Brexit: Now What? Part III

[ddt]

Operation Stack is going to be a permanent fixture on the M20.

Why? That's traffic bound for continental Europe. By the time of Brexit, most EU based companies will have switched to other suppliers, I presume. They're not waiting to go back to the 1970s glory days of British quality manufacturing.

 

[The Don]

Why? That's traffic bound for continental Europe. By the time of Brexit, most EU based companies will have switched to other suppliers, I presume. They're not waiting to go back to the 1970s glory days of British quality manufacturing.

The trucks that delivered all the stuff to the UK will still have to leave and go back home. The UK will still have to import a great deal.

 

[Tolls]

Why? That's traffic bound for continental Europe. By the time of Brexit, most EU based companies will have switched to other suppliers, I presume. They're not waiting to go back to the 1970s glory days of British quality manufacturing.

I did think about that, but that's why the queue won't be all the way up the M1 to Leeds. As The Don says, we'll still be importing things...though obviously not as much stuff as we won't have any money.

 

[ddt]

More Orwellian rewriting of history. The Scottish referendum was in 2014. Although some were agitating for an EU referendum, it was not a certainty at the time due to the impending 2015 general election. Since 2010 Labour had ruled out a referendum, while the Tories and the Lib-Dems proposed one in the 2015 election manifestos.

And at the time of the Scottish Indyref, and the campaign, Cameron had already publicly pledged that it would get into the election manifesto.

You clearly do not understand the graph you yourself cited. As I pointed out, it actually shows that the majority support shifted toward staying in the EU and away from leaving before the Scottish referendum, a trend that consolidated throughout 2015, and did not significantly fall even after the general election resulted in the certainty of an EU referendum. If you can't properly interpret statistical information that actually undermines your claims, you probably should avoid drawing attention to it.

Eyeballing that graph, the two trend lines intersect at week 17 in 2014, i.e., end of April (I think each fine grey line stands for two weeks). Even at its best, mid-2015, Remain was at 45% and Leave at 38%. Given the wild variation in polling outcomes, that's firmly within the margin of error. You shouldn't oversell this point. Remain never seemed a done deal, and specifically when you look at the polls in Q2 of 2014 - i.e., at the time of the Indyref campaign - you see several poll outcomes where Leave won. That certainly doesn't say "no is never gonna happen".

1) Scotland votes to leave the EU. As per the stated position of the EU, an independent Scotland will be out of the EU, and will have to apply to join. A number of countries might make that tough, as they don't want to encourage their own secessionist movements (e.g. Spain and Catalonia). A independent Scotland being out of the EU is therefore a high probability - if not a certainly - and subsequent admission is only a possibility.

Actually, that point has been hugely oversold. The Spanish PM was also on record that he would not be the spoilsport for a Scottish accession, a fact that the British press didn't publish.

2) Scotland votes to stay in the UK. The likelihood of an EU referendum happening is still a toss-up between whether Labour or the Tories win the 2015 general election. By the time of the Scottish referendum and subsequently, the polls are clearly favouring a Remain vote. Scotland being out of the EU depends on, a) an EU referendum actually happening, which was not a certainty, and b) a clear trend favouring Remain being reversed at the last minute. In other words, something improbable following something that was only a possibility.

Fair enough about (a), Labour was in the lead at the time. But you're overselling the trend in Brexit polling which was not that convincing. I count in that graph at least 5 individual polls in the months before the Indyref where Leave outpolled Remain.

 

[ddt]

The trucks that delivered all the stuff to the UK will still have to leave and go back home. The UK will still have to import a great deal.

Empty. That's no problem for customs, is it? Nor for border control. I've never had a problem getting out of a country, not even the GDR or the Soviet Union.

Why import stuff? British apples infested with British maggots because they've been picked too late by British formerly lazy welfare buns are delicious. You don't need no stinkin' Dutch tomatoes or Danish pork or German eggs or French wine. And in order to distribute evenly what you do produce, the Royal Mint (or whoever does that) surely still has the originals of the rationing coupons from the 1940s.

I did think about that, but that's why the queue won't be all the way up the M1 to Leeds. As The Don says, we'll still be importing things...though obviously not as much stuff as we won't have any money.

Wait, where do you plan to put the customs? Do you plan to put the customs around London and make the whole M25 into the queue? Better then also block all the junctions. Why not simply turn Dover Castle into a carpark?

BTW, the name of that "Operation Stack" is highly misleading. In computing science, a "stack" is a data structure where you "push" a new element onto the stack and "pop" the last pushed element off the stack (and you have no way of removing the oldest element off the stack). I don't think it worked that way. A queue is a list where you (only) can remove the first added element.

 

[The Don]

Empty. That's no problem for customs, is it?

Only if you believe that the vehicles are empty when they leave. They will also presumably still be subject to security checks.

It's estimated that the workload for customs will increase sixfold as a result of leaving the EU so unless exports to the EU fall to a tiny fraction of their current level then there'll still be issues.

Not even the archest Remainer has suggested that exports to the EU will drop by more than 80%

Nor for border control. I've never had a problem getting out of a country, not even the GDR or the Soviet Union.

I have.

The worst was leaving the US when BA had failed to record my arrival properly six weeks previously. I was detained for a while.

Whenever I leave the EU I always have to go through passport control at my EU departure airport.

Why import stuff? British apples infested with British maggots because they've been picked too late by British formerly lazy welfare buns are delicious. You don't need no stinkin' Dutch tomatoes or Danish pork or German eggs or French wine. And in order to distribute evenly what you do produce, the Royal Mint (or whoever does that) surely still has the originals of the rationing coupons from the 1940s.

Even if we accept lower quality food and rationing, supply chains these days are so closely integrated internationally that domestic industries will suffer very badly.

Wait, where do you plan to put the customs? Do you plan to put the customs around London and make the whole M25 into the queue? Better then also block all the junctions. Why not simply turn Dover Castle into a carpark?

It's not really my job to work out where the customs should be but they're usually at the point of departure - hence the need for Operation Stack. Your suggestion that the customs be in London is quite frankly nonsensical because there'd need to be another check at the border. Similarly the idea of blocking M25 junctions.

The appropriate steps are however outlined in the BBC article.

BTW, the name of that "Operation Stack" is highly misleading. In computing science, a "stack" is a data structure where you "push" a new element onto the stack and "pop" the last pushed element off the stack (and you have no way of removing the oldest element off the stack). I don't think it worked that way. A queue is a list where you (only) can remove the first added element.

Then complain to to Kent Police and Highways England about their branding

There are other types of stack out there though.

 

[Tolls]

Wait, where do you plan to put the customs? Do you plan to put the customs around London and make the whole M25 into the queue? Better then also block all the junctions. Why not simply turn Dover Castle into a carpark?

The lorries still need to be checked on the way out.
After all, don't want any disenchanted Brits sneaking out in the back of them...that won't make Brexit look the success we all know it will be!

 

[ddt]

Only if you believe that the vehicles are empty when they leave. They will also presumably still be subject to security checks.

It's estimated that the workload for customs will increase sixfold as a result of leaving the EU so unless exports to the EU fall to a tiny fraction of their current level then there'll still be issues.

Not even the archest Remainer has suggested that exports to the EU will drop by more than 80%

Fair enough. But if come April 2019 there aren't enough customs facilities, it will come to a temporary standstill.

I have.

The worst was leaving the US when BA had failed to record my arrival properly six weeks previously. I was detained for a while.

Wow. I wasn't even detained when I was caught smuggling stuff into the GDR.

Whenever I leave the EU I always have to go through passport control at my EU departure airport.

Fair enough, I've even had passport checks inside Schengen on flights.

It's not really my job to work out where the customs should be but they're usually at the point of departure - hence the need for Operation Stack. Your suggestion that the customs be in London is quite frankly nonsensical because there'd need to be another check at the border. Similarly the idea of blocking M25 junctions.

The appropriate steps are however outlined in the BBC article.

It wasn't clear from the article, and I frankly thought customs were primarily on entry, to impose import duties. Operation Stack, according to the wiki page, is mainly due to problems getting the lorries out of the country: no ferries due to bad weather, electrical failure in the Chunnel or French strikes.

 

[The Don]

Fair enough. But if come April 2019 there aren't enough customs facilities, it will come to a temporary standstill.

Yes, which will result in traffic building up both sides of the Channel triggering operation Stack on the UK side

It wasn't clear from the article, and I frankly thought customs were primarily on entry, to impose import duties. Operation Stack, according to the wiki page, is mainly due to problems getting the lorries out of the country: no ferries due to bad weather, electrical failure in the Chunnel or French strikes.

They may be primarily on entry but there are still checks in exit.

Operation Stack is currently primarily used for reasons you mention - if Dover Customs grind to a halt then it'll be another reason to trigger Operation Stack.

 

[jimbob]

Operation Stack is going to be a permanent fixture on the M20.

Why do you think that?

Not exporting anything would reduce that,

 

[Information Analyst]

I presume you meant UK there. But I agree with your points.

Gah...!

 

[Information Analyst]

And at the time of the Scottish Indyref, and the campaign, Cameron had already publicly pledged that it would get into the election manifesto.

Yes, in contrast to Labour ruling it out as early as 2010 and maintaining that line subsequently.

Eyeballing that graph, the two trend lines intersect at week 17 in 2014, i.e., end of April (I think each fine grey line stands for two weeks). Even at its best, mid-2015, Remain was at 45% and Leave at 38%. Given the wild variation in polling outcomes, that's firmly within the margin of error. You shouldn't oversell this point. Remain never seemed a done deal, and specifically when you look at the polls in Q2 of 2014 - i.e., at the time of the Indyref campaign - you see several poll outcomes where Leave won. That certainly doesn't say "no is never gonna happen".

Sure, but overall Remain still looked more likely than a Leave vote - certainly more than AGG is claiming in retrospect.

Actually, that point has been hugely oversold. The Spanish PM was also on record that he would not be the spoilsport for a Scottish accession, a fact that the British press didn't publish.

Which doesn't alter the fact that an independent Scotland would still have to apply to joint the EU.

Fair enough about (a), Labour was in the lead at the time. But you're overselling the trend in Brexit polling which was not that convincing. I count in that graph at least 5 individual polls in the months before the Indyref where Leave outpolled Remain.

Perhaps, but AGG's claim that Brexit was effectively a certainty at the time of the Scottish referendum is overselling in the opposite direction.

 

[ddt]

Sure, but overall Remain still looked more likely than a Leave vote - certainly more than AGG is claiming in retrospect.

I haven't closely looked at what AGG claimed, but yes, Remain looked more likely - but only slightly.

Which doesn't alter the fact that an independent Scotland would still have to apply to joint the EU.

Yes. But given that Scotland was already part of the UK and thus the EU, the whole time-consuming process of complying with the 'acquis' that other countries had to go through would not apply and it would essentially boil down to a political vote from the existing EU members. That could easily be resolved within the timeframe that the Scottish independence itself would take. In case of a vote in favour of independence, Scottish admission to the EU would be much, much less complicated matter than untangling the UK inheritance between Scotland and rest-UK.

Perhaps, but AGG's claim that Brexit was effectively a certainty at the time of the Scottish referendum is overselling in the opposite direction.

I agree.

As I remember from the time, the Better Together campaign claimed that the only way for Scotland to remain within the EU was to remain within the UK. And given all of the above, that certainly was also huge overselling.

 

[ceptimus]

Cameron promised a referendum if a Tory government was elected, but at the time most pundits were predicting no overall majority for any party. Cameron most likely thought he would never have to deliver on his promise.

 

[The Don]

Why do you think that?

Not exporting anything would reduce that,

True, but I don't think any mainstream pundit has suggested that UK exports would drop by anything like the margin required that the existing Customs arrangements could cope if workload increases sixfold - or indeed ceases altogether.

If it did then the UK economy is broken

 

[The Don]

Cameron promised a referendum if a Tory government was elected, but at the time most pundits were predicting no overall majority for any party. Cameron most likely thought he would never have to deliver on his promise.

Given that both Conservatives and LibDems were promising a referendum, that would only work if he thought that The Labour Party, under Ed Miliband and with a small but active (and willing to rebel) anti-EU group won a large enough majority to both form a government and withstand the rebels on a referendum vote - unlikely IMO.

My view is that David Cameron thought that there would be a referendum, that because the three major parties' official policy was Remain, and, because in his opinion, the risks of Brexit were huge and the benefits unclear there would be a handy victory for Remain, the Eurosceptic wing of the Conservative Party would be put back in their box and that UKIP would return to being a "swivel-eyed loon" fringe party.

Of course it didn't quite turn out that way and instead we're in a situation where, with excellent negotiation and skillful leadership we may just end up only a bit worse off than we would be in the EU - but sadly that appears to be entirely absent.

 

[GlennB]

Meanwhile I see that Boris has been required to accompany May back to the UK from New York on the PM's plane, rather than make his own way. Hmmmm ... several hours of interesting conversation in mid-Atlantic?

I wonder if he'll be put on the 'naughty table' (i.e. reshuffled) soon? I'd half expect his resignation if that happens, which might be his plan anyway.

 

[MikeG]

.......Yes. But given that Scotland was already part of the UK and thus the EU, the whole time-consuming process of complying with the 'acquis' that other countries had to go through would not apply and it would essentially boil down to a political vote from the existing EU members. That could easily be resolved...........

No, it could not. It would require unanimity, and Spain have already said they would block such a move. They wouldn't want to encourage their own regions separatist ambitions* by backing separatist movements in other nations.

*The Catalan parliament has just voted for an independence referendum. The Basque region wants independence. So do a number of other areas.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Perhaps, but AGG's claim that Brexit was effectively a certainty at the time of the Scottish referendum is overselling in the opposite direction.

Repeating a lie doesn't make it true. Where have I said that?

 

[Information Analyst]

The lorries still need to be checked on the way out.
After all, don't want any disenchanted Brits sneaking out in the back of them...that won't make Brexit look the success we all know it will be!

Funnily enough, only recently has there been a DVD release of the 1978-79 BBC series 1990, set in a totalitarian near-future where the unions and the state bureaucracy have taken over, with Soviet-like food shortages, luxuries rations for the chosen few, a thriving black market, most newspapers under state control, and a Public Control Department to do the obvious with the population. A major plotline follows crusading journalist smuggling people out, "illegal emigration" being a major problem. When the series was originally broadcast, out it seemed like a right-wing horror fantasy....