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Bitcoin - Part 2

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Brokers were doing something exactly similar in the 1929 boom.
... a great deal of speculative trading was based on credit, what was known as "margin buying". An investor during the 1920s could purchase stock for cash or use his available cash as a ten percent downpayment or margin on a more sizeable purchase with ninety percent financed on loans from stockbrokers. This allowed investors to purchase ten times as much stock as they had money to pay for.​


In the 1980s I heard it been sold on the radio as "gearing". If the stock moved up by 2% you got a 20% return if one had a 10x gearing. They never told people that if it moved down by 2% one lost 20% - and then would have to pay in the money to cover the losses.

I have often wondered how much humans have changed in their ability to reason and calculate. Apart from learning, are our brains much the same as 10,000 years ago? Given the repeats of scams and rip-offs it would seem that not much has changed since the time of the Egyptians. The snake oil is always just new and improved, or a new wonder discovery. A new paradigm.

https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/paradigm

The word paradigm comes up a lot in the academic, scientific, and business worlds. A new paradigm in business could mean a new way of reaching customers and making money. In education, relying on lectures is a paradigm: if you suddenly shifted to all group work, that would be a new paradigm. When you change paradigms, you're changing how you think about something.
 
None.

There is no indication that the bitcoin price cycles won't continue as they have done for the last 8 years (for a few years anyway). However, technology and the finance market change so rapidly that there is no telling what the future holds. As always, "caveat emptor".


And if I buy a Kruger rand? Is my investment safer? If I take it to any gas station in a crisis I will likely get a tankful.

BTW - there are times where one can fairly reliably tell the future. A bus has lost it brakes and is headed for a cliff. Given the law of gravity, most people could tell that it will not end well. Crypto is headed for a digital cliff, and given the fundamentals and "laws" of economics, most can tell it also will not end well.
 
This is just part of the normal ups and downs of bitcoin prices.

Everybody who has ever said "bitcoin will never trade above $X again" has been wrong. I have no reason to believe that you have picked it this time.
This time the news cycle is different, I know that as someone who took little notice previously, but I wouldn't bet body parts we've seen the last high. Markets can be 50% overvalued on the way to being 200% overvalued.
 
Brokers were doing something exactly similar in the 1929 boom.
... a great deal of speculative trading was based on credit, what was known as "margin buying". An investor during the 1920s could purchase stock for cash or use his available cash as a ten percent downpayment or margin on a more sizeable purchase with ninety percent financed on loans from stockbrokers. This allowed investors to purchase ten times as much stock as they had money to pay for.​
What are you trying to prove here? There are many more ways and opportunities to leverage investments today than existed in 1929. In fact, international movements of money have little to do with imports and exports any more. It is all financial derivatives. The whole world is built on a house of cards.
 
And if I buy a Kruger rand? Is my investment safer? If I take it to any gas station in a crisis I will likely get a tankful.
If your thorough research shows that the kruger rand is an extremely stable currency then I won't argue with you. All I can say is that the standard deviation of how much petrol you could buy (directly or indirectly) with bitcoin in a year's time would be much higher than with a kruger rand.

BTW - there are times where one can fairly reliably tell the future. A bus has lost it brakes and is headed for a cliff. Given the law of gravity, most people could tell that it will not end well.
duh.
Crypto is headed for a digital cliff, and given the fundamentals and "laws" of economics, most can tell it also will not end well.
Unless you can identify what has suddenly become defective about bitcoin (but was working fine before) this is just a stupid non-sequitur.
 
What are you trying to prove here? There are many more ways and opportunities to leverage investments today than existed in 1929. In fact, international movements of money have little to do with imports and exports any more. It is all financial derivatives. The whole world is built on a house of cards.
The only solid predictable thing in this world is bitcoin, eh?
 
(snip)
Unless you can identify what has suddenly become defective about bitcoin (but was working fine before) this is just a stupid non-sequitur.

Nope. Bitcoin gets "sold" as an amazing substitute for fiat money. The bus climbs the hill. People start to learn more about the lack of value and stability of bitcoin. The bus starts downhill. People panic about owning valueless bitcoin. The bus has lost it's brakes. The cliff looms large ahead.

The complexity is hiding the problems with bitcoin so the panic starts with vague worrying and the sheep mill about. The value bounces up and down before the sheep stampede for the exit.
 
Nope. Bitcoin gets "sold" as an amazing substitute for fiat money. The bus climbs the hill. People start to learn more about the lack of value and stability of bitcoin. The bus starts downhill. People panic about owning valueless bitcoin. The bus has lost it's brakes. The cliff looms large ahead.
Still an invalid analogy. There are no brakes to speak of in bitcoin. The lack of stability in bitcoin was known right from the get go. The cliff is purely a figment of your imagination.

The complexity is hiding the problems with bitcoin so the panic starts with vague worrying and the sheep mill about. The value bounces up and down before the sheep stampede for the exit.
There is no shortage of fools looking to get rich quick. However these are not the sheep.

The sheep are the ones who say, "Something is bad therefore bitcoin is bad".
 
Warren Buffet has no position in cryptos. They will end badly he states, which is the least surprising thing he ever said.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11973270


You can always tell how seriously to take somebody by how much they back themselves:
The Chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway refused to take a short position on Bitcoin.
"We don't own any, we're not short any, we'll never have a position in them," he said.
"I get into enough trouble with things I think I know something about", he said.
 
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Still an invalid analogy. There are no brakes to speak of in bitcoin. The lack of stability in bitcoin was known right from the get go. The cliff is purely a figment of your imagination.


There is no shortage of fools looking to get rich quick. However these are not the sheep.

The sheep are the ones who say, "Something is bad therefore bitcoin is bad".

The cliff is when a stock or currency goes into free-fall. Down is the only option.

On a coin price index the first 100 listed currencies are mostly down by about 5 to 15%. Only 5 are up by about 1 to 4%.
 
Do you mean like in 2011 when bitcoin went into free fall and was never heard from again? :rolleyes:

So I looked for the 2011 fall on the internet and found a good article:

Still true today. Free fall a-coming - just bigger, much bigger, ginormomous in fact.

https://www.wired.com/2011/11/mf_bitcoin/

When Nakamoto’s paper came out in 2008, trust in the ability of governments and banks to manage the economy and the money supply was at its nadir. The US government was throwing dollars at Wall Street and the Detroit car companies. The Federal Reserve was introducing “quantitative easing,” essentially printing money in order to stimulate the economy. The price of gold was rising. Bitcoin required no faith in the politicians or financiers who had wrecked the economy—just in Nakamoto’s elegant algorithms. Not only did bitcoin’s public ledger seem to protect against fraud, but the predetermined release of the digital currency kept the bitcoin money supply growing at a predictable rate, immune to printing-press-happy central bankers and Weimar Republic-style hyperinflation.

“Bitcoin enthusiasts are almost evangelists,” Bruce Wagner says. “They see the beauty of the technology. It’s a huge movement. It’s almost like a religion. On the forum, you’ll see the spirit.

Beyond the most hardcore users, skepticism has only increased. Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman wrote that the currency’s tendency to fluctuate has encouraged hoarding. Stefan Brands, a former ecash consultant and digital currency pioneer, calls bitcoin “clever” and is loath to bash it but believes it’s fundamentally structured like “a pyramid scheme” that rewards early adopters. “I think the big problems are ultimately the trust issues,” he says. “There’s nothing there to back it up. I know the counterargument, that that’s true of fiat money, too, but that’s completely wrong. There’s a whole trust fabric that’s been established through legal mechanisms.”
 
Unless you can identify what has suddenly become defective about bitcoin (but was working fine before) this is just a stupid non-sequitur.
What has become defective is concern that the price has reached such an elevated level that it will soon cease to rise further. The only thing that "works" about Bitcoin is its role as an object of speculation, and that will end at some maximum price. Have we passed that? Nobody knows. But Bitcoin owners want to get out before the crash, after they have offloaded their holdings to the simpletons and libertarian ideologues who may still want to buy these things.

Here's a question for you: in 1720, what suddenly became defective about South Sea Company shares when they reached £1,000, but was working fine before? That question doesn't look like a stupid non-sequitur to me.
 
So I looked for the 2011 fall on the internet and found a good article:
Except that the article says nothing about 2011 whatsoever. It is just opinions from Johnny Smith about something completely different.

Still true today. Free fall a-coming - just bigger, much bigger, ginormomous in fact.
It doesn't become fact just because you make it up. 2011 has proven you completely and utterly wrong.
 
What has become defective is concern that the price has reached such an elevated level that it will soon cease to rise further.
Like I said in the post above: something doesn't become a fact just because you made it up.

Here's a question for you: in 1720, what suddenly became defective about South Sea Company shares when they reached £1,000, but was working fine before?
Puh-leeze! South Sea got its value on the strength of its monopoly on trade with South America even though the War of the Spanish Succession rendered any trade moot. That didn't stop the company promoting "extravagant rumours" about its trade prospects in an attempt to pump up its share price.

The maintained a veneer of respectability by trading its shares for government debt but that could only work as long as its share price continued to rise. Ultimately when the truth was known about its trade prospects, the house of cards fell down.

This fraud has nothing whatsoever to do with bitcoin today but in your mind, South Sea was bad therefore bitcoin is bad.

That question doesn't look like a stupid non-sequitur to me.
Now you know that it absolutely is.
 
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