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The Trump Presidency 13: The (James) Baker's Dozen

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Doubt said:
Challenging you to put out an alternative hypothesis is not a fallacy at all. And by calling it a fallacy you reveal that you don't have one and are wasting everyone else's time again as usual.
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I don't think there is sufficient data to form a hypothesis worth anything. Current hypotheses are half-baked.
 
Belz... said:
Here's the thing: it won't be.



You know why? Because a sizeable portion of Americans wanted that nightmare; some even knew exactly what would happen, but voted that way anyway; some because they thought it was the right thing to do, others in order to spite you. Those people are still there, and they'll still vote come 2020 and beyond.
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And we'll still have at least two Trump justices on the Supreme Court.
 
BobTheCoward said:
I don't think there is sufficient data to form a hypothesis worth anything. Current hypotheses are half-baked.
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Now that is funny. The current hypotheses are based on people confessing in court.

The proper analogy here is somebody got caught speeding. Admitted to the cop that they were speeding. We point out that they had their foot on the accelerator and pushed it to the floor. You in turn point out that they could have done that with the car parked and it does not mean anything and we don't know that the car was really going anywhere.
 
BobTheCoward said:
Challenging you to put out an alternative hypothesis is not a fallacy at all. And by calling it a fallacy you reveal that you don't have one and are wasting everyone else's time again as usual.
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I don't think there is sufficient data to form a hypothesis worth anything. Current hypotheses are half-baked.
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No. The 'main' current hypothesis (that key members of the Trump campaign colluded with the Russians, and then lied to cover it up) is actually a pretty well formed hypothesis. And the majority of evidence (at least as known by the public at this point) supports that.

Now, any sort of alternative is pretty much half-baked, but that's expected...

Its sort of like 9/11 conspiracy theories. The official story is well known and fairly well fleshed out. Any sort of alternatives are 'half baked' because any attempt to flesh them out so that they are consistent with evidence ends up falling short.
 
dudalb said:
Looks as if Donnie is going to sign the budget...at least at this minute. He has gotten sort of an OK from President Limbaugh, but President Coulter is yet to be heard from.
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An eminence grise can influence the head of a country from the shadows.

So are these folks eminences center stage? Or eminences bullhorn? Or eminences stand on the king’s throne shouting stuff?
 
Mmm. A couple things for tonight. Looks like Whittaker's performance was... unsatisfactory enough that he's getting called back in. Link is to the letter sent to him. Anyone surprised that the Democrats are actually pushing back against the BS, unlike the Republicans did?

Next up... Kansas Representatives try to nullify gay marriage and imply LGBTQ is actually a secret society.

Sooooooo much idiocy in that. I would indeed love to see what they are calling "a daily code by which members may guide their daily lives, which makes it a denominational sect that is inseparably part of the religion of secular humanism," though. I still have yet to regret officially joining the Democrats, which I did because of their general stance related to gay people compared to the general Republican stance.
 
In a normal world this might merit its own thread but in 45's administration it's just "Ho Hum Another Reprehensible Money Grubbing Slut Reveals Himself".

Tom Barrack explained today that he forgot to say that murder isn't good. That's because he was so busy explaining the day before that people just need to have a better understanding of the Saudis and the Gulf States so that we'd know that murder is probably okay.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/13/politics/tom-barrack-trump-donor-khashoggi/index.html
 
https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1095758277730856968

On including back pay for federal contractors in the spending deal, Blunt tells reporters: “I’ve been told the president won’t sign that.”
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https://twitter.com/BlackBelted/status/1095765256620703749

Before folks think these are all white collar pros who take vissisitudes like this into account working client-to-consultant, this applies to janitors, cafeteria workers and maintenance all of whom worked during the shutdown for fear of losing their jobs. This is a big FU to them
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Well... Here's yet another move by the Trump Administration that shows what liars they are when it comes to their claims to value election security. In this case, they're not just not doing the things that they should be to fix the problems at hand, they're actually reducing the protections/countermeasures that were already in place. Given the situation at hand... it wouldn't be unreasonable to call that traitorous behavior, I think.
 
Squeegee Beckenheim said:
https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1095758277730856968



https://twitter.com/BlackBelted/status/1095765256620703749
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If there's a clause in the funding package to reimburse salaried or contract employees, then it'll go through. President Coulter is laying low, probably realizing her last gambit so emasculated him that he dropped ten points in his ratings. President Limbaugh is plugging the administration line - that it's getting built one way or another, so he hasn't been critical. The only noise is from the Freedom Caucus and their White Power Hour mouthpieces on Fox, and they're not enough to sway Donnie who's kicking his little legs furiously to try to keep his head above water. He can't get onto selling the 2020 plan if he's taking flak from every angle for having refused a deal that he ordered the Congress to put together.
 
Someone on Quora asked "Why do some British people not like Donald Trump?" Nate White, an articulate and witty writer from England wrote this magnificent response:

A few things spring to mind.

Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem.

For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace - all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed.
Edited by Agatha: 
Edited for rule 4. Please go to this link to read the whole thing
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newyorkguy said:
Again, we've never had a president who lost the popular election by 2.9 million votes. The closest was George W. Bush in 2000 (Link with totals) and Trump's losing margin was five times greater! Let's be honest, he won on a total fluke. I don't see lightning striking twice.
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Hey they have lots of chances to improve their disenfranchisement game, see the good work done in south carolina in the last election.
 
Doubt said:
Now that is funny. The current hypotheses are based on people confessing in court.

The proper analogy here is somebody got caught speeding. Admitted to the cop that they were speeding. We point out that they had their foot on the accelerator and pushed it to the floor. You in turn point out that they could have done that with the car parked and it does not mean anything and we don't know that the car was really going anywhere.
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No one has confessed to what the half baked hypothesis alleges. Flynn appears to have remained quiet about why he lied.
 
Segnosaur said:
No, from the looks of it, they are invoking Occam's razor.

The idea of Occam's razor is (to parahprase) the simplest solution is usually the correct one.

So, what's simpler:
- That there was collusion (based on things like Emails/texts, on the analysis by intelligence agencies, the timing of information releases) and that the lies about various meetings were just a way to cover up the collusion

- That, despite Trump Jr. claiming he "loved" the idea of doing illegal stuff, despite the fact that the intelligence agencies tracked the hacking back to Russia and the timing of data releases was beneficial to the Trump campaign, that somehow the lies and cover ups were to hide something else (which of course nobody in the Trump administration has yet admitted to.)
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I'm not the competition hypothesis. My position is the null hypothesis. (I know that we are not talking statistics).
 
Aridas said:
Mmm. A couple things for tonight. Looks like Whittaker's performance was... unsatisfactory enough that he's getting called back in. Link is to the letter sent to him. Anyone surprised that the Democrats are actually pushing back against the BS, unlike the Republicans did?

Next up... Kansas Representatives try to nullify gay marriage and imply LGBTQ is actually a secret society.

Sooooooo much idiocy in that. I would indeed love to see what they are calling "a daily code by which members may guide their daily lives, which makes it a denominational sect that is inseparably part of the religion of secular humanism," though. I still have yet to regret officially joining the Democrats, which I did because of their general stance related to gay people compared to the general Republican stance.
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I know it is silly to try to fit their “reasoning” into a logical framework, but if they are convinced that it is a religion, then shouldn’t the government give it protection under the First Amendment? I know that they are making the argument so that Christian churches can kick gays out and otherwise treat them poorly, but surely the government has to protect them from discrimination in non-religious settings.

ETA: in my mind I can clearly hear the contemp and disgust that would be in their voices every time that they say “religion of secular humanism.”
 
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