National Emergency

[WilliamSeger]

Ah... yeah. They absolutely did.

In what world is Trump shutting down the government for over a month a win for the Democrats?

More "Oh it showed how bad he is and that eroded his base in ways that are completely invisible?"

You're too cynical. In my world, when polls told Republican leaders that the shut-down ship was taking on water, they told the captain there was an override mutiny afoot to minimize damage to their own reelection prospects, and he caved. For that, even Ann Coulter is calling him an idiot, because that's how he looks now from whichever side you look -- if you look, that is, which his hardcore base studiously avoids.

But no sensible person should waste any more time pondering what it would take to erode Trump's base -- ain't gonna happen. But so what, when they are a 40% minority, neither shrinking nor growing? Trumpism must be defeated at the polls, and 2018 showed that it can be. All Trump can do is hope that Hillary runs again, and depending on what Mueller has on him, even that might not save his sorry ass.

 

[JoeMorgue]

I'll ease off it guys, okay?

 

[Segnosaur]

Some polling numbers out, and as expected, the majority of people are against the declaration of a National Emergency.

From: https://www.npr.org/2019/02/19/6957...of-trumps-declaration-of-a-national-emergency
More than 6-in-10 Americans disapprove of President Trump's decision to declare a national emergency so he can build barriers along the U.S border with Mexico, a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds.

The results do seem to be split along party lines, with most Republicans favoring the declaration, and most Democrats against it. More importantly though, a majority of independent voters are against the National Emergency declaration. So, while it may help placate Trump's voter base, its not likely to add any new voters.

 

[Craig4]

I wish they'd start breaking out results of these polls by state. It's time to start tracking what issues move the needle in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio.

 

[Lurch]

I understand JoeMorgue's cynicism. A *significant* minority of Americans are stoopid. It only takes that lot fired up to vote to outdo a more apathetic majority. The Dem voters must have it pounded into their heads that *every* damned vote counts.

And if a Shultz third party effort siphons off more Dem leaners than GOP leaners, the danger is enhanced.

So yeah, while it's *hopefully* not doom 'n gloom yet, there remains real potential for another WTF election.

 

[Stacko]

I understand JoeMorgue's cynicism. A *significant* minority of Americans are stoopid. It only takes that lot fired up to vote to outdo a more apathetic majority. The Dem voters must have it pounded into their heads that *every* damned vote counts.

And if a Shultz third party effort siphons off more Dem leaners than GOP leaners, the danger is enhanced.

So yeah, while it's *hopefully* not doom 'n gloom yet, there remains real potential for another WTF election.

His other problem is going to replicating his success with disillusioned voters now that he's a known quantity.

This disillusioned group -- 14% of all voters -- broke heavily for Trump: 69% to 15%, according to exit polls. About 1 in 7 in this group voted for someone other than the major party candidates. Most were independent voters, with 38% Republicans and 18% Democrats. Had they sat out the election instead, Clinton would have won in a landslide with 53% of the vote to Trump's 44%. Further evidence of this disillusionment can perhaps be found in total voter turnout; while votes are still being counted, early indications are that turnout is on par with its lowest rate in 20 years.

 

[acbytesla]

His other problem is going to replicating his success with disillusioned voters now that he's a known quantity.

I think the problem is worse than that for Trump. People are more likely to turnout to vote against something or someone. This is why negative advertising works. No need to make Trump out to be worse than he is. He really is that bad.
As crazy as Trump was during the campaign there will be no hiding behind the idea that Trump will be different as President. No rising to the occasion.

There is not going to be a turnout problem in that election. There won't be a Democratic candidate who was vilified and investigated EVERY DAY for 4 years leading into the election. No Ben Ghazzi or Hillary's emails to run up their unfavorable. They'll have 6 months at most.

I'm convinced that people will be stoked to vote against Trump. No one will believe the polls becoming overconfident either.

 

[Drewbot]

Yeah, they really fell for that shut-down trap, huh.

That was exactly how he wanted that to play out.

The Dems refused to come to the table and settle this in a bi-partisan fashion, and were unwilling to do something as terrible as secure the border, to stop the shutdown.

They were forced to tell America that they weren't willing to protect the border, in exchange for reopening the government.

Trump frames it as he would shut down the government to protect Americans, and the Dems will shut down the government to protect illegal immigrant criminals.

 

[Upchurch]

That was exactly how he wanted that to play out.

The Dems refused to come to the table and settle this in a bi-partisan fashion, and were unwilling to do something as terrible as secure the border, to stop the shutdown.

They were forced to tell America that they weren't willing to protect the border, in exchange for reopening the government.

What are you talking about? None of that happened.

Trump frames it as he would shut down the government to protect Americans, and the Dems will shut down the government to protect illegal immigrant criminals.

Trump will frame it to his advantage regardless of what actually happened. The vast majority of Americans blamed Trump for his shut down and do not believe there is a security emergency on the boarder.

 

[Drewbot]

Like I said, for the next 18 months you can keep telling Americans there is no emergency at the border, and that drug deaths and sex trafficking don't matter to you.

You won't win telling America that.

 

[Upchurch]

Like I said, for the next 18 months you can keep telling Americans there is no emergency at the border, and that drug deaths and sex trafficking don't matter to you.

You won't win telling America that.

Who is telling America that, exactly?

 

[quadraginta]

That was exactly how he wanted that to play out.

The Dems refused to come to the table and settle this in a bi-partisan fashion, and were unwilling to do something as terrible as secure the border, to stop the shutdown.

They were forced to tell America that they weren't willing to protect the border, in exchange for reopening the government.

Trump frames it as he would shut down the government to protect Americans, and the Dems will shut down the government to protect illegal immigrant criminals.

Trump refused a bipartsan bill and shut the government down for a month.

Only to accept another bipartisan bill which gave him less than he had refused and shut down the government for.

And this is the Democrats' fault ... how?

 

[Lurch]

Like I said, for the next 18 months you can keep telling Americans there is no emergency at the border, and that drug deaths and sex trafficking don't matter to you.

You won't win telling America that.

Drug deaths result from folks *wanting* and *buying* and *taking* drugs. They well know the dangers. It's their *choice* to do this. Money would be far better spent helping these people get off the drugs. The war on drugs is just one long litany of abject failure. And a Wall would be just one more chimerical part of this losing strategy. Follow the example of Portugal.

Funny how so much more angst and hand-wringing is engendered among the right-wingers concerning self-inflicted dying by *voluntary* drug use, but no such spurring to action in the sphere of tragic deaths by *involuntary* gunfire.

If I had to assign a scale of tragedy, an innocent victim of a shooting would engender rather more sympathy from me than would a junkie who overdoses. And note that my youngest brother recently died of a drug overdose, likely from fentanyl.

 

[Delphic Oracle]

Like I said, for the next 18 months you can keep telling Americans there is no emergency at the border

Jackbooted thugs are kidnapping children.

and that drug deaths and sex trafficking don't matter to you.

You won't win telling America that.

And you'll hardly convince anyone who hasn't said that they actually said that.

Your attempt at shaming and embarrassing others into silence is deeply insulting.

 

[Segnosaur]

The Dems refused to come to the table and settle this in a bi-partisan fashion, and were unwilling to do something as terrible as secure the border, to stop the shutdown.

Nope. Wrong. Bzzzzt. Do not pass go, do not collect $200.

The democrats had no problem with securing the border. They had no problem with programs like enhanced electronic monitoring. (Which actually does help border security.)

What they didn't want to do was fund a border wall, which would have done little or nothing to provide real security, and would have cost U.S. taxpayers hundreds of dollars each.

Got it?

 

[Elvis666]

I understand JoeMorgue's cynicism. A *significant* minority of Americans are stoopid. It only takes that lot fired up to vote to outdo a more apathetic majority. The Dem voters must have it pounded into their heads that *every* damned vote counts.

You are not wrong. But the Democratic Party has to realize that calling a significant portion of the voters derogatory names will result in some of the independent minority turning against them, even if those independents are not meant to be included in that group. I think the Dems have to field a candidate who is running for the presidency, instead of against Trump.

 

[CORed]

Drug deaths result from folks *wanting* and *buying* and *taking* drugs. They well know the dangers. It's their *choice* to do this. Money would be far better spent helping these people get off the drugs. The war on drugs is just one long litany of abject failure. And a Wall would be just one more chimerical part of this losing strategy. Follow the example of Portugal.

Funny how so much more angst and hand-wringing is engendered among the right-wingers concerning self-inflicted dying by *voluntary* drug use, but no such spurring to action in the sphere of tragic deaths by *involuntary* gunfire.

If I had to assign a scale of tragedy, an innocent victim of a shooting would engender rather more sympathy from me than would a junkie who overdoses. And note that my youngest brother recently died of a drug overdose, likely from fentanyl.

Perhaps more to the point, I believe that the wall will make little or no difference in illegal immigration. However, if adequately guarded, it might make a small difference. I know that the wall will not have even a small impact on drug smuggling. Given the amount of cross-border trade, drug smugglers will have no problem concealing drugs in commercial shipments. Besides, interdiction and prohibition are a failed approach to drug problems. They have never worked, and never will, for any kind of drugs.

 

[BobTheCoward]

That was exactly how he wanted that to play out.

The Dems refused to come to the table and settle this in a bi-partisan fashion, and were unwilling to do something as terrible as secure the border, to stop the shutdown.

They were forced to tell America that they weren't willing to protect the border, in exchange for reopening the government.

Trump frames it as he would shut down the government to protect Americans, and the Dems will shut down the government to protect illegal immigrant criminals.

The wall is unpopular. Trump's views were soundly rejected in the presidential election. That was before he failed to secure Mexican funding. Democrats running on no wall platform crushed the republicans in the house and senate. There isn't a world in which democrats need to come to the table and the polling proved that.

 

[WilliamSeger]

Like I said, for the next 18 months you can keep telling Americans there is no emergency at the border, and that drug deaths and sex trafficking don't matter to you.

You won't win telling America that.

On planet Earth: Broad disapproval of Trump's national emergency mirrors a critical 2020 problem for Trump
(paywalled)

We’re pretty far down a tricky path for President Trump, whose promises on the 2016 campaign trail to build a wall on the border with Mexico were never likely to come to fruition given the process for getting legislation passed by Congress. Much of the focus on Trump’s bold assertions focused on his proclamations that Mexico would cover the costs for the wall, but the wall itself, particularly as described by Trump and particularly once it became intermingled with Trump’s views on immigration, faced a rocky path forward.

During the past two months, the bumpiness of the path became manifest: Trump blocked government funding to try to force Democrats to capitulate; they didn’t; he took the loss. But on Friday, Trump launched a last-ditch effort to move the wall forward, declaring a national emergency focused on the border, potentially allowing him to allocate money to get it built. The courts will probably decide if that happens.

The move is not popular. As our Aaron Blake wrote on Tuesday morning, a new NPR-PBS NewsHour-Marist poll shows only about a third of the country thinks the declaration was a good idea. As you might expect, Republicans were more supportive than Democrats.

 

[BadBoy]

Funny how so much more angst and hand-wringing is engendered among the right-wingers concerning self-inflicted dying by *voluntary* drug use, but no such spurring to action in the sphere of tragic deaths by *involuntary* gunfire.

No idea what the "right wingers" think, but for me the issue with drugs is not the actual drug taking usually, it is all the crime associated with it like getting your house broken into by a junky who needs his next fix, or the collateral damage from stray bullets from drug related gang shootings etc etc.

I don't think people generally care if someone gets wasted in the privacy of their own home.