Brexit: Now What? Part II

[Craig B]

It would be one of those fake wars. Neither country is in much position to do a lot...

I don't know what the Argies have got, but we have BoJo, and we also have Jeremy Clarkson.

 

[asydhouse]

I think the Foreign Office missed a big opportunity there.

They should have told him he would become British Ambassador to the US but that he needed to learn the skills in a similar function in a smaller country. And then appoint him as British Ambassador in the Republic of Fiji or in the Kingdom of Tonga for two or three years (at least).

What?! Give him a paid holiday in the south seas?!

I had in mind somewhere like North Korea, or maybe one of those dictatorships north of Afghanistan.

 

[asydhouse]

...that said. There isn't a country on the planet with which the UK is so disinterested that diplomatic relations could withstand a "Faraging"

Both of your suggestions look a little too "hospitable". I'd suggest somewhere very inhospitable and malarial in Africa - or maybe Australia, they can take a joke and in any case we owe them for Neighbours and Home and Away

Genious!


ETA still too enjoyable for him though. How about Somalia? Do they have a government? or is it still just pirates and Islamists fighting it out for control? Send him in to sort it out!

 

[Tolls]

Inflation is still below the Bank of England target rate of 2%. A year ago the economists were bleating about the threat of deflation.

What's that got to do with the predictions made around Brexit coming true?
We were told that inflation would head up with the massive drop in the pound.
We are now seeing that enter the figures.

We were told "look! See? Where's the predicted inflation?" last month...well, here it is, as predicted.

 

[Craig B]

The more civilised Brexiteers appear to be in denial about the primary issue of importance in the minds of populist adherents of the movement. This is from today's Bloomberg Brexit Bulletin.

Several leading Leave supporters have in the months after the referendum played down the issue of immigration, instead claiming Brexit was much more about sovereignty or other issues – with Conservative MEP Daniel Hannan saying, “If you’re told that ‘Brexit was all about immigration,’ you can be almost certain that you’re talking to a Remain voter.” Welsh Conservative leader Andrew Davies accused “champagne socialists” of using immigration as an “easy excuse” to explain the Brexit vote.​

However, evidence shows that these effete fizz swillers - not the populist "prosecco proletarians" courted by BoJo in his eternal struggle with Johnnie Foreigner - have a correct understanding.

But a groundbreaking analysis by researchers at the University of Sheffield, of almost 3 million tweets over a six-month period, shows that among tens of thousands of Leave’s most vociferous online supporters, immigration vastly outweighed issues such as sovereignty and the NHS.​

 

[McHrozni]

It's quite clear, I think, that UK needs another referendum on what kind of Brexit it wants.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

It's quite clear, I think, that UK needs another referendum on what kind of Brexit it wants.

McHrozni

That would seem to be a good idea but IMO it will never happen.

Theresa May IMO wants out-out-out, doesn't care about the damage that it'll do to the UK and wants to avoid any kind of debate from MPs, much less any kind of involvement from the British public.

She's in a (unfortunately for people who think like me) very strong position to achieve it. Even though the majorty of her MPs were pro-remain, they will likely toe the party line through a combination of party loyalty and fear of (Eurosceptic) constituency associations which gives her a solid majority.

The SNP and Lib Dems can try to fight a rearguard action but unfortunately Her Majesty's loyal opposition is a busted flush and is lead by someone who, despite their protestations to the contrary, appears to want Brexit as well.

A "Hard Brexit" will be waved through on a nod.

The economic damage that will result will be blamed on the EU.

We'll have the death penalty back within my lifetime - within 10 years if Scotland manages to win her independence quickly and remain in the EU.

All the hard won environmental, public and workers' protections will be rolled back and the people who should be protesting the hardest, the working people whose wages and employment protections will be eroded, will be cheering on the necessary steps which allow "Plucky Britain" to compete on the world stage.

 

[The Don]

The more civilised Brexiteers appear to be in denial about the primary issue of importance in the minds of populist adherents of the movement. This is from today's Bloomberg Brexit Bulletin.

Several leading Leave supporters have in the months after the referendum played down the issue of immigration, instead claiming Brexit was much more about sovereignty or other issues – with Conservative MEP Daniel Hannan saying, “If you’re told that ‘Brexit was all about immigration,’ you can be almost certain that you’re talking to a Remain voter.” Welsh Conservative leader Andrew Davies accused “champagne socialists” of using immigration as an “easy excuse” to explain the Brexit vote.​

However, evidence shows that these effete fizz swillers - not the populist "prosecco proletarians" courted by BoJo in his eternal struggle with Johnnie Foreigner - have a correct understanding.

But a groundbreaking analysis by researchers at the University of Sheffield, of almost 3 million tweets over a six-month period, shows that among tens of thousands of Leave’s most vociferous online supporters, immigration vastly outweighed issues such as sovereignty and the NHS.​

Sounds dangerously like facts, collated by "experts" - both of which can be ignored according to the Leave campaign

 

[McHrozni]

That would seem to be a good idea but IMO it will never happen.

Theresa May IMO wants out-out-out, doesn't care about the damage that it'll do to the UK and wants to avoid any kind of debate from MPs, much less any kind of involvement from the British public.

Sure, she might (or might not, let's not get into that again ) want that. But chances are rather good that the courts will force her to go to the MPs. I doubt her 16-word bill will suffice if MPs are sufficiently lobbied, as I expect is happening right now.

A "Hard Brexit" will be waved through on a nod.

The economic damage that will result will be blamed on the EU.

We'll have the death penalty back within my lifetime - within 10 years if Scotland manages to win her independence quickly and remain in the EU.

All the hard won environmental, public and workers' protections will be rolled back and the people who should be protesting the hardest, the working people whose wages and employment protections will be eroded, will be cheering on the necessary steps which allow "Plucky Britain" to compete on the world stage.

There's no need to be gloomy. Even if the worst comes to pass Brexit will still take about all the time this government has left until the next general election. If the economic results are poor (and they will be if out-out-out happens) chances are the electorate will give them the boot.

I imagine a person like Theresa would welcome that. Make a mess, and leave it for someone else to fix. I believe know of a few people in her party who turned this into an art form.

McHrozni

 

[3point14]

I don't think those behind UKIP care about migrants at all. What they want is cheap foreign imports that the EU's pesky tarrif system frustrates. With that gone they can undercut UK based manufacturing which relies on overpriced UK labour.

Migrants, red tape, soverignty etc was just something to get the "low grade" people incensed enough to vote for Brexit.

"Follow the money"?

Sounds about right.

 

[The Don]

Sure, she might (or might not, let's not get into that again ) want that. But chances are rather good that the courts will force her to go to the MPs. I doubt her 16-word bill will suffice if MPs are sufficiently lobbied, as I expect is happening right now.

Maybe I'm just too pessimistic but if the government is forced to go to the MPs with a 16-word bill then IMO the Conservative Party MPs will be presented with a three-line whip that they will be obliged to follow or suffer parliamentary censure.

There's no need to be gloomy. Even if the worst comes to pass Brexit will still take about all the time this government has left until the next general election. If the economic results are poor (and they will be if out-out-out happens) chances are the electorate will give them the boot.

IMO the **** won't really hit the fan for a couple or three years after Brexit because there'll be a choppy period immediately afterwards where, in the interests of national unity, we'll all be asked to pull together.

I cannot see the electorate giving the Conservatives the book because in England there are two pro-Remain alternatives:

• The Liberal Democrats - currently have 8 MPs, the idea that they'll get another 200+ is laughable IMO
• The Labour Party - who under Corbyn are making themselves more unelectable every day

If we had a functioning opposition I'd agree with you but the Conservatives have a clear field. IMO unless something unprecedented happens, the Labour Party will be out of government for a generation.

I imagine a person like Theresa would welcome that. Make a mess, and leave it for someone else to fix. I believe know of a few people in her party who turned this into an art form.

McHrozni

Perhaps, I think Theresa sees herself as another "Iron Lady" in the Thatcher mould and wants to see Brexit through to her dogmatic conclusion

 

[McHrozni]

Maybe I'm just too pessimistic but if the government is forced to go to the MPs with a 16-word bill then IMO the Conservative Party MPs will be presented with a three-line whip that they will be obliged to follow or suffer parliamentary censure.

Maybe. But such strong-arming the parliament can't be good in the long run. That said ... (see below).

IMO the **** won't really hit the fan for a couple or three years after Brexit because there'll be a choppy period immediately afterwards where, in the interests of national unity, we'll all be asked to pull together.

I cannot see the electorate giving the Conservatives the book because in England there are two pro-Remain alternatives:

• The Liberal Democrats - currently have 8 MPs, the idea that they'll get another 200+ is laughable IMO
• The Labour Party - who under Corbyn are making themselves more unelectable every day

If we had a functioning opposition I'd agree with you but the Conservatives have a clear field. IMO unless something unprecedented happens, the Labour Party will be out of government for a generation.

The next election is three and a half years away. If Brexit is half as bad as predicted, Labor needs to present something vaguely electable by end of 2019 in order to triumph. It is true though that a competent and highly popular Labor right now would be a good bulwark against the seppuku Tories insist on, in a slightly longer run they're just paving the way for their demise.

Perhaps, I think Theresa sees herself as another "Iron Lady" in the Thatcher mould and wants to see Brexit through to her dogmatic conclusion

Maybe. As I said, if she is indeed committed to Brexit, she doesn't even consider what will happen afterwards. Making a mess and leaving it to someone else to sort out is something we've seen ... from her predecessor ... earlier this year, as it happens.

McHrozni

 

[catsmate]

ETA still too enjoyable for him though. How about Somalia? Do they have a government? or is it still just pirates and Islamists fighting it out for control? Send him in to sort it out!

Britain does have an ambassador to Somalia. I know nothing about her so I can't say if she's on the way up or down in her career.

ETA: Actually based on this bio it seems that she's on the way up.

 

[catsmate]

It's quite clear, I think, that UK needs another referendum on what kind of Brexit it wants.

McHrozni

And make it multiple choice STV this time, otherwise something with <20% support could win.
Remember Belfast South.

 

[catsmate]

That would seem to be a good idea but IMO it will never happen.

Theresa May IMO wants out-out-out, doesn't care about the damage that it'll do to the UK and wants to avoid any kind of debate from MPs, much less any kind of involvement from the British public.

She's in a (unfortunately for people who think like me) very strong position to achieve it. Even though the majorty of her MPs were pro-remain, they will likely toe the party line through a combination of party loyalty and fear of (Eurosceptic) constituency associations which gives her a solid majority.

The SNP and Lib Dems can try to fight a rearguard action but unfortunately Her Majesty's loyal opposition is a busted flush and is lead by someone who, despite their protestations to the contrary, appears to want Brexit as well.

A "Hard Brexit" will be waved through on a nod.

The economic damage that will result will be blamed on the EU.

We'll have the death penalty back within my lifetime - within 10 years if Scotland manages to win her independence quickly and remain in the EU.

All the hard won environmental, public and workers' protections will be rolled back and the people who should be protesting the hardest, the working people whose wages and employment protections will be eroded, will be cheering on the necessary steps which allow "Plucky Britain" to compete on the world stage.

I know some estate agents in the Dublin area, are you looking yet?

 

[McHrozni]

And make it multiple choice STV this time, otherwise something with <20% support could win.
Remember Belfast South.

STV = Single Transferable Vote?

I agree with you in that case

McHrozni

 

[catsmate]

STV = Single Transferable Vote?

I agree with you in that case

McHrozni

Yes. Say five or six options with the voters numbering them in order of preference.

 

[Klimax]

And make it multiple choice STV this time, otherwise something with <20% support could win.
Remember Belfast South.

STV = Single Transferable Vote?

I agree with you in that case

McHrozni

Yes. Say five or six options with the voters numbering them in order of preference.

Too much democracy. And there's no such thing as "democracy deficit" anyway...

 

[Craig B]

Too much democracy. And there's no such thing as "democracy deficit" anyway...

If there can be "too much" of something, surely it is possible to have a "deficit" of that thing too, unless the optimal supply of the thing in question is zero.

 

[The Don]

Apparently MPs may be told something about the Brexit plans in February:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38319337

The government's plan for Brexit negotiations will not be published until February at the earliest.

Brexit Secretary David Davis told MPs there was a lot of research and policy work to be done before it was ready.

My view is that they will wait until the last possible moment and give two cruddy alternatives, MPs will be forced to go with the least worst which will then be spun into "broad parliamentary support" for whatever dog's breakfast we end up with