Brexit: Now What? Part III

[MikeG]

Any upside the demise of UKIP brought was overwhelmed by the downside of the British embrace of Donald Trump.

What embrace? You just spout stuff out that you want to be true, without any regard to whether it is actually true. Any putative "embrace of Donald Trump" (which hasn't happened) could have no impact in UK general elections. You don't get the choice of voting "Trump" or "Republican" in our elections. You do get the option of voting Ukip. Your hyperbole is overcoming your critical thinking.

UKIP didn't disappear,

Just about.

it went mainstream in the form of the Conservative party..........

From whence it came in the first place.

 

[McHrozni]

What embrace?

They seem quite cozy to me.

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/11/14/11/3A5CA1C000000578-0-image-a-13_1479121767057.jpg

Any putative "embrace of Donald Trump" (which hasn't happened) could have no impact in UK general elections. You don't get the choice of voting "Trump" or "Republican" in our elections. You do get the option of voting Ukip. Your hyperbole is overcoming your critical thinking.

They didn't get those options in France either, yet they chose to go with the candidate who behaved like this:

https://www.thestar.com/content/dam...on/handshake.jpg.size.custom.crop.881x650.jpg

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2017...Belgium_s_King_Philipe_-a-1_1496065761063.jpg

Mocking Trump became a vote-winner in Europe at the same time as his fans in UKIP dropped in polls like a stone. It's indicative their fall was about far more than just Brexit.

From whence it came in the first place.

Exactly. They were an extremist wing of Conservatives who were unacceptable to mainstream Conservative party. They disappeared because they became the mainstream.

That's not a defeat at all. The defeat came from the overall drop on the support for Conservatives, despite their opposition being labelled as undetectable.

McHrozni

 

[MikeG]

Mail Star Mail. I'm not even going to click the links.

Do you have any proper sources, or any proper arguments?

 

[McHrozni]

Mail Star Mail. I'm not even going to click the links.

Do you have any proper sources, or any proper arguments?

The links are to photographs, not articles. Unless you think they doctored them they're quite proper sources.

McHrozni

 

[Tolls]

Exactly. They were an extremist wing of Conservatives who were unacceptable to mainstream Conservative party.

They weren't "unacceptable". The party was formed because they felt they weren't being heard inside the party. It was a glorified pressure group.

Beyond Brexit itself I doubt any of the other aspects normally associated with UKIP will appear more prevalent in the Tory party than prior to last years vote.

 

[ddt]

A drop from pole position at 25% to 21% and voters breaking 2-1 for the other guy when you're supposed to be competitive is hammered by any definition.

This conveniently described the Netherlands and France both.

Wilders had been yoyo-ing in the polls throughout the whole legislature period. There was a small drop during the campaign, but I think that was largely due to (a) Wilders hardly campaigning at all, (b) his one-page election manifesto (yes really), and maybe (c) Erdogan's last-minute help for all democratic parties. In France, don't you think it's worrying that 40% votes for Le Pen and not, like with her father, everybody not die-hard FN supporter vote for the other guy?

In Austria, a rerun of the presidential election saw mr. Hofer win fewer votes despite a higher turnout, he went from being less than a percentage point behind to losing by more than 8 points.
That's also hammered.

Hardly. For the position of a ceremonial president with reserve powers, still 46% of the people voted for the fascist who openly said he wanted to try out how far he could go in (ab)using those reserve powers.

 

[The Don]

Exactly. They were an extremist wing of Conservatives who were unacceptable to mainstream Conservative party. They disappeared because they became the mainstream.

Exactly the point I was trying to make up-thread. Any suggestion that one of the benefits of Brexit is the demise of UKIP misses the point. While UKIP was riding high in the polls, the "swivel-eyed loons" were at least corralled in a party which was politically impotent in Westminster and marginal at a local level. Now the UKIPpers have largely returned to the political fold in the Conservative Party, the policies they were proposing will become part of the political mainstream - IMO not a cause for celebration.

That's not to say that the demise of UKIP wouldn't be a good thing if the xenophobic and racist opinions which drove its popularity were gone. The trouble is that they're still there and are now heavily influencing the party in government.

 

[McHrozni]

Wilders had been yoyo-ing in the polls throughout the whole legislature period. There was a small drop during the campaign, but I think that was largely due to (a) Wilders hardly campaigning at all, (b) his one-page election manifesto (yes really), and maybe (c) Erdogan's last-minute help for all democratic parties. In France, don't you think it's worrying that 40% votes for Le Pen and not, like with her father, everybody not die-hard FN supporter vote for the other guy?

Don't get me wrong, of course it's worrying. However all of these represent drops from their polling highs and drops from victories of right-wing populism in USA and UK - and Poland, Hungary, Russia, Turkey and elsewhere in the previous years.

The argument I'm attacking is not that right-wing populism is dead and buried, it's that Brexit and Brexit alone is what brought about the demise of UKIP. The situation is far more complicated than that, at a minimum Trump also helped.

Hardly. For the position of a ceremonial president with reserve powers, still 46% of the people voted for the fascist who openly said he wanted to try out how far he could go in (ab)using those reserve powers.

Six months earlier 49.7% voted for him. He received fewer votes amidst a higher turnout in the rerun of the election. His drop was deeper than the drop of UKIP and I sincerely doubt the drop of Hofer was due to Brexit and not Trump.

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

They weren't "unacceptable". The party was formed because they felt they weren't being heard inside the party.

That's what I meant with "unacceptable". Their views were not acceptable to form the basis for the party policy.

McHrozni

 

[ddt]

Maybe, but Austrian president is not a strong ruler of the executive branch like in USA or France, but a national mascot, like the Queen of England.

Pages 44-45.
https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Austria_2009.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Austria

The less importance a position has, the more likely it is for the electorate to opt for wilder options, because there is much less to lose. If Austria had a presidential system this result would indeed be scary. The way the country works however it is much less scary. The problematic party - FPÖ - declined in polls by about 10% in the past couple of months. The election is due in fall.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Austrian_legislative_election,_2017

We crossposted, but it bears repeating. Yes, you're right about the position of the Austrian president, but the fascist Hofer openly said during his campaign that he would use the reserve powers he'd have as president as far as possible. I think that's scary.

Those opinion polls for the legislative elections are a bit reassuring, but I certainly wouldn't call this hammering. Not until the FPÓ is back safe in single digits.

And let's not forget, we are talking here about the country where Hitler was born and raised.

 

[3point14]

As an aside, one of the biggest upsides of the Brexit process so far is the demise of Ukip. Hopefully most of us can at least agree on that.

Not really, no.

 

[McHrozni]

We crossposted, but it bears repeating. Yes, you're right about the position of the Austrian president, but the fascist Hofer openly said during his campaign that he would use the reserve powers he'd have as president as far as possible. I think that's scary.

Yes, but he claimed that before the 2016 as well. It wasn't a new claim he made for the 2017 re-run of the election. I'm not saying the results are good by any stretch of the imagination, I'm saying Brexit doesn't explain the drop of far-right populism all that well. Trump does. UKIP is a part of that.

Those opinion polls for the legislative elections are a bit reassuring, but I certainly wouldn't call this hammering. Not until the FPÓ is back safe in single digits.

Yeh, semantics
It's a significant drop, if it's hammering or not is debatable.

And let's not forget, we are talking here about the country where Hitler was born and raised.

The country where Hitler was born and raised was far larger and a major European power. The country now doesn't even encompass all of the lands called Austria in that state.

http://www.zum.de/whkmla/histatlas/germany/ahreg.gif

McHrozni

 

[ddt]

Yes, but he claimed that before the 2016 as well. It wasn't a new claim he made for the 2017 re-run of the election.

[ nitpick ] The (postponed) rerun of the runoff was still in 2016, 4 December. It was postponed from 2 October because of faulty glue on the envelopes with which ballots were mailed or some such.
Austrian word of the year:
Bundespräsidentenstichwahlwiederholungsverschiebung
(federal presidential election runoff re-run postponement).

ETA: is it my browser or the forum software that keeps splitting up that word???

No, it wasn't a new claim. He made it during the campaigning for the first round. But the claim itself should invalidate him with the large majority of the population.

I'm not saying the results are good by any stretch of the imagination, I'm saying Brexit doesn't explain the drop of far-right populism all that well. Trump does. UKIP is a part of that.

As the two processes (Trump and Brexit) are largely coincidental, it's hard to give an explanation which of them induces voters not to vote for brownshirts.

Yeh, semantics
It's a significant drop, if it's hammering or not is debatable.

I'd say it seems like the rise of "far-right populism" (I prefer to plainly call it fascism) is checked, but we need to wait to see if that bears out.

The country where Hitler was born and raised was far larger and a major European power. The country now doesn't even encompass all of the lands called Austria in that state.

Yes I know. Must I rephrase that more explicitly?

Austria, as a country on the whole, was a willing accomplice in Hitler's evil designs. Austrians were happy about the Anschluss. 13% of the SS personnel were Austrians, whereas they were only 8% of the population. Kaltenbrunner, head of the RSHA, and Seyss-Inquart, head of the occupied Netherlands, were Austrians, to name a few. After WW2, Austrian politics has tried to shove their shameful history under the table and tried to paint themselves as Hitler's first victim instead of willing accomplice. They've actively sabotaged Allied efforts at denazification in 1945-1954. And finally, the FPÖ was founded as a refuge for ex-Nazis to be politically active.

 

[McHrozni]

No, it wasn't a new claim. He made it during the campaigning for the first round. But the claim itself should invalidate him with the large majority of the population.

Oh, I agree. It didn't though.

As the two processes (Trump and Brexit) are largely coincidental, it's hard to give an explanation which of them induces voters not to vote for brownshirts.

By coincidental you mean they occurred at the same time, right?
It's hard to say, but Trump explains the effects outside of UK more easily than Brexit. That said, the claim I was attacking was that UKIP fell due to Brexit alone, by a guy who allegedly demands firm evidence on everything.

I'd say it seems like the rise of "far-right populism" (I prefer to plainly call it fascism) is checked, but we need to wait to see if that bears out.

Not all far-right populists are fascists. Fascist represent the competent far-right populists, not all far-right populists are also competent.

Austria, as a country on the whole, was a willing accomplice in Hitler's evil designs. Austrians were happy about the Anschluss. 13% of the SS personnel were Austrians, whereas they were only 8% of the population. Kaltenbrunner, head of the RSHA, and Seyss-Inquart, head of the occupied Netherlands, were Austrians, to name a few. After WW2, Austrian politics has tried to shove their shameful history under the table and tried to paint themselves as Hitler's first victim instead of willing accomplice. They've actively sabotaged Allied efforts at denazification in 1945-1954. And finally, the FPÖ was founded as a refuge for ex-Nazis to be politically active.

Yeah, no arguments there, but you just explained the mechanism that allowed mr. Hofer to rise to over 40% of the vote in the first place. The same kind of people have far more trouble with Germany, which did go through denazification.

Worrying? Yes. Surprising? Not one bit. Austria is not the only such country either, Hungary was a willing ally of Nazi Germany too, they just weren't annexed, being non-Germanic and all. Look at them now, a moderately fascist party at around 50% of the vote, a hard-core fascist party second at 20%, competing with a sane party for second place. Up to 70% of Hungarians support either Fidesz or someone even worse. And that's for the legislature, where the results matter a hundred times more than for a national mascot.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Hungarian_parliamentary_election

And you thought Austria was bad?

McHrozni

 

[MikeG]

.......victories of right-wing populism in ...UK.........

We haven't had any of those, unless you go back to the 2014 Euro elections.

 

[MikeG]

Not really, no.

Interesting that you'd admit to not being pleased at the demise of Ukip. Noted.

 

[McHrozni]

We haven't had any of those, unless you go back to the 2014 Euro elections.

Brexit?

McHrozni

 

[3point14]

Interesting that you'd admit to not being pleased at the demise of Ukip. Noted.

Note away.


It's like saying you're glad the fire has gone out when you're standing in the smoldering ashes of what remains of your house.

 

[MikeG]

The only logical conclusion from your line of argument is that you'd rather Ukip was still thriving (given that you can't wish they had never happened in the first place).

 

[MikeG]

Brexit?.........

Don't be ridiculous.