Brexit: Now What? Part III

[quadraginta]

dup

 

[quadraginta]

Or cannot grow what we want year-round. I note good availability of British produce during summer/autumn but less availability during winter/spring.

Maybe we'll end up back with my experience of the 1970s. For most people, most of the time, you eat what's locally available which means a lot of root vegetables but not a lot of fresh fruit in the winter .

I was talking about this with Mrs. qg just recently.

She loves her fruit, but even these days there are small seasonal fluctuations in availability of different items, in spite of the fact that we get fruit from all over the world.

She seems to have forgotten (she is certainly old enough to remember) and the younger cohorts coming up have never known just how seasonal many products used to be. They are accustomed to seeing (for example) a wide variety of apples in their grocery stores all year long. She was a bit miffed because her favored Fuji varietal is somewhat scare at this moment. It won't last, just a weakness in the overlap between seasons in different parts of the world.

Fresh apples used to be seasonal. We didn't get them from New Zealand when our season was over. I grew up in apple country, the first cider pressing of the harvest season was something of an event. We enjoyed fresh apples as long as we could, and then made do with canned and preserved until the next year.

Grapes are another example. Tomatoes, oranges, nectarines, etc., etc. Nearly everything that couldn't be stored in a silo was seasonal. Now we expect to see all these and more ever time we go into a supermarket. Many items that are now common were virtually unknown, or at best rare curiosities.

Cheap international shipping is a comparatively recent development. (I recently read an article describing how overseas shipping cost about $450/ton (in today's dollars) in 1955. Now it's down to about $50/ton. The shipping fraction of the cost of a good from overseas is negligible to the point of insignificance.) Refrigerated container shipping is even more recent.

In the absence of international commerce the produce sections of the grocery stores would need a lot less shelf space. They wouldn't have anywhere nearly as many things to offer.

Probably the rest of the store as well.

 

[Information Analyst]

I was talking about this with Mrs. qg just recently.

She loves her fruit, but even these days there are small seasonal fluctuations in availability of different items, in spite of the fact that we get fruit from all over the world.

She seems to have forgotten (she is certainly old enough to remember) and the younger cohorts coming up have never known just how seasonal many products used to be. They are accustomed to seeing (for example) a wide variety of apples in their grocery stores all year long.

Many a time have I reminded Mrs Analyst that I did not see a pepper in a regular supermarket until the mid-/late-1980s.

 

[fagin]

In 2015 we exported £18 billion in food to the EU and imported £39 billion so a net import of £21 billion. Our net contribution to the EU was over £8 billion.

If we only imported food from the EU then any contribution over £4.6 billion was the equivalent of a 22% tariff - but, of course, we imported other stuff besides food from the EU.

It's not as clear cut as the remain enthusiasts in this thread would have you believe - you need to consider the pros as well as the cons - something that most of them aren't prepared to do.

Enjoy driving your UK car. Would you pick a Morgan or a TVR?

 

[The Don]

So what does the exporting country do with the 22% tariffs they'll be raking in?

Maybe they'll spend some of that on farmer subsidies so as to make the food cheaper?

Not if they're in the EU they can't.

If they're outside the EU, who knows ?

In any case, as long as the food is cheaper than what we currently pay the EU (including our EU payments of course) then we don't need to worry too much about how much of the payment is for the food versus how much is tariff.

As well as double-counting benefits, you seem to be double-counting costs. I realise that Brexiteers are largely impervious to experts but the consensus seems to be that failing to come to an agreement with the EU will result in significantly more expensive food in the UK.

 

[Aber]

Britain is a net importer of food, any tariffs we pay will vastly outweigh tariffs that we receive.

As I understand it tariffs are paid to the government of the importing country, and passed on as a cost to the consumers.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

As I understand it tariffs are paid to the government of the importing country, and passed on as a cost to the consumers.

Indeed. Higher costs of produce will be the result whether imported or local.

 

[ceptimus]

So where does the money end up? Let's say after Brexit Britain buys wine from France and lamb from New Zealand. What tariffs apply to the wine and the lamb? Which country or organization gets any monies due, and what do they do with them?

 

[Wudang]

Glyn Roberts, the FUW’s president, said: “Grayling seems unaware of the results of the economic modelling commissioned by his colleagues in Defra, which paint a far more complex picture for the UK’s many agricultural sectors, and suggest in some ‘harder’ Brexit scenarios UK food production would collapse.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...aims-that-uk-can-grow-more-dismissed-as-tripe

 

[Garrison]

Let's not forget that if the free movement of labour ends with Brexit the agricultural sector will struggle to maintain current productivity never mind expand.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

So where does the money end up? Let's say after Brexit Britain buys wine from France and lamb from New Zealand. What tariffs apply to the wine and the lamb? Which country or organization gets any monies due, and what do they do with them?

The money goes to the UK government which will spend it (and more) on subsidising farmers and benefits for all the workers laid off as a result of Brexit and the import duties going the other way. Or spunk it all away on tax bribes for voters. Or working benefits for the people forced to take the low pay jobs vacated by immigrants.

It'll all go into the massive Brexit black hole and not even touch the sides. Thanks.

 

[ceptimus]

If the money goes in tax bribes or working benefits to British people, isn't that a good thing?

 

[Craig B]

If the money goes in tax bribes or working benefits to British people, isn't that a good thing?

No.

 

[Darat]

In 2015 we exported £18 billion in food to the EU and imported £39 billion so a net import of £21 billion. Our net contribution to the EU was over £8 billion.

If we only imported food from the EU then any contribution over £4.6 billion was the equivalent of a 22% tariff - but, of course, we imported other stuff besides food from the EU.

It's not as clear cut as the remain enthusiasts in this thread would have you believe - you need to consider the pros as well as the cons - something that most of them aren't prepared to do.

You seem to think food is simply a matter of the lowest cost.

 

[Aber]

So where does the money end up? Let's say after Brexit Britain buys wine from France and lamb from New Zealand. What tariffs apply to the wine and the lamb? Which country or organization gets any monies due, and what do they do with them?

A little bit of googling suggests an import tariff of 32% on wine; and 13% on lamb (although NZ has a tariff free quota on imports to the EU and it is unclear whether that would transfer to the UK). UK exports of lamb will get hit by equivalent tariffs in their European markets but this will be offset by the fall in the value of sterling.

Overall

Lamb exports will probably be unchanged; NZ lamb imports will be more expensive (due to the FX rate), UK sourced lamb will be no more expensive in sterling terms. Probably no major change in prices to the consumer, although this will depend on changes in UK farming policy.

EU wine imports will be more expensive (although UK duty accounts for a large chunk of the end price) due to tariffs and FX changes; if new trade deals are done with non EU suppliers then prices for their wines should fall.

 

[Aber]

You seem to think food is simply a matter of the lowest cost.

You've obviously never met a buyer for the supermarkets...

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

If the money goes in tax bribes or working benefits to British people, isn't that a good thing?

Not in the slightest, no.

I also forgot about bribing religious bigots to keep the government in power. That was quite expensive too.

 

[The Don]

Not in the slightest, no.

Not least because any such bribe would be highly regressive from a tax perspective. It's likely that the tariffs on imported food will be paid by consumers, which includes the poorest in society, whereas tax bribes benefit the wealthiest in society.

 

[Craig B]

Not least because any such bribe would be highly regressive from a tax perspective. It's likely that the tariffs on imported food will be paid by consumers, which includes the poorest in society, whereas tax bribes benefit the wealthiest in society.

Likewise, benefit payments to working people are reduced if their salaries are raised, creating a "poverty trap"; or the equivalent of a huge percentage tax rise .... but on low, not high, incomes.

 

[Henri McPhee]

One of my sisters is now complaining about bloody Boris Johnson with regard to Brexit.