LL,
- Which of the following do you disagree with?
Jabba - I am very happy to answer you.
1. If I have only one finite life (at most), my current existence is extremely unlikely.
I've never really agreed with this. As far as I know, we live in a clockwork universe where everything that happens is a necessary consequence of its starting conditions. If that's the case, then the chance that you'd exist would be 100%.
Assuming we live in a somewhat randomized universe, I don't know the chance that you personally would exist right at this moment. But I'm not sure it matters. Any sentient lifeform at any time in the life of the universe might question the durability of its sense of self. And that lifeform at that time would find the chance that it existed right then to be very small. So I think the proper likelihood is whether any sentient life would exist anywhere at any time in the life of the universe. I don't know how to calculate those odds. The universe may be crowded with life, in which case the odds are very, very good.
2. That being the case, my current existence is evidence that I have more than one finite life.
No, I'm sorry. I do not agree with this. The only evidence we have is that you exist now. We have absolutely zero evidence that it is even possible to have more than one life, for a soul to switch bodies, or for anything of the individual to survive death. In fact, all the evidence we have indicates that processes of a working brain create the illusion of a self in order to integrate sensory data in a manner that allows the organism to survive. We can change the way someone thinks, remembers, even acts. We can change the way a person tastes things. We can shoot a tamping rod through their skull and make them addicted to gambling.
I think that you have the positive responsibility to define exactly what a durable, unchanging soul is - is it memories? loves? hates? What exactly is it? What are its characteristics? If I die right now, what exactly does my soul take with it? What if I'd died 20 years ago? Would it be the same?
You then need to show that the thing can survive death. Evidence of that should be inconsistent with any other interpretation.
3. The most likely conclusion of my current existence is that I always exist.
Oh for the love of Anne Hathaway's Oscar, no. This is the fallacy of the excluded middle. "If the car isn't red, it's most likely blue." There are an infinite number of other explanations:
The soul lives 100,000 years.
The soul lives 100,003 years.
Only the souls of people below the age of 40 reincarnate.
Some people are born without souls.
The soul dies with the body but then is reincarnated on Philip Jose Farmer's
Riverworld.
Female souls live for 60,000,000,000 years while male souls live for 20,673,000 years.
Now you may say to me, "But Loss Leader, once we reason that a soul outlives the body, what mechanism could there be for it to die after a certain number of lives or years or whatever?"
And that's just the point. We have no mechanism for a soul to outlive its present body. As long as we're imagining such a thing could happen, we might as well imagine anything. We're not using evidence. It's just pure faith.