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Cont: The Trump Presidency Part III

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Who cares if it is permitted? If true, it would tell us that Mueller is unethical, and he has now become another out-of-control special prosecutor, just as all others before him became.

Everyone that will be shocked when nothing comes of it because it is all legal will be affected, whether they care or not.

It is permitted for non special prosecutors, also.
 
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Today I think I have broken my personal record for both hours of TV watched and amount of popcorn eaten. This is amazing. As a relatively young guy (35) this could be a watershed political moment for my generation in the way that Watergate was for my parents. Sad to see this happen in our gov't, but exciting times.
 
Take your chances folks, don't incriminate Trump and hope he pardons you, sure. But it's a gamble because it's being echoed enough for Trump to hear, firing the special prosecutor is the straw that got Nixon impeached. Surely getting a pardon is not a safe gamble for these guys. Trading the dirt on Trump for a lighter sentence might just be more of a sure bet.
 
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About as insightful as your "I am at least 80% confident" ploy, which looks so well-considered, almost mathematical in its exactness, and yet is as convincing and relevant as indescript stuff pulled out of dark holes.
I thought about the 80% (while guffawing) and wondered what the upper bounds might be. I envisioned something along the lines of 91.5%.
 
Today I think I have broken my personal record for both hours of TV watched and amount of popcorn eaten. This is amazing. As a relatively young guy (35) this could be a watershed political moment for my generation in the way that Watergate was for my parents. Sad to see this happen in our gov't, but exciting times.

FOr those of us who grew up in the 1970's it's deja vu all over again.

It is turning out to be a good year for the two massive events of the 60 and 70s:The Vietnam War and Watergate.
 
Sarah does a bad reading of a disingenuous bar tab story to push the tax cuts.

Have to wait to unpack the numbers but it reminds me of the trick story about the three men renting rooms for $100 total... get refund of xxx... where'd the missing dollar go? That one.

She left out the bank balances of the ten people (snarkily making them reporters... concerned of course with... fairness), and how the advantages of current law and tax code enabled those personal fortunes.

Ballpark... paying an extra 10 million out of 50 million is a damn sight less onerous than paying an extra thousand out of fifty. It may hurt the ego more, but it's the difference between having a third vacation home or getting the second yacht, and keeping the car running so you can get to work. :rolleyes:

Rampant socialism is bad (IMO), but so is Gordon Gecko. ;)
That whole WTF example thing was really a, "Can we trick the base to believe a tax cut for billionaires isn't really a tax cut for billionaires?" Yes, yes we can.


Hilarious Tweet: If one reporter paid $3 and one paid $4, how fast was the train going when your advisers were indicted? :sdl:
 
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Absolutely. I am at least 80% confident that Mueller brought this out now to divert from the fact that his investigation is predicted on a lie.

Jeez, is that really the last straw you can find to grasp? First, your memory seems to be very fuzzy if you really think Mueller's investigation was "predicated on" the Steele dossier. It was mainly "predicated on" wanting to know how and why Russians were trying to influence our election by leaking hacked emails to aid Trump's campaign. But it was also predicated on wanting to know why so many of Trump's people had so many contacts with Russians and then lied about them, and why Trump was playing footsie with Putin, and why Trump tried so hard to pressure Comey into backing off Flynn and then fired him when he wouldn't.

And second, if the Steele dossier pointed Mueller to things to look into and Mueller found evidence sufficient to bring charges, then calling the dossier a lie is laughably disingenuous. It's also irrelevant; if Mueller got three indictments with one confession (so far), then he's got solid evidence regardless of what you think his investigation was "predicated on."
 
A better defense would be "No proof that Trump knew about this when it happened" rather then try to deny that anything happened.
 
A better defense would be "No proof that Trump knew about this when it happened" rather then try to deny that anything happened.

It's going to end up at, "He had to do it in order to beat Crooked Hillary!" before this is over.
 
Another Tweet:

And so 10 reporters go into a bar, the bill is $19732, so you carry the 3, divided by 7.... WHAT THE HELL IS HAPPENING?

Here's the quote. See if you can unpack this slight of hand: USA Today: Read Sarah Sanders' long-winded tax reform intro from Monday's White House press briefing
Suppose that every day, 10 people –- for our purposes, we’ll say reporters -– go out for beer, and the bill for all 10 comes to $100. If these 10 reporters paid their tab every night the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:

The first four, the poorest, would pay nothing. The fifth would pay $1. The sixth would pay $3. The seventh would pay $7. The eighth would pay $12. The ninth would pay $18. The tenth, the richest, would pay $59. So that's what they decided to do.

The 10 reporters drank in the bar every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the bar owner threw them a curveball. “Since you're all such good customers," he said, "I'm going to reduce the cost of your daily beer by $20.” Drinks for the 10 reporters would now cost just $80.

The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes. So the first four were unaffected; they would still drink for free. But what about the other six? How could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would get their fair share? These are the reporters after all, so they’re concerned with fairness.

They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from everybody's share, then the fifth reporter and the sixth reporter would each end up being paid to drink beer.

So the bar owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man's bill by a higher percentage the poorer he was. By doing that, he explained, they’d continue following the principle of the tax system they'd been using. So he proceeded to work out the amounts he suggested that each should pay now.

And so the fifth reporter, like the first four, now paid nothing. He got a 100 percent saving. The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3, a 33 percent saving. The seventh now paid $5 instead of $7, a 28 percent saving. The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12, a 25 percent saving. The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18, which was a 22 percent saving. And the tenth now paid $49 instead of $59, a 16 percent saving.

So each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to drink for free. But once outside the bar, the reporters began to compare their savings. "I only got a dollar out of the $20 saving," declared the sixth reporter.

And she pointed to the tenth reporter, "he got $10."

"Yes, that's right," exclaimed the fifth reporter. "I only saved a dollar too. It's unfair that he received ten times more benefit than me!"

"That's true!" shouted the seventh reporter. "Why should he get $10 back, when I got only $2? The wealthy gets all the breaks."

"Wait a minute," yelled the first four reporters in unison, "we didn't get anything at all. This new tax system exploits the poor!"

The nine reporters yelled at the tenth and made him feel bad.

So the next night the tenth man didn't show up for drinks, and the nine sat down and had their beers without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important. They no longer had enough money between them all to even cover half of the bill.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how our tax system works. The people who already pay the highest taxes will naturally benefit from a tax reduction, but not the largest percent benefit. Taxing them too much -- attack them -- and they might start drinking overseas, where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier.

This is a silly story, of course, but it illustrates some very important points. Our tax cuts and reforms will create a fairer system that works better for everyone. And it will make our country the friendliest in the world for American families trying to build a better life for themselves and their children, and for American companies seeking a competitive edge.
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OK, I unpacked it. Pure red herring bull ****.

We aren't talking about a generous bartender giving out discounts. The budget is supposed to be revenue neutral. Someone has to pay that $20 in order to keep the tax revenue neutral.

Sanders treating reporters and taxpayers like ignorant children isn't going to fly unchallenged when the challenge is something as simple as what I just posted.
 
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Jeez, is that really the last straw you can find to grasp? First, your memory seems to be very fuzzy if you really think Mueller's investigation was "predicated on" the Steele dossier. It was mainly "predicated on" wanting to know how and why Russians were trying to influence our election by leaking hacked emails to aid Trump's campaign.

There are two kinds of investigations: counterintelligence and criminal. You don't appoint special counsel to do a counterintelligence investigation. In fact, you can't. There is no authorization for such a thing. The special counsel law is for investigating crimes. Mueller's appointment was based on the allegation that crimes had been committed by the Trump campaign, even though, contrary to DOJ guidelines, Rosenstein's letter did not actually state there was probable cause to believe that crimes had been committed. Pursuing financial crimes by Manafort and his crony was not mentioned, nor would it have been a basis for appointing a special prosecutor. There was no reason that the FBI couldn't investigate Manafort themselves, as they had been doing, off and on, since 2012 or so, apparently.

But it was also predicated on wanting to know why so many of Trump's people had so many contacts with Russians and then lied about them, and why Trump was playing footsie with Putin, and why Trump tried so hard to pressure Comey into backing off Flynn and then fired him when he wouldn't.

I think very few of the so-called lies about contacts were lies. These people were meeting hundreds, if not thousands, of new people during a frenetic campaign that spanned a year. It is not surprising if they either couldn't remember a causal contact, or believed that such casual contact was not worth reporting.

Another thing is that the level of contact with Russia strikes me as quite low. I would bet that if you conducted the same audit of the Clinton campaign you would find a much higher level of contact with pretty much every foreign country on Earth, including Russia. It was the dossier (which is obviously total garbage) that focused intense scrutiny on the Trump campaign. It is a trivial matter to cherrypick from such intense scrutiny (i.e. ignore exculpatory information and only publicize inculpatory information) to cast any campaign or any person in a bad light.

Honestly (and I really mean this), I am surprised at just how "clean" Trump's campaign really was. I think they were probably just too overwhelmed and understaffed even to pursue nefarious deeds. The campaign was also too naive (or incompetent) to play the game the right way, like the Clintons do, with layers of intermediaries. For that reason, I think any illegalities would be easy to uncover. The fact that they haven't been uncovered yet is very strong evidence that they don't exist.

And second, if the Steele dossier pointed Mueller to things to look into and Mueller found evidence sufficient to bring charges, then calling the dossier a lie is laughably disingenuous. It's also irrelevant; if Mueller got three indictments with one confession (so far), then he's got solid evidence regardless of what you think his investigation was "predicated on."

Well, as my bet with you shows, I believe that it does matter that the dossier was baseless, from a due process perspective. But, in any event, there is still no evidence for a dossier connected crime. Manafort et al.'s crimes are from before the campaign and were already publicly suspected by the time the dossier alluded to them. That is, there are no allegations in the dossier with respect to Manafort's receipt of payments from the pro-Russian Ukraine party that the FBI (and the New York Times) didn't already know.

As for Papa-whatever, he is guilty only of a process crime. That is, he committed a crime only because he allowed himself to be interviewed by the FBI and then proceeded to lie to them (maybe). It will be interesting to see what Papa-whatever's punishment is. I bet it is extremely light. Probably a suspended sentence.
 
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That whole WTF example thing was really a, "Can we trick the base to believe a tax cut for billionaires isn't really a tax cut for billionaires?" Yes, yes we can.


Hilarious Tweet: If one reporter paid $3 and one paid $4, how fast was the train going when your advisers were indicted? :sdl:

OK, I unpacked it. Pure red herring bull ****.

We aren't talking about a generous bartender giving out discounts. The budget is supposed to be revenue neutral. Someone has to pay that $20 in order to keep the tax revenue neutral.

Sanders treating reporters and taxpayers like ignorant children isn't going to fly unchallenged when the challenge is something as simple as what I just posted.


If she had pulled this gas-lighting on just about any other day... the networks would still be full of laughter sometime next week. :rolleyes:

As it stands so far today... she's getting a free pass.
(and she's quite the poor storyteller... surprising in this case, she's ridiculously well informed and prepared in a normal presser.)
 
Today I think I have broken my personal record for both hours of TV watched and amount of popcorn eaten. This is amazing. As a relatively young guy (35) this could be a watershed political moment for my generation in the way that Watergate was for my parents. Sad to see this happen in our gov't, but exciting times.

Same here -- I've previously had little interest in "politics" in all senses of the word. But having caught Spicer's post-Inauguration day rant, it hooked me and I've been glued to the news ever since. It's fascinating and horrifying.
 
Such an insightful analysis and rebuttal. That's why I come to this forum - to read such elegant and thoughtful contributions. :rolleyes:

It's my conclusion, and yes it's insightful. Almost four years here and you can't bother to use skepticism on your own political opinions. That says it all, really.
 
It is also equal evidence that I stole it, exchanged sex for milk,used a teleporter, or was gifted it by the store owner. There are many explanations for how it got there. I'm asking for evidence that actually narrows down the list.
Equal evidence? eh? The probability that I bought it or teleported it into my fridge are equal, are they? So if a suspect is found in possession of a million dollars, that is equal evidence that he stole it or that he received it from the Tooth Fairy, and you can think of no way of narrowing down the list?

I'm on holiday in Dublin just now. That is equal evidence that I travelled from Scotland to Ireland by plane or by magic carpet. These are two explanations of how I got here; and you can think of no way of narrowing down these two possibilities?
 
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