Proof of Immortality, VI

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- Again, what if we can someday save sperm cells and ova by freezing them (or, whatever) and create a baby by combining them. Would the planned combination represent (in a meaningful way) a real, and new person/self?

We can do this now, and each such possible person has a non-zero likelihood of existing if someone actually froze this sperm and eggs. The likelihood of each possible person existing would depend on many variables, including but not limited to the success rates of various methods of in vitro fertilization.

One thing it would not depend on is the number of people who could possibly exist over all time
 
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Oh yeah, I keep thinking that going 60 mph is a process of the Volkswagen rather than a separate entity that occupies the Volkswagen.

My mistake.

There is a denominator of infinite potential going 60mph, so each actual going 60 MPH approaches zero, so ........immortality.
 
A sperm has a greater chance of contributing to a sticky pile of tissues under a teenager's bed than of becoming a human being. Yet under Jabba's mathematics it still has a negligible chance of doing even that, because of his comedy of combinatorics. The denominator Jabba envisions is still "yuge," and we would have to consider the probability of being deposited in that exact tissue on that exact day, not just in some tissue on some day in order to maintain the equivalence. For the purposes of analysis, a tissue is no different than an ovum. Yet those piles exist, and possibly in greater numbers than Volkswagens despite the astronomically small chance any one sperm has of participating in some youngster's specific hormonal release. No matter whether they're about sperm, Volkswagens, or lottery tickets, all of Jabba's arguments require the Texas sharpshooter fallacy. They all require an ad hoc assignment of significance after the fact.
 
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- Put aside the word "potential" for the moment. Would you agree that every combination of human sperm cell that has ever existed and human ovum that has ever existed represent different human selves?

No. Do you claim otherwise?
 
We could try using Bayesian inference to decide whether the "new evidence" is likely to be reliable.

If, as Jabba claims, the likelihood of his existence includes a factor of one over infinity, then it is infinitely more likely that any apparent observation of Jabba's existence is a false positive than a reliable observation. So while Jabba may think he exists, he can be pretty sure that he is mistaken. It's infinitely more likely that he is in fact someone else.
 
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We could try using Bayesian inference to decide whether the "new evidence" is likely to be reliable.

If, as Jabba claims, the likelihood of his existence includes a factor of one over infinity, then it is infinitely more likely that any apparent observation of Jabba's existence is a false positive than a reliable observation. So while Jabba may think he exists, he can be pretty sure that he is mistaken. It's infinitely more likely that he is in fact someone else.


Or is, in fact, a Volkswagen.
 
We could try using Bayesian inference to decide whether the "new evidence" is likely to be reliable.

If, as Jabba claims, the likelihood of his existence includes a factor of one over infinity, then it is infinitely more likely that any apparent observation of Jabba's existence is a false positive than a reliable observation. So while Jabba may think he exists, he can be pretty sure that he is mistaken. It's infinitely more likely that he is in fact someone else.

Humorous as that is, it isn't Bayesian. To be Bayesian, you'd have to compare the probability that we would "apparently observe" Jabba given that it was Jabba with the probability we would "apparently observe" Jabba given that it wasn't Jabba.
 
.. a sextillion sperm cells ..
.. combinations of sperm cells...
...human sperm cell

..of sperm cell from ...

..save sperm cells ..

... greater chance of contributing to a sticky pile of tissues under a teenager's bed ...

All this philosophy is confusing me and now I'm lost. Is the targetness of that 60 Mph VolksWagen higher or lower of the teenager's waxx? Does it depend on the former's vs the latter's speed? Jabba, are they both immortal? Jabba, does the mathematic of the proof account for oligospermia?
 
Dave,
- If we were able to freeze one of your sperm cells, and later unfreeze it without killing it, and then combine it with one of Madonna's ovum, shouldn't that produce a new and different person/self -- someone who otherwise wouldn't have had a chance?
- What if we saved your sperm cell for 100 years and combined it with an ovum from a, then, 30 year old woman?

What if we did? What does that have to do with anything?
- That would produce a real, and different, person/self that otherwise, never had a chance. In other words, those two combinations of sperm cell and ovum do represent two real persons/selves that currently don't have a chance of ever existing. No one will ever know those 'potential' selves.
 
- That would produce a real, and different, person/self that otherwise, never had a chance. In other words, those two combinations of sperm cell and ovum do represent two real persons/selves that currently don't have a chance of ever existing. No one will ever know those 'potential' selves.

Does every particle of wood in the side of the barn represent a potential target?
 
- That would produce a real, and different, person/self that otherwise, never had a chance. In other words, those two combinations of sperm cell and ovum do represent two real persons/selves that currently don't have a chance of ever existing. No one will ever know those 'potential' selves.
And?

When are going to address the fatal flaws in your argument listed by JayUtah?
 
- What if we saved your sperm cell for 100 years and combined it with an ovum from a, then, 30 year old woman?


How does that saying go? "If wishes were horses, your argument would still be nonsense."
 
- That would produce a real, and different, person/self that otherwise, never had a chance. In other words, those two combinations of sperm cell and ovum do represent two real persons/selves that currently don't have a chance of ever existing. No one will ever know those 'potential' selves.
A sperm and ovum combining is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a person/self arising.

Your self is not like your eye colour, something that boils down to simple genetics. It is an ongoing process arising from a whole range of conditions, including your genetics and your experiences.

You seem to think that a sperm cell combining with an ovum is, in itself, both necessary and sufficient to give rise to (and represents, whatever that means) a single unique sense of self and that nothing else is relevant.

A sperm cell and an ovum combining might never give rise to a person with a sense of self at all (in fact, I think that most don't) and a given sperm cell combining with a given ovum can give rise to person whose sense of self can be infinitely varied depending on their experiences, which are dependent on an unimaginably huge number of factors that we don't need to go into the details of.

But you seem to think that any unique sequence of genes, in and of itself, 'represents' (I'm putting that in quote marks because I'm really not sure what you mean by it) a single unique sense of self. It doesn't work like that. How could you even think it does? Have you not been listening to anything anybody has said about the sense of self and have you not learned anything from what you've read in this thread?

Moreover, you seem hellbent on debating these tangential minutiae while ignoring the problems with the meat of your argument. What has any of this got to to with anything? It's almost like you're deliberately trying to bore your opponents to death by arguing these pointless issues. None of this is helping your case at all.
 
- That would produce a real, and different, person/self that otherwise, never had a chance. In other words, those two combinations of sperm cell and ovum do represent two real persons/selves that currently don't have a chance of ever existing. No one will ever know those 'potential' selves.

And what does that have to do with anything?
 
And what does that have to do with anything?


If he can sneak the expression "person/self" into his argument without anyone noticing, he can equivocate between a conscious person and a person with a body and an independently existing soul.
 
If he can sneak the expression "person/self" into his argument without anyone noticing, he can equivocate between a conscious person and a person with a body and an independently existing soul.
I think he's trying to equivocate between a real person and an imaginary person, e.g. a potential person with a potential self represented by a hypothetical pairing of Cleopatra's frozen ovum pairing with a modern person's sperm.

Because something something. It's not always clear to me what Jabba is arguing and why. I think he deliberately obfuscates what he's getting at.
 
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