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Bitcoin - Part 2

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fromdownunder said:
A new crypto type e-currency that can actually be used to buy a cup of coffee, be quick and cheap to exchange, be transparent to users and become acceptable by Financial markets, Retailers and Joe Public may come along in the next few years and blow bitcoin out of the water. A product that can actually be used rather than just traded. Then Bitcoin becomes yesterday's news, like boo.com did.
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Right now, I can go into a coffee shop, order a coffee and pay with it by tapping my credit card on a card reader. Why would I need an e-currency when my good old credit card backed by good old British pounds in which I'm paid and in which I pay my taxes already does the job?

There's no demand (relatively speaking) amongst Joe Public for an e-currency.
 
jeremyp said:
Right now, I can go into a coffee shop, order a coffee and pay with it by tapping my credit card on a card reader. Why would I need an e-currency when my good old credit card backed by good old British pounds in which I'm paid and in which I pay my taxes already does the job?

There's no demand (relatively speaking) amongst Joe Public for an e-currency.
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Bitcoin is a solution looking for a problem.
 
ChrisBFRPKY said:
Those "claims" about BTC making a profit for those who hold it long enough are actually "facts" backed up by history
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Like the facts about how internet businesses are the future! Their stocks always go up, not please by my pets.com stocks from 2000. Why just look at the the years 1995-2000 on how internet stocks didm, they can not possibly go down!
 
ChrisBFRPKY said:
Those "claims" about BTC making a profit for those who hold it long enough are actually "facts" backed up by history.
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Only if you exclude the last year. For that part of history, Bitcoin has not recovered.

ChrisBFRPKY said:
There can be no reasonable argument to dispute these facts...
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Sure there is. The reasonable argument is you can't predict the future, and thus can't guarantee Bitcoin will ever again surpass its peak, or even rise from it's value of today.

ChrisBFRPKY said:
If you are looking at a short term graph, you can make an argument that BTC is falling...
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It's not an argument, it's an observation. Bitcoin has been on a downward trend for almost a year now. That's huge given that it's only been publicly traded for about 5 years.

ChrisBFRPKY said:
...and therefore losing money at the moment, but if you return to the historical record you'll see that this has happened before and is not entirely unexpected.
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Except you blithely ignore the part of the historical record you don't like.

ChrisBFRPKY said:
One thing is for certain, those who sell at a loss will lose and the record indicates those who have held historically have profited very well.
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Those who sell at a loss will lose and those who sell at a profit will profit. Another meaningless banal statement.

The record indicates that anyone who bought on or after December 17th of last year has been losing value ever since.
 
ponderingturtle said:
Like the facts about how internet businesses are the future! Their stocks always go up, not please by my pets.com stocks from 2000. Why just look at the the years 1995-2000 on how internet stocks didm, they can not possibly go down!
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Exactly!
 
jeremyp said:
Right now, I can go into a coffee shop, order a coffee and pay with it by tapping my credit card on a card reader. Why would I need an e-currency when my good old credit card backed by good old British pounds in which I'm paid and in which I pay my taxes already does the job?

There's no demand (relatively speaking) amongst Joe Public for an e-currency.
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You can do that with Bitcoin.

Just not everywhere, and it's slower, and more expensive, and the value more is manipulated by traders, and it's potentially as volatile as a Weimar-era reichsmark.

I read about some guy who ordered a $10 Pizza in NY and paid with Bitcoin.

It arrived two days later and cost $76.

https://www.wsj.com/video/what-you-...-76/9FE251D5-1BC4-4E6B-BA0F-E3424CDA9263.html

Let's hope hadn't smoked weed, that would have been an excruciating wait.
 
Mycroft said:
I'm not making a prophesy. I'm refuting the guy, ChrisBFRPKY, who is making a prophesy.
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Of course I could be wrong in my position that BTC will increase again, that would be a first as it always has increased in value after a drop. On the other hand, you're point of view has been proven wrong each and every time it was made in the past record. I find more comfort in my position on BTC than in yours. Only time will tell. Perhaps you'll be proven right this time, for the first time ever. Don't hold your breath though.
Chris B.
 
ChrisBFRPKY said:
Of course I could be wrong in my position that BTC will increase again, that would be a first as it always has increased in value after a drop.
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That sounds like magical thinking to me. There were actual reasons behind each of the previous runups in value and subsequent declines.

Is there a plausible scenario for a new peak in Bitcoin in today's cryptocurrency landscape? Or is it more plausible that Bitcoin's time has passed?
 
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jeremyp said:
Right now, I can go into a coffee shop, order a coffee and pay with it by tapping my credit card on a card reader. Why would I need an e-currency when my good old credit card backed by good old British pounds in which I'm paid and in which I pay my taxes already does the job?

There's no demand (relatively speaking) amongst Joe Public for an e-currency.
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Yes, so can I with my good old Aussie $'s. And I personally do not see a need to shift a perfectly fungible and quite stable form of currency into a form of currency that is much harder to find retailers for, moves around like kids in a Bounce Castle, and it costs fees for me to transfer.


But there are people around who simply do not like fiat currency and "Big Bank's/Governments control of same, and would use any adequate replacement. Whether there are enough of them, and whether such a product would ever be viable, well, I'll use the old let's wait and see tactic. But it is perfectly clear that that product is not Bitcoin in its present form.



Norm
 
ChrisBFRPKY said:
...it always has increased in value after a drop.
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Well of course it has. If it didn't - it wouldn't be after a drop - it would still be in the process of dropping. It's a tautology.

Now, whether it has always increased after a drop of x%, rather than continuing to drop is (I imagine) a potentially interesting point to examine, but I don't know nearly enough about crypto-currencies to know whether they stand up to that kind of analysis.

nb. I have no particular interest in Bitcoin and whether it goes up or down, it's not my jam at all, but data very much is, so things like this stand out to me.
 
It's not tautology. Because it's not true. For example on drop on 14th, the value didn't increase. It was just stable for few days. And then there was another drop on 19.
And if you take global time frame, It's still dropping since December 2017.
Before 2017, it might have been true. But it's been really long time.
 
Yes, but that's the point.

"It's still dropping since December 2017."

So it's still dropping. It's not after a drop. It's still dropping. It will only be 'after a drop' when it's no longer dropping - i.e. when it rises.

I take the point about stability though - although is it truly 'stable' or just 'relatively stable'? I can't imagine the prices actually stays the same - just doesn't change much.
 
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