be stillborn. Note this:

One of the lesser-noticed aspects of polling after the first debates is how several candidates who were deemed to have performed well in the debates by voters didn’t really see their topline numbers improve. That especially holds for Booker and Julian Castro. Both got high marks for their debate performances, and both saw their favorability ratings improve, but they’re still polling at just 1 or 2 percent in the toplines. That ought to read as a bearish signal for Booker, Castro and other candidates in this tier. They can have a good night, and it still isn’t necessarily enough to move the vote choice needle for them.
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I found this observation pretty interesting:

Also, it’s worth noting that whichever candidate wins the plurality of black voters usually wins the Democratic nomination — something that Biden and Harris probably have a better chance of doing than Warren does.
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Assuming no major political shakeups, it's gonna wind up being a Biden/Harris Primary. The question as to how long the other candidates will take to drop out is hard to answer from this vantage point.
 
Belz... said:
If Sanders isn't going to be close to the top, I hope he drops out faster than last time.
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I fear Sanders, who I don't like outright hate or anything, has started to believe his own "Secret Frontrunner that the man is keeping down" mythology a bit too much.

I hope I'm wrong.
 
Brainster said:
I found this observation pretty interesting:

Also, it’s worth noting that whichever candidate wins the plurality of black voters usually wins the Democratic nomination — something that Biden and Harris probably have a better chance of doing than Warren does.
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Biden clearly carrying black sentiment because he was Obama's VP, because on policy, they should be supporting Warren over Biden by a very long way.
 
JoeMorgue said:
Assuming no major political shakeups, it's gonna wind up being a Biden/Harris Primary. The question as to how long the other candidates will take to drop out is hard to answer from this vantage point.
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I don't think you can count Warren out yet. She still has a lane to run in (and it will be a pretty big lane if Sanders drops out early). Iowa and New Hampshire should be fertile ground for her brand of populism (South Carolina less so).
 
Belz... said:
Isn't it obvious from the last time? Once it's obvious that someone else will win, sticking around and continuing to campaign is just going to hurt the other person in the general.
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When it's a small field to begin with, I'd agree.

When it's a clown car, you actually want to sit on the edges early. Everyone gets their push, and then they get their intense media scrutiny and flame out when a skeleton falls out of the closet. Somewhere near the end, with a pile of 2nd and 3rd place delegate allocations, you start the backroom negotiations.

Even if it doesn't get you the nomination, you get to hand them a list of 3 cabinet positions you'll accept in exchange for releasing your delegates.

(Not endorsing any of this, but this is how crass careerists see it)
 
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Delphic Oracle said:
You're trying to rationalize a variable with a constant.
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Well, "ORANGE MAN BAD" is a pretty constant refrain around here.

But it doesn't seem too much to ask, that in a thread about Democratic candidates, people find something more substantive to say about a Democratic candidate's platform. The way TGZ puts it, Warren doesn't have an immigration plan so much as she has yet another Two Minutes Hate.

Who knows? If Warren actually has a sensible immigration plan, she might be worth voting for. But TGZ's immediate spiral into senseless rage suggests she doesn't.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
Solid, obvious, practical plan to manage the issue of immigration.

Or in the words of the Trumpster: "OPEN BORDERS! WHITE GENOCIDE!"
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Why does she want to end private detention facilities? She says people shouldn't profit from cruelty. But if she changes how the facilities operate, doesn't that resolve profit from cruelty? Or is she saying her policies will include government ran cruelty?
 
theprestige said:
Well, "ORANGE MAN BAD" is a pretty constant refrain around here.
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Only because "Orange Man actually IS bad, objectively speaking."

theprestige said:
But it doesn't seem too much to ask, that in a thread about Democratic candidates, people find something more substantive to say about a Democratic candidate's platform. The way TGZ puts it, Warren doesn't have an immigration plan so much as she has yet another Two Minutes Hate.
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If that's your twisted takeaway from what he said, rather than dealing with it as it pretty obviously was, your opinion can be safely ignored on that topic.

theprestige said:
Who knows? If Warren actually has a sensible immigration plan, she might be worth voting for.
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Feel free to actually look at it!

theprestige said:
But TGZ's immediate spiral into senseless rage suggests she doesn't.
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Senseless rage? Poking at the President and the Republican Party's brazen, consistent, and constant lies about what Democrats actually say and do is senseless rage, now?
 
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