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2020 Democratic Candidates Tracker

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I think each presidential election, and each candidate, is unique, and they need to be taken on a case by case basis. I think it would be a mistake to look at the previous election and conclude, "that's how it is now". History marches on. The electorate goes through moods. What worked for one candidate one time probably won't work for a different candidate at a different time.

I can think Trump was right for 2016 but wrong for 2020. I can accept Trump's brand of demagoguery from him, perhaps, without being interested in seeing another candidate try the same trick. The zeitgeist is a moving target. 2020 won't be a do-over of 2016 for the Dems, where they try a different approach to winning on the same game board. 2020 will be a fresh game with a fresh board. The electorate will have moved forward, through four years of Trump, and four years of their own lives. Instead of thinking about replaying 2016 with a better candidate/message, the Dems (and the Republicans) should be thinking about where we are now, and what the electorate wants to happen next.

AOC's popularity(?) probably tells us something about what the Democratic party is interested in right now, but that only gets us to the primaries. The big question is, what will swing voters expect and want from the Democratic candidate in 2020? Something more like Trump? Something more like McCain? Something more like Ocasio-Cortez? A lot of the discussion seems to have a last-war/next-war problem.
 
Belz... said:
acbytesla said:
2016 isn't 2020. People won't take 2020 for granted. Apathy and overconfidence will not be a factor.
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You are adorable.
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Well, everyone has their favorite theory for the 2016 results, but 2020 definitely won't be a rerun of 2016, so theories about 2018 results might be more predictive. What's yours?
 
theprestige said:
I think each presidential election, and each candidate, is unique, and they need to be taken on a case by case basis. I think it would be a mistake to look at the previous election and conclude, "that's how it is now". History marches on. The electorate goes through moods. What worked for one candidate one time probably won't work for a different candidate at a different time.

I can think Trump was right for 2016 but wrong for 2020. I can accept Trump's brand of demagoguery from him, perhaps, without being interested in seeing another candidate try the same trick. The zeitgeist is a moving target. 2020 won't be a do-over of 2016 for the Dems, where they try a different approach to winning on the same game board. 2020 will be a fresh game with a fresh board. The electorate will have moved forward, through four years of Trump, and four years of their own lives. Instead of thinking about replaying 2016 with a better candidate/message, the Dems (and the Republicans) should be thinking about where we are now, and what the electorate wants to happen next.

AOC's popularity(?) probably tells us something about what the Democratic party is interested in right now, but that only gets us to the primaries. The big question is, what will swing voters expect and want from the Democratic candidate in 2020? Something more like Trump? Something more like McCain? Something more like Ocasio-Cortez? A lot of the discussion seems to have a last-war/next-war problem.
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I don't agree with you on many things Prestige, but I agree with you on this. It is a fallacy to point to history to predict the future.

That said, your analysis of AOC is also a fallacy and it's the one you allude to in the your first sentence. Pointing to AOC's election and arguing that it tells us anything about the Democratic Party as a whole is a composition fallacy.

Not just each Presidential election is unique but EVERY election is unique. What applies to AOC's district in NY may and probably does not correlate to the Texas 13th or the Missouri 1st.

One of things I believe I have learned from observing political races is that both the message and the messenger are important ingredients. And the degree to which either is more important is almost impossible to determine.
 
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Belz... said:
I don't have one, but I won't assume that voters won't be complacent. They usually are.
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I prefer to assume they won't be complacent, simply because it's considerably less depressing, but I do take comfort from the 2018 results.
 
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Belz... said:
I don't have one, but I won't assume that voters won't be complacent. They usually are.
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WilliamSeger said:
I prefer to assume they won't be complacent simply because it's considerably less depressing, but I do take comfort from the 2018 results.
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What he said.

I agree with you Belz that voters may "usually" be complacent. But I ask you Belz, is there anything usual about Trump?
 
Belz... said:
I'm just saying we're numbed by it. Outrage is slowly being replaced with shrugs.
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You mean inured by it. I think to a certain degree that is a coping mechanism. But given a choice, I think people will be anxious to return to something less bizarre.

One of the things I heard from people about Trump in 16 was that he would be different after he was in office. But if Trump is different, it's that he is far crazier and far more corrupt than we imagined he could be.

I seriously doubt that apathy and complacency will be an issue. But I've been wrong before.
 
acbytesla said:
You mean inured by it. I think to a certain degree that is a coping mechanism. But given a choice, I think people will be anxious to return to something less bizarre.
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Given the choice between two options, sure. Given the choice between those two and being lazy, I wouldn't make a bet.
 
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