Some Op-Eds that didn't age well:
I Believe Jussie Smollett. You Should, Too.
(Tre'vell Anderson,
Out magazine)
The Racist, Homophobic Attack on Jussie Smollett Is Far-Right America's Endgame
(Joshua Rivera, GQ)
I also looked to see if the people who penned these pieces had written any follow-ups. In the case of Rivera, not yet. Other than retweeting another person on Twitter, he seems to have gone fairly silent on this subject recently and has moved on to other topics.
Anderson on the other hand did write a subsequent Op-Ed, which seems to move the goalposts:
Op-Ed: The Vast Majority of Hate Crime Victims are Telling the Truth
He goes on to cite various crime victimization surveys and other data and comes to this:
The FBI estimate is, of course, an estimate. An educated guess. It could be wrong but let's posit that these are reasonable numbers. Still, the odds in the aggregate are only really important if you know little or nothing about the details of the case, or at least, what's being reported about it.
Once we have specific information about a case in question, those odds become much less important and the specific information about the case is the best information to look at to determine if it is true or not.