Cont: Proof of Immortality VIII

Jabba said:
...on my tree
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No, that doesn't fix your proof. You are trying to sidestep the actual statistics of the immortality problem by invoking the Texas sharpshooter fallacy. You know you're doing it. The problem is that you simply don't want to agree that it's a fallacy. You want to cheat, and you want your critics to let you keep cheating. Changing someone else's analogy to also commit the same error doesn't fix either error.

Now you seem to want to talk about everything except what everyone wants to know from you -- how the magic number 10-100 was calculated. Since you can't possibly have missed all those requests for you to tell us, and since you pointedly avoided answering it by addressing other points in the pertinent posts, I'm sure you'll agree that your critics would be justified -- given your stubborn silence -- that the answer to their question is the one least favorable to your argument.
 
Jabba said:
Mojo,

- I'm not sure that P(E) = 1 is appropriate terminology, and seems like I just created more confusion by using it...
..
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Actually, you created more certainty, since it is now obvious that your argument is mathematically inconsistent.
 
Jabba said:
- I don't know much about the prior probabilities here, but my best guess is that the Bayes formula would include the following numbers:
- P(H|E) = .10*1/((.10*1) + (1*.01)) or .10/.11 or 91%.
- In other words, the posterior probability that your tree is seasonal is 91%.
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So P(H) + P(~H) = 1.01. Do you not see a problem with this?
 
JayUtah said:
Ah yes, of course. I was thinking of something else.
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@Jabba: This is how you admit a mistake and graciously accept correction, Jabba. You should try it. You have five years worth of posts patiently correcting your numerous mistakes to practice on.
 
Jabba said:
Hans,

- I think that you left out a couple of important words.
- H : Apples grow seasonally on my tree and it carries fresh ripe apples for a period of about five weeks every year.
- ~H : Apples do not grow seasonally on my tree but are available any time of the year.
- The likelihood of getting a ripe apple from my tree under H is about 1/10. Under ~H it is 1.
- I got a fresh apple from my tree. - The likelihood of getting a fresh apple from my tree is greater Under ~H than under H -- but the prior probability of H is much greater than the prior probability of ~H.
- I don't know much about the prior probabilities here, but my best guess is that the Bayes formula would include the following numbers:
- P(H|E) = .10*1/((.10*1) + (1*.01)) or .10/.11 or 91%.
- In other words, the posterior probability that your tree is seasonal is 91%.
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It doesn't matter who owns the tree. Just as it doesn't matter which self we are discussing here.

In my example, we can indeed infer that the tree is likely to be seasonal, because most apple trees are. None of us know exactly how likely, so putting in numbers in a formula is silly (and a bad habit from your side), but you are, from what data you do have, obviously mistaken: I'm in Denmark and the month is march. If I have apples on a tree, it is most certainly not seasonal!

The point in this is that the most likely event needs not be true. Unless you have extensive data to work from, you cannot generate mathematical evidence for anything, and actually disproving something is virtually impossible.

Hans
 
Monza said:
To reiterate what Jay said above, you have been talking about your current existence. Your body/brain doesn't exist on the spiritual plane.

Also, how is the thing that exists on the spiritual plane considered you? You are not brought back to life. What makes it you versus me, for example?
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Monza,
- If reincarnation is true, my self awareness is brought back to life. It's like having amnesia, and not knowing who you are, but you "wake up" as a fetus(?). and no one expects you to know who you are.
 
Pixel42 said:
@Jabba: This is how you admit a mistake and graciously accept correction, Jabba. You should try it. You have five years worth of posts patiently correcting your numerous mistakes to practice on.
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Jabba does this all the time, actually. At first glance it might even seem like a good thing. But in Jabba's case, he's just got a circular string of "something else" he's "thinking" about.
 
Jabba said:
If reincarnation is true, my self awareness is brought back to life. It's like having amnesia, and not knowing who you are, but you "wake up" as a fetus(?). and no one expects you to know who you are.
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Hilarious. In your model, your "self-awareness" isn't actually self-aware except when incarnated, and then only for the duration of the incarnation. In that respect it's functionally indistinguishable from materialism. And that's not surprising, because all the actual evidence favors materialism. You're trying to equivocate together a model that obeys all the evidence but then unparsimoniously postulates something "else" that has no attributes or properties, functions or effects. Yet this "else" somehow magically "exists" in a way that lets you pretend you've changed the equation.

From a statistics standpoint you're simply willing something into pseudo-existence that literally has no bearing on any of the observables. You speculate that it exists solely so you can give effect to your claim that "something" persists. This is the epitome of ad hoc reasoning.
 
Jabba said:
Monza,
- If reincarnation is true, my self awareness is brought back to life. It's like having amnesia, and not knowing who you are, but you "wake up" as a fetus(?). and no one expects you to know who you are.
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Ah. How does this feel different from materialism. I mean, what is the benefit to you? Are you telling yourself you will get to live eternally? What benefit is that if you actually have no way to know if you are an incarnation or a 'first'. With no memories, what ties the previous incarnation to the new one. What benefit does the previous incarnation get to enjoy if he will never actually know that he was re-incarnated. How does it feel different to the new body?

What EXACTLY gets to live forever? Pure awareness? Without memories, how does that awareness know it is continuous?

Your "immortality" is equivalent to me saying I am immortal because the carbon atoms in my body will never be destroyed.
 
Jabba said:
Monza,
- If reincarnation is true, my self awareness is brought back to life. It's like having amnesia, and not knowing who you are, but you "wake up" as a fetus(?). and no one expects you to know who you are.
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And if pigs could fly, bacon would be poultry.

Hans
 
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