UK General Election

[Information Analyst]

Not so. Thatcher called a snap election in '83 after the Falklands War. Interestingly, she actually only gave 4 weeks notice of the election date.

Depending on your definition of "snap election", it could be said that Blair's second election victory in 2001, which was a year short of a full term, might fall into that category.

It's not my definition - it's being reported now as being the first snap election since 1974:

"The last snap election was in October 1974. It came just eight months after the previous vote which had resulted in a hung parliament, and gave the Labour Party a slim majority of 3 seats." (Express)

1983 and 2001 don't seem to be counted as snap elections, although obviously they were "early."

 

[Tolls]

Not so. Thatcher called a snap election in '83 after the Falklands War. Interestingly, she actually only gave 4 weeks notice of the election date.

Depending on your definition of "snap election", it could be said that Blair's second election victory in 2001, which was a year short of a full term, might fall into that category.

Which really does need defining.
What exactly is a snap election, in a system where the government (until recently) was able to decide when to hold one, within the five year limit?

Wiki seems to go for less than four years, but that just sounds made up to me.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I suspect that May is counting on the SNP losing seats, rather than gaining them.

Probably, but to what end? She already thinks its OK to ignore Scotland and her supporters agree with her.

That position will not be changed by a few extra non-SNP MPs in Scotland, nor will it be legitimized in the eyes of those who disagree with her.

 

[MikeG]

Which really does need defining.
What exactly is a snap election, in a system where the government (until recently) was able to decide when to hold one, within the five year limit?

Wiki seems to go for less than four years, but that just sounds made up to me.

Almost as made up as the Express definition, in IA's link, which seems to be 3 years. Seems like it is a meaningless term. Or it may be more about the notice period between calling the election and the date on which voting occurs.

 

[Information Analyst]

Probably, but to what end? She already thinks its OK to ignore Scotland and her supporters agree with her.

That position will not be changed by a few extra non-SNP MPs in Scotland, nor will it be legitimized in the eyes of those who disagree with her.

As others have suggested, she'd probably counting on those who don't want another independence referendum swinging the vote away from the SNP. I'm not convinced myself that that is what will happen, but I think it's May's own thinking.

 

[Craig B]

I suspect that May is counting on the SNP losing seats, rather than gaining them.

as fast as Westminster is concerned there's almost nothing the SNP haven't gained already.

They must do less well, on basis of regression to the mean after the previous unprecedented wipeout of the other parties. The preceding local government election results will be fascinating.

 

[Information Analyst]

Almost as made up as the Express definition, in IA's link, which seems to be 3 years. Seems like it is a meaningless term. Or it may be more about the notice period between calling the election and the date on which voting occurs.

Well, since 1974 the time during between GEs has ranged between 4 years and 2 days (1983/1987) and 5 years and 28 days (1992/1997). The sole exception was 2001/2005 at 4 years and 11 months, but there's still a big difference between that and the 2 years and 1 month we're facing now.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

As others have suggested, she'd probably counting on those who don't want another independence referendum swinging the vote away from the SNP. I'm not convinced myself that that is what will happen, but I think it's May's own thinking.

I'm not disputing that she might think that or that it might even happen, I'm just wondering what it would be supposed to prove or win her?

Lets take the best dream case for her and say the Tories get a dozen seats in Scotland. So what? She can preach to the converted that it is important?

Turn that on its head and say the Lib Dems get a surge on the back of Brexit and get 15% of the vote. Would that prove that the Tories should abandon their plans to leave the EU?

 

[3point14]

Turn that on its head and say the Lib Dems get a surge on the back of Brexit and get 15% of the vote. Would that prove that the Tories should abandon their plans to leave the EU?

I'm futilely hoping for this.

I do think there will be a massive increase in turnout over the last election due to the UK leaving the EU and I suspect that the Libdems will return more seats than they have. How many more is the question.

 

[MikeG]

......I suspect that the Libdems will return more seats than they have. How many more is the question.

Lifelong (until the last election) Lib and LibDem voter here......

They could double or triple their MP's and still be an irrelevance. In fact, unless they get 40 or 50 MPs they'll remain an irrelevance. I suspect that most of the seats they pick up will be from Labour, although Bath might be interesting for them (a Tory seat).

 

[MikeG]

.......They must do less well, on basis of regression to the mean after the previous unprecedented wipeout of the other parties.........

I would be interested in your speculation as to the Scottish situation if the SNP lose a few seats, the Conservatives include not granting another indyref as party policy in their manifesto, and then go on to a large election victory. I know this is 3 hypotheticals, but I suspect there is a strong chance for all three.

 

[Tolls]

Lifelong (until the last election) Lib and LibDem voter here......

They could double or triple their MP's and still be an irrelevance. In fact, unless they get 40 or 50 MPs they'll remain an irrelevance. I suspect that most of the seats they pick up will be from Labour, although Bath might be interesting for them (a Tory seat).

Depends on how they play the West Country I would have thought.
Not that that's a huge number of seats, but it's mostly Tory now (isn't it?).

But yes. I've said before that 20 seats would be a good showing. Expecting much more than that is something of a pipe dream.

 

[MikeG]

Depends on how they play the West Country I would have thought.......

I'm really not sure it's going to be in their hands. I also don't think they'll get away with the old trick of being everything to everyone, either.......saying X in one constituency and the complete polar opposite in another. Being avid Remainers isn't going to help them with a bunch of retired people in Devon, Cornwall and Dorset.......and Farron really doesn't have any gravitas at all. At least old Paddy could wrinkle his forehead and appear deep and thoughtful.

 

[DreadNiK]

things like this don't help http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...rvatives-tories-refuse-rule-out-a7691221.html

he's a pretty crap leader tbh

 

[MikeG]

Well, he's an evangelical christian, for a start, getting himself baptised at the age of 21. That's why the question he was asked about being gay being sinful was so interesting. I reckon if you dig into it you might find that he thinks that being gay is OK, being in a gay marriage is OK, but that gay sex is sinful.

No Lib Dem leader can afford to rule out a coalition with anyone.

 

[ddt]

As others have suggested, she'd probably counting on those who don't want another independence referendum swinging the vote away from the SNP. I'm not convinced myself that that is what will happen, but I think it's May's own thinking.

When you consider the results per constituency in 2015, there was only one seat (Berwickshire) where the SNP won with a small margin (less than 1,000 votes), while the Tory seat (Dumfriesshire) was also marginal and the LibDem seat (Orkneys&Shetlands) as well. And in the 2016 Scottish Parliament elections, the SNP only solidified its support. Seeing that go away seems wishful thinking.

 

[ddt]

"Don't you think she looks tired...?"

I thought the Private Eye expression was "tired and emotional"?

 

[DreadNiK]

Well, he's an evangelical christian, for a start, getting himself baptised at the age of 21. That's why the question he was asked about being gay being sinful was so interesting. I reckon if you dig into it you might find that he thinks that being gay is OK, being in a gay marriage is OK, but that gay sex is sinful.

yes so another big strike against him in my view, he's a religious nut

No Lib Dem leader can afford to rule out a coalition with anyone.

pff. this used to be the case. no longer. I predict he will be forced to rule it out during the campaign. the question can be reworded as 'do you rule out doing what clegg did last time that ended up crippling the party's support with no guarantee of resurrection in this election?'

they need to do everything they can to get the remain vote to become their electoral vote. although we may actually end up in civil war if they by some miracle won (would/could they even stand for enough seats to make that theoretically possible?) and derailed brexit

 

[ddt]

We will rebuild public services and expand democratic participation, put the public back into our economy, give people a real say in their local communities, and increase local and regional democracy.

This implies means worker management for enterprises (which worked 'splendidly' for Yugoslavia), or is devoid of all meaning.

Or you could look at the German model of co-determination in enterprises. Having work councils that appoint a number of members in the board, and that have to sign off on reorganisations and mass lay-offs and the social plans that accompany it.

ETA: as to those plans for building more (council) houses, I agree with what others have reacted to you on this.

 

[DreadNiK]

Lifelong (until the last election) Lib and LibDem voter here......

presumably the 'until the last election' part was the result of the coalition? I was the same (although I've not had that many votes in a general in my lifetime yet) and had to spoil my ballot - this is why it must be ruled out