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Super Artificial Intelligence, a naive approach

There is nothing to base a lower bound estimate on. If we knew what needed to be done for intelligence, we could make a guess as to the hardware required, but we don't, so we can't. Maybe it'll be easy. Maybe it won't. We're waiting for scientific understanding to break through the problem, and until it does we can't really say. The only thing I'd venture is that abstracted machine intelligence will probably need synapses the same way planes need feathers.

Also, I'd caution you to be less credulous when you hear people making comparisons between electronics and biology. Just because you hear some knucklehead at IBM claim his system has as many synapses as a cat's brain, don't make it true. Convolutional neural networks do have "neural" in the name, but they absolutely are not "crude approximations of neurons," and anyone who says so is talking out of their ass.

Well, there are two classes of brain based learning:

(1) Deep learning(a) This began by using hints from neuroscience.
(b) However, deep learning benefits from paradigms outside of neuroscience.
(c) This is because deep learning experts don't know enough about the brain, to get much performance.



(2) Computational neuroscience(a) Stricter versions take a path to as closely as possible, attempt to imitate brain neurobiology, unlike Deep Learning. (example is Markram's project)
(b) Mixture of computational neuroscience and deep learning both attempts to imitate the brain, while adapting deep learning tasks completion. (Example IBM)



FOOTNOTE(0):
Both of the above are crude approximations.

  • Deep learning computes on layers of low scale simulated neurons (see 1(c)), and basic synaptic weights that record representations of inputs, for appropriate prediction/classification tasks.
  • Computational neuroscience scales from models that literally strive to achieve brain neurology, to models that leverage deep learning.

Both paradigms yield models that either exceed or equal human performance on some cognitive tasks, and more and more cognitive tasks enter the machine doable domain as time passes.


FOOTNOTE(1):
As I mentioned in original post, and as is observable otherwise, a lower bound for when machines achieves human level cycles per moment is doable.
And I repeat that I don't equate human level intelligence with this probable arrivial in matching cycles per moment par human/machine models.

Artificial consciousness (or whatever human intelligence is) is probably a bit further off, roughly 2025 - 2050.


FOOTNOTE(2):
Anyway, we shall note that these cognitive machines don't need to be conscious to displace jobs.
They are already better disease diagnosis machines, etc, and even machines like these have already began to displace jobs.
 
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ProgrammingGodJordan: Do you know that a computer simulation is not a human being

Inane graphics will not hide ignorance, ProgrammingGodJordan.

Until you understand a basic real world fact there is no point in discussing what could be ignorance or maybe fantasies abut the complex mathematical subject of manifolds.

20 March 2017 ProgrammingGodJordan: Do you know that a computer simulation is not a human being?
However if you took a few seconds to read your sources (or my posts) then you would know that IBM Research Report from 2012 (PDF) also quotes and cites human synapse counts (~10^14) :jaw-dropp!

You started with "The human brain computes roughly 10^16 to 10^18 synaptic operations per second". To compare this with computers you need to convert 10^14 computer synapses using computer operations per second per computer synapse. We will then be able to compare computer sops to human sops.
 
ProgrammingGodJordan: Cite a Moore's law explicitly for computer simulations

Once more, for the calculation of 2020 value,....
Another bit of ignorance that needs to be fixed. Moore's law is a statement about the number of transistors in a manufactured integrated circuit. There are both technological and economic factors governing the law. Some economists think that it is slowing down because of the economic cost of factories using new technologies.

20 March 2017 ProgrammingGodJordan: Cite a Moore's law explicitly for computer simulations.
Alternately: Cite an industry accepted law for the growth of computer simulations.
 
Another bit of ignorance that needs to be fixed. Moore's law is a statement about the number of transistors in a manufactured integrated circuit. There are both technological and economic factors governing the law. Some economists think that it is slowing down because of the economic cost of factories using new technologies.

20 March 2017 ProgrammingGodJordan: Cite a Moore's law explicitly for computer simulations.
Alternately: Cite an industry accepted law for the growth of computer simulations.

My mind does not detect any distinction in the above regard...
 
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@Reality Check

Take a look at Supermanifold Hypothesis (a brief paper of mine regarding artificial neural reinforcement).

This is my entry point into the thought curvature paper.

It is a supermanifold hypothesis based on the manifold hypothesis in Deep Neural Models.

There is sound evidence that representation learning is learning manifolds of the input data, and so it may be worth exploring.

:thumbsup:
 
@Reality Check

Take a look at Supermanifold Hypothesis (a brief paper of mine regarding artificial neural reinforcement).

This is my entry point into the thought curvature paper.

It is a supermanifold hypothesis based on the manifold hypothesis in Deep Neural Models.

There is sound evidence that representation learning is learning manifolds of the input data, and so it may be worth exploring.

:thumbsup:

We can't read your D: drive.
 
This categorization is trivially observed by any being of average intelligence..........

So it is something you just dreamt up. As such, it can be safely ignored. Oh, and I am of well above average intelligence, as are most of the posters here. You might like to bear that in mind when you weasel your way to sneer at us and yet remain within the rules.
 
So it is something you just dreamt up. As such, it can be safely ignored. Oh, and I am of well above average intelligence, as are most of the posters here. You might like to bear that in mind when you weasel your way to sneer at us and yet remain within the rules.

See the deep learning book by Yoshua Bengio et al, for overview of computational neuroscience vs deep learning.
 

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