Ed FiveThirtyEight GE Forecast

NYT: 90%
538: 87%
Daily Kos: 96%
HuffPo: 93%
PredictWise: 91%
PEC: 98%
 
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Stacko said:
It's not just Georgia the Dems are head-faking into. Bernie and Chelsea are campaigning in Arizona this week. With the Orange Menace returning to the conspiratorial white identity politics that delivered his plurality in the primaries, there's an embarrassment of opportunities for the Dems to go after.
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And it was just announced Michelle Obama is coming on Thursday.
 
According to 538, the following red states (per 2012 results) are closer than Pennsylvania (D+7.7), a state that Donald has to win:

North Carolina: D+3.4
Arizona: D+0.8
Georgia: R+2.5
Alaska: R+4.0
Missouri: R+4.1
Texas: R+5.8
South Carolina: R+6.0
Indiana: R+6.1
Kansas: R+6.8
 
538: 82.9%, 17.0%. Steady decrease from a week and a half ago, when we were at 88.1, 11.9. And it keeps dropping. Not good. I really wish people would stop saying that the election is over.
 
Buckaroo said:
538: 82.9%, 17.0%. Steady decrease from a week and a half ago, when we were at 88.1, 11.9. And it keeps dropping. Not good. I really wish people would stop saying that the election is over.
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It is for me. I already voted.

But, I'll get my wife to the polls, too.
 
Buckaroo said:
538: 82.9%, 17.0%. Steady decrease from a week and a half ago, when we were at 88.1, 11.9. And it keeps dropping. Not good. I really wish people would stop saying that the election is over.
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I've been expressing my concerns but I've been assured that Hillary is a nailed on certainty and that any apparent increase in Trump's electoral chances is just statistical noise.
 
Buckaroo said:
538: 82.9%, 17.0%. Steady decrease from a week and a half ago, when we were at 88.1, 11.9. And it keeps dropping. Not good. I really wish people would stop saying that the election is over.
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I agree about overconfidence, but everybody was predicting that the race would tighten a little. Let's presume the drop continues at it's presence rate of five percent a week. On election day, Hilary would have a 75% chance of winning.
 
dudalb said:
I agree about overconfidence, but everybody was predicting that the race would tighten a little. Let's presume the drop continues at it's presence rate of five percent a week. On election day, Hilary would have a 75% chance of winning.
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Which would make a Trump victory a low probability/high consequence event -- without the low probability.
 
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The Don said:
I've been expressing my concerns but I've been assured that Hillary is a nailed on certainty and that any apparent increase in Trump's electoral chances is just statistical noise.
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Which it was when you were doing your chicken little act. Now we have a longer time base and it's tighten a couple of points, tomorrow it could go the other way however.
 
The % chance of winning is a weird thing to discuss. Voters are not pachinko balls, the behaviour is not actually random. It only seems like it in aggregate of looking at millions of people who are not us, because we are looking at them in aggregate. Similarly with the maps of "if only (group) voted" data. It's intellectually onanistic tea leaf reading.

I'm not a statistician, I studied anthropology in college. Which is also intellectually onanistic if you do it wrong. And if you do it right, now that I think about it.

We know some people will vote but never know how many. That's the first thing that looks random but isn't, it's predictable-within-range output of a chaotic system. I failed to vote due to operator error in 08 (my secret shame, I'm admitting it in public for the first time ever) because I had a Gilligan's Island adventure. I literally left the house expecting to be home for bedtime, and didn't come home for a week. I was supposed to kick scenery off a truck and drive away, but the build was so behind I couldn't do it. I talked the guy into turning in the moving truck locally and I'd take Greyhound home later, called the wife, bought socks, toothbrush and underpants at Target and moved into a random bed for the week.

Totally didn't fill in my ballot before I left. :shame:

So I'm a chaotic particle. But not really random, because in aggregate we know some number of voters within a measurable and predictable range will skip, avoid or miss voting for any of myriad reasons. But because voting or blowing it off is decision based behavior, it isn't random. Random would be dumping the voters in the pachinko machine, with no difference between doing it today or tomorrow. It's decontextualized from the motives and behaviours of people that change in response to events and conditions.

I think the 72 hours before the election, the last media /social network feeding frenzy cycle, will impact the election more than the last 72 days. I fear what all the various players have waiting for the opportune moment, because I suspect a half dozen different political and geopolitical players have cards on the table. So some dramatic strategic play or another by assange or Putin or the Times of London or ISIL could bring out or burn out a significant number of people.
 
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Garrison said:
Which it was when you were doing your chicken little act. Now we have a longer time base and it's tighten a couple of points, tomorrow it could go the other way however.
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Well I pointed out that it was following a similar trajectory, sharp drop, a rumble along the bottom followed by a steady move upwards. Looks like we have the same again. But by all means call me chicken little:rolleyes:
 
You just don'e get the Britex and a US Presedential election are apples and oranges. Many more factors at play.
 
The Don said:
Well I pointed out that it was following a similar trajectory, sharp drop, a rumble along the bottom followed by a steady move upwards. Looks like we have the same again. But by all means call me chicken little:rolleyes:
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And you are still doing nothing but guessing, there's nothing to stop the trend reversing over the next few days, but hey if you need to cling to the hopes of a Trump victory go right ahead.
 
Note that Silver's model is the only one below 90% (others are as high as 98% and 99%) and at this time in 2012 he only had Obama at 75%.

I'm not even a little bit worried.
 
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