The Unofficial Election 2016 Results Thread PLEASE

[mumblethrax]

David Wong, Michael Moore (of all people), John Michael Greer and others have offered explanations of Trump's ballot success that are way more insightful than "it's all racism!"

Those explanations aren't insightful, because they aren't true. Trump supporters make significantly more money than Clinton supporters, and we've known this for a long time.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/

This is just the rump left trying to explain everything in terms of class struggle. That's not what happened yesterday.

The reality is that Trump is an undisguised ethnonationalist, and lots of people voted for that. That's not a story about decent people looking to make good.

 

[Delphic Oracle]

Strawman. What integral part of the political machine is Trump, exactly?

The part that makes lots of contributions to the right people to get laws passed, tax loopholes installed, building permits approved, properties condemned to make way for new developments, and other kinds of favorable treatment.

We used to call this bribery or corruption, now we call it "free speech."

 

[Noztradamus]

Those explanations aren't insightful, because they aren't true. Trump supporters make significantly more money than Clinton supporters, and we've known this for a long time.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/

This is just the rump left trying to explain everything in terms of class struggle. That's not what happened yesterday.

The reality is that Trump is an undisguised ethnonationalist, and lots of people voted for that. That's not a story about decent people looking to make good.

The exit polls have asked voters to describe their 2015 family income by using one of five broad categories, ranging from “under $30,000” to “$200,000 or more.” It’s fairly straightforward to interpolate a median income for voters of each candidate from this data;

I always lie to this question.

 

[Craig B]

The electoral college is essential and needs to stay. We need to repeal the 17th amendment.

Why not let Trump appoint his donors and political associates in any numbers he wants to the Upper House, as ex-Prime Minister Cameron did in the House of Lords before deserting his post in the U.K. after the Brexit Referendum? That way, the President can reward his pals and benefactors at public expense.

I know there are many who fear democracy, and want political matters to be decided by groups of educated gentlemen. But even they must balk at the incursion into the presidency of a not only monstrous but ludicrous egomaniac. Trump is not merely dangerous - he's laughable. The USA has elected Toad of Toad Hall.

 

[Foolmewunz]

Those explanations aren't insightful, because they aren't true. Trump supporters make significantly more money than Clinton supporters, and we've known this for a long time.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/

This is just the rump left trying to explain everything in terms of class struggle. That's not what happened yesterday.

The reality is that Trump is an undisguised ethnonationalist, and lots of people voted for that. That's not a story about decent people looking to make good.

This is the dirty little secret that the mainstream media totally avoided. If they commented, it was something along the lines of "Some people see statement x or y or z as possibly pandering to racists, but here's a genuine knee-grow, Sheriff Clarke, to explain why it isn't".

It's easy to get people to vote against their own interests if you find the right emotional trigger. "I hate them Xs!" is about as emotional as it gets in America.

The rich and calculating bigots roped in the poor reactionary bigots. If Johnny Lunch Box thinks that the upper class liars are going to bring back forty buck an hour manufacturing jobs, he's in for a big surprise, but only if he recognizes it. He won't, though. He'll be too busy hating the next group the Haves target to blame for their greed.

Let's see how much the GOP invests in proper retraining for all those people they've promised to return the jobs to or how much is allotted for drug and alcohol abuse treatment in the lower-middle class white segment of the population. Or for mental health. When the MRAs come back in five years to tell us how bad it is to be white and male and how the substance abuse/addiction rates are higher than ever and that they're at an even higher rate of suicides, will anyone blame it on the economic dead end that they bought into for the sake of voting against brown people? I doubt it.

 

[Hlafordlaes]

I want Islam to be a bad memory on this planet.

Me, too, along with most other fixed religious and political dogma. Genocide, however, would not only be an outright evil - acting exactly like Islam itself - but would guarantee a mystical and sympathetic aura to Mo the Monster's teachings for generations after. I would never give that maniacal dolt such an easy leg up.

 

[Hlafordlaes]

This is the dirty little secret that the mainstream media totally avoided. If they commented, it was something along the lines of "Some people see statement x or y or z as possibly pandering to racists, but here's a genuine knee-grow, Sheriff Clarke, to explain why it isn't".

It's easy to get people to vote against their own interests if you find the right emotional trigger. "I hate them Xs!" is about as emotional as it gets in America.

The rich and calculating bigots roped in the poor reactionary bigots. If Johnny Lunch Box thinks that the upper class liars are going to bring back forty buck an hour manufacturing jobs, he's in for a big surprise, but only if he recognizes it. He won't, though. He'll be too busy hating the next group the Haves target to blame for their greed.

Let's see how much the GOP invests in proper retraining for all those people they've promised to return the jobs to or how much is allotted for drug and alcohol abuse treatment in the lower-middle class white segment of the population. Or for mental health. When the MRAs come back in five years to tell us how bad it is to be white and male and how the substance abuse/addiction rates are higher than ever and that they're at an even higher rate of suicides, will anyone blame it on the economic dead end that they bought into for the sake of voting against brown people? I doubt it.

Hear ye, hear ye.

 

[Hlafordlaes]

Ive heard many people say to never underestimate the stupidity of Americans. I used to dismiss this view. I don't any longer.

You should try working with a major military contractor which, gulp, I somehow did for a while (in a non-military domain). Don't get me wrong, there's some major, top-notch, honorable excellence and authentic intellectual fire power among the military and former military, but by and large, what I mostly saw was Stupid wielding a club and insisting on its way, because "America." Every day I could see an "ally" wince. BTW, one of the most anti-American places in Europe is.... the UK! I think they got and get the bulk of the paternalism and arm-twisting.

 

[Belz...]

What part of the political machine is he, exactly? Party elite? Washington insider? SuperPAC money man? Revolving-door lobbyist? MIC contractor? Nepotic office-holder? Media shill?

Don't mistake exploiting a corrupt system for authoring and ensuring a corrupt system. Don't imagine that people can't tell the difference between a man who plays the crooked game and the crooks who run that game.

Oh, and where's the difference? Trump sure is part of the people who crooked the game in the first place, as he admits to bribing politicians for personal gain. He's not the hero of the people.

 

[Belz...]

Who exactly sold it as a compromise, outside of this forum?

I don't understand your question, here.

And of course "those fools". It's like you don't even want to treat people as human beings.

What a stupid thing to say. How could I call them fools if they weren't human beings? Your hyperbole isn't helping your case.

No wonder you lost.

No one lost because they thought the other side is stupid. One side lost because there was more on the other side.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

That would be a very interesting statistic to compile or at least estimate this year. How many people voted for a Senate and/or House candidate, but left the President blank?

I would bet it was bigger than ever this year.

I was hesitating to make this public, but I was one. On general principle - living in GA it made not a whit of difference.

I, too, was wondering how large a contingent did likewise.

 

[BobTheCoward]

Starting off with ad homs, yes that is a bright neon sign to "no argument".

I'm not making an argument therefore it is not an ad hominem. As I said, I'm not even saying I'm right.

For whatever reason, there is a split where some see malfeasance and others do not. It isnt a party thing as I am a libertarian Clinton hater. Where does it come from? How does one end up on one side of the debate and not the other?

The answer

 

[marplots]

This is fascinating. I won't say I'm right, but your views of what government and politics feel childish to me. It is in this weird whole picture of some sort of malfeasance between Clinton, Sanders, and the DNC. Honestly, all I see is the legitimate interaction.

This has been the hardest thing for me to grasp this election. Where does this sense of malfeasance come from? Why do so many have that reaction when I and many others see reasonable activity?

It's because we humans are prone to injecting agency without clear evidence. We chunk complex dynamics into simpler patterns and then backdate justification by imputing agency.

 

[wareyin]

I was hesitating to make this public, but I was one. On general principle - living in GA it made not a whit of difference.

I, too, was wondering how large a contingent did likewise.

I fully expected GA to go Trump (voted for Clinton myself, though), but I was surprised at how long it took them to call it. Heck, Isakson was declared the winner with 60% of the vote counted, but they just kept holding off for Trump.

 

[Cain]

Those explanations aren't insightful, because they aren't true. Trump supporters make significantly more money than Clinton supporters, and we've known this for a long time.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/

This is just the rump left trying to explain everything in terms of class struggle. That's not what happened yesterday.

The reality is that Trump is an undisguised ethnonationalist, and lots of people voted for that. That's not a story about decent people looking to make good.

I'm not ready to buy this narrative either.

A smaller share of whites voted for Trump than Romney (if we believe the exit polls, and why not?). In fact, Trump outperformed Romney when it came to Blacks, Latinos, and Asians.

Hillary Clinton also received a lower share of the white vote than Obama (Trump was off of Romney by about 1%; Clinton was off of Obama by about 2%). Third parties mostly attract white people, and white people were more likely this cycle to vote for a third party than the two previous elections).

Trump also received fewer votes than Romney (or John McCain). Trump's white nationalist dog whistle may have brought in unlikely voters which allowed him to edge Clinton in certain battleground states, but all of that played a far bigger role in securing the nomination rather than defeating the Democrat. Romney, Rubio or Kasich would have likely performed much better in the general election than Trump.

Exit poll links:
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president/
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/president

 

[Ambrosia]

That would be a very interesting statistic to compile or at least estimate this year. How many people voted for a Senate and/or House candidate, but left the President blank?

I would bet it was bigger than ever this year.

Clinton loses Michigan by 13,225; 110,133 cast empty ballot

Blame for Clinton's collapse has been directed, by some, at those perceived to have split the Democrat vote, or who voted for third party candidates without a hope, or just didn't vote at all.

Adding fuel to the fire are results like Michigan's, where 110,133 cast a ballot without voting for a presidential candidate, and Clinton lost by just 13,225 votes.

[link] (posted at 10:37 on this feed)

 

[Fast Eddie B]

"Clinton loses Michigan by 13,225; 110,133 cast empty ballot".

Wow! Thanks for finding that.

"If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice."

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Yes, Clinton could have won if people hadn't chosen to abstain or vote 3rd party:

Number of more votes for Trump in:

Wisconsin: 27,000 (Johnson 108,000)

Missouri 17,000 (Johnson 173,000)

Pennsylvania 68,000 (Johnson 145,000)

Florida 120,000 (Johnson 205,000)

 

[psionl0]

Yes, Clinton could have won if people hadn't chosen to abstain or vote 3rd party:

Another victory for FPTP.

 

[BobTheCoward]

Yes, Clinton could have won if people hadn't chosen to abstain or vote 3rd party:

Number of more votes for Trump in:

Wisconsin: 27,000 (Johnson 108,000)

Missouri 17,000 (Johnson 173,000)

Pennsylvania 68,000 (Johnson 145,000)

Florida 120,000 (Johnson 205,000)

If people choose not to vote third-party, they go to both Trump and Clinton. You simply cannot siphon off 17,000 votes in Missouri.

Of the 170,000, the best case would be zero votes for Johnson, 87k for Clinton, and 78k for Trump. That gets Clinton the 17k (it is actually harder the fewer people switching from third party that occur). That is 54% of the Johnson vote.

Possible? Maybe.

Edited to fix math