Trump could win presidency: Yes or No?

Nov 4 place your bets

  • Trump will win, 100%

    Votes: 42 16.9%
  • Hilary will win, 100%

    Votes: 82 32.9%
  • Trump will win, but I'm worried Hil might triumph

    Votes: 9 3.6%
  • Hilary will win, but I'm scared the chances.

    Votes: 116 46.6%

  • Total voters
    249
It is not only globalization but US banking. The world is still on the edge of depression with interest rates at near zero. Fear, fear, fear.

Trump has the common sense (business sense) to recognize that something must be done. Even at the expense of short term pain (mostly for the rich and the banksters).

How the hell is Trump the right guy to fix it? He got into the mortgage game late before the crash and kept pushing his products after it became evident he shouldn't be. I might buy that argument if he'd seen the crash coming like many people did but he didn't.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...701880-d00f-11e5-88cd-753e80cd29ad_story.html

He was going issue mortgages and would have sold them as consolidated debt obligations, contributing to the banking collapse. Yeah, that's a great resume builder.
 
I'd appreciate an informed opinion on how valid this analysis is :
http://www.vox.com/2016/6/2/11833548/donald-trump-support-race-religion-economy

I did read the beginning

You can ask just one simple question to find out whether someone likes Donald Trump more than Hillary Clinton: Is Barack Obama a Muslim? If they are white and the answer is yes, 89 percent of the time that person will have a higher opinion of Trump than Clinton.
That’s more accurate than asking people if it’s harder to move up the income ladder than it was for their parents (54 percent), whether they oppose trade deals (66 percent), or if they think the economy is worse now than last year (81 percent). It’s even more accurate than asking them if they are Republican (87 percent).

and it's already wrong. It's not the same population. It's just the same variables across different populations.

Do I need to read it further? It's like he asked a three thousand people bunch: "are you a Republican?", one thousand said "yes", then he asked these if they support Trump over Clinton and 870 said yes. He also asked the same three thousands if they believed Obama is a Muslim, and 11 of them say "yes", and from them 10 supported Trump over Clinton hence "89% of them are saying Obama is a Muslim and we are going to vote Trump". I don't remember Clinton saying Obama is a Muslim, at least recently, so, no wonder an idiot who believes Obama to be Muslim is preferring Jerry de Poolboy over Betty the Ugly for Thespian of the Year.
 
Do I need to read it further?
I think so. The methodology described doesn't seem to me to be what you've described. It's a bit garbled though.

Here’s how I examined the 2016 ANES pilot survey, which includes a number of questions on economic attitudes as well as attitudes toward race, religion, and immigration.


I compared feeling thermometer evaluations for Donald Trump and those for Hillary Clinton. These evaluations run from 100 (most positive) to 0 (most negative). By looking at the difference in these evaluations, voters were ranked from 100 (most positive toward Clinton, most negative toward Trump) and -100 (most negative toward Clinton, most positive toward Trump). Those in the middle (a score of zero) were equally positive (or negative) toward the two candidates.
You'll note that this describes what was compared, but not what it was compared to. But whatever, this is a score every participant gets.

He then defines variables such as
The first was a variable measuring how optimistic or pessimistic respondents were about economic opportunity in the US consisting of the combined results of these two questions:

Do you think people’s ability to improve their financial well-being is now better, worse, or the same as it was 20 years ago?
Compared with your parents, do you think it is easier, harder, or neither easier nor harder for you to move up the income ladder?
then
Next I ran a regression model to see how much impact the different variables had. The results of the model are shown in the graph below. The dots represent the impact that variable has on support for Clinton versus Trump.
I assume that the variables are independent in this model.

Can you make more sense of this than me?

I'm not enamoured of the hook-paragraph either : of course the answer "Yes" to the Muslim question is a very good indicator of Trump support, but the answer "No" isn't a good indicator either way. Or so it seems to me.
 
I think so. The methodology described doesn't seem to me to be what you've described. It's a bit garbled though.

I am still not sure. It's difficult to tell how the "no, Obama is not a Muslim" were accounted.

As he measured Trump+Clinton in relative terms, he got a person saying yay Trump is a 100! and yay Clinton in an 90! with the same value as Trump is piece of 10! and Clinton is a *%&@ nil! Both people get -10 in this man's scale. Suppose people who hate Muslims are giving low grades to both candidates -yet they see Trump a bit better- if you join this together it's not clear what happened to those who had a measure but don't hate Muslims, I have to conclude that this work is badly explained and probably badly done.

I assume that the variables are independent in this model.

He designed secondary variables departing from the variables in the original study. No explanation about the mix. Did he do a weighted average of did he manufacture a difference like the main variable?

Can you make more sense of this than me?

I'm not enamoured of the hook-paragraph either : of course the answer "Yes" to the Muslim question is a very good indicator of Trump support, but the answer "No" isn't a good indicator either way. Or so it seems to me.

I can't make head or tails of it and the regression model that he didn't describe. Was it a Bayesian regression? Variables of opinion are not that independent as to use most other models.

For me it boils down pretty much to what I said in my previous post, not by methodology but in spirit.

This guy says «The graph indicates that neither income nor economic pessimism has a statistically significant impact on evaluations of Clinton versus Trump». But the same graphic says that education, being male and being white are even less significant, which is not what polls about Trump are saying.

Do you remember mhaze trying to sell that "Jerkova's" work on AK index and global temperature? This smell so the same!
 
Even at the expense of short term pain (mostly for the rich and the banksters).
If there's anything certain about Trump it's that he'll do nothing that discommodes the rich deliberately. Another is that there'll be little or no correlation between intent and outcome in anything he does.
 
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It would be good if the whole thing got tidied up and published. As it stands, I'm not about to set sail on it :).

I wouldn't even drive to that port :)

If you take a look at the figures and remembering the bars are the 95% confidence interval, take a look to that with the label "Is Obama a Muslim?". Notice that it doesn't say "Obama is a Muslim" nor "Obama isn't a Muslim". And the hooky title of the article "The easiest way to guess if someone supports Trump? Ask if Obama is a Muslim." It doesn't stand analysis.

About the media publishing this, Wiki says it's liberal and cites as a controversy

In June 2016 Vox suspended contributor Emmett Rensin for a series of tweets calling for anti-Trump riots, including one on June 3 that urged, "If Trump comes to your town, start a riot." The tweets drew attention because violent anti-Trump protests took place in San Jose, California on the day of Rensin's tweet.
Sounds a bit of a pattern, doesn't it?
 
It would be good if the whole thing got tidied up and published. As it stands, I'm not about to set sail on it :).

"I knowed it!!!! I knowed it!!!!" (Granny, from The Beverly Hillbillies)

"Those results come from the 2016 American National Election Study (ANES) pilot survey."

Here it is: questionnaire, codebook

It's from February 2016 and it contains all the candidates during the primaries, so the comparison between Trump and Clinton followers has not much to do with the current reality.

(From a 1200 size sample, 400 said BO is a Muslim, 794 he is not, 6 skipped)
 
Because "alien" is proxy for "black" (Obama) or "hispanic" (Cruz). It's the "he's not one of us, you can feel it in your skin" card.

I understood that instantly years ago when Trump asked the birth certificate, and that, being me from a different country, culture and language (Look for any of my posts here in 2009 and tell me if you can understand what I'm saying).


Proxy? Is there some secret code that I am unaware of? How do you "know" such things?

People were told I was from Africa. They were surprised that I was white. I am able to claim officially that I am part of the "white tribe" of Africa.

Spanish speaking from Argentina?

"Us and them"? Who does not have such categories? Example - "Us" Democrats and "them" deplorables. The distinction is whether one acts on such human stereotyping (a genetic survival trait), and discriminates unfairly, or uses negative pejoratives. (Is deplorable not a pejorative?)

If some-one acts in a biased manner, is it unacceptable to explain their bias by saying that the persons belongs to a group that is mostly negatively inclined? If true, how would one say it without saying it?

And are you saying that once a racist, always a racist? That no-one (and no society) learns and no-one (and no society) changes and improves? And you can recognize "them" from the color of their skin and background? In other words, you "stereotype" them.


The denial is that Hillary did not start the rumor. I accept that from what I read.

But it seems that one or more Hillary campaign staffers did start and circulate it. And one got fired when it seemed necessary to disavow it. Nice to have minions to do the dirty work.

Trump did take it up and own it though.
 
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Proxy? Is there some secret code that I am unaware of? How do you "know" such things?

People were told I was from Africa. They were surprised that I was white. I am able to claim officially that I am part of the "white tribe" of Africa.

Spanish speaking from Argentina?

"Us and them"? Who does not have such categories? Example - "Us" Democrats and "them" deplorables. The distinction is whether one acts on such human stereotyping (a genetic survival trait), and discriminates unfairly, or uses negative pejoratives. (Is deplorable not a pejorative?)

If some-one acts in a biased manner, is it unacceptable to explain their bias by saying that the persons belongs to a group that is mostly negatively inclined? If true, how would one say it without saying it?

And are you saying that once a racist, always a racist? That no-one (and no society) learns and no-one (and no society) changes and improves? And you can recognize "them" from the color of their skin and background? In other words, you "stereotype" them.


The denial is that Hillary did not start the rumor. I accept that from what I read.

But it seems that one or more Hillary campaign staffers did start and circulate it. And one got fired when it seemed necessary to disavow it. Nice to have minions to do the dirty work.

Trump did take it up and own it though.
This means you didn't actually read the evidence that has been supplied.
 
Proxy? Is there some secret code that I am unaware of? How do you "know" such things?

From the dictionary
prox·y

(prŏk′sē)n. pl. prox·ies

1. a. One appointed or authorized to act for another, especially a person appointed to vote as one wishes at a meeting.
b. The authority to act for another.
c. The written authorization to act in place of another.

2. An entity or variable used to model or generate data assumed to resemble the data associated with another entity or variable that is typically more difficult to research.

In this case "alien" is a sanitized version of "black" or "hispanic" that passes the screening of political correctness.
 
"I knowed it!!!! I knowed it!!!!" (Granny, from The Beverly Hillbillies)

"Those results come from the 2016 American National Election Study (ANES) pilot survey."

Here it is: questionnaire, codebook

It's from February 2016 and it contains all the candidates during the primaries, so the comparison between Trump and Clinton followers has not much to do with the current reality.

(From a 1200 size sample, 400 said BO is a Muslim, 794 he is not, 6 skipped)
Thanks for that. It would take a very smart cookie to put one over on you, I've noticed. Even I wouldn't try it. :)
 
From the dictionary


In this case "alien" is a sanitized version of "black" or "hispanic" that passes the screening of political correctness.

Indeed, the infamous 'dog whistle' with barely-plausible deniability.
 
Proxy? Is there some secret code that I am unaware of? How do you "know" such things?

People were told I was from Africa. They were surprised that I was white. I am able to claim officially that I am part of the "white tribe" of Africa.

Spanish speaking from Argentina?

"Us and them"? Who does not have such categories? Example - "Us" Democrats and "them" deplorables. The distinction is whether one acts on such human stereotyping (a genetic survival trait), and discriminates unfairly, or uses negative pejoratives. (Is deplorable not a pejorative?)

If some-one acts in a biased manner, is it unacceptable to explain their bias by saying that the persons belongs to a group that is mostly negatively inclined? If true, how would one say it without saying it?

And are you saying that once a racist, always a racist? That no-one (and no society) learns and no-one (and no society) changes and improves? And you can recognize "them" from the color of their skin and background? In other words, you "stereotype" them.


The denial is that Hillary did not start the rumor. I accept that from what I read.

But it seems that one or more Hillary campaign staffers did start and circulate it. And one got fired when it seemed necessary to disavow it. Nice to have minions to do the dirty work.

Trump did take it up and own it though.

My apologies for having being excessively succinct in my previous message. Your post has indeed many points that should be addressed.

Let me start speaking of scepticism, something that is not very common in fora. What I am about to say may seem astray but I assure you its reason will be soon evident.

"8 out of 10 cats prefer Whiskes". What does it mean? Basically, nothing at all. Does it mean 10 cats were offered a big plate of tuna on the left and a big plate of Whikes on the right and 8 of them rejected the tuna and jumped towards Whiskes? In that case, Whiskes seems to be exquisite, at least for cats. Or does it mean 10 cats were offered to choose among one plate of shredded cabbage and a plate of Whiskes and even so 2 of them chose cabbage over pellets that now start to look pretty nasty?

The success of those remarks depends on some work the public has to add. The ad is successful as an ad (not as a piece of logic) because most of the public imagine the cats were offered Whiskes and other famous cat food and they chose Whiskes over its competitor. The public has to add information that wasn't there. That is called "an induced inference": I throw at you something blurry and as all human beings have a tendency to try to make find meaning in everything, you concluded what wasn't really said. I'm sure they studied "6 of 10 cats..." to "10 of 10 cats..." and measured the wished inference maximized with 8. Yet the phrase is still saying nothing at all.

Obama is "an alien" is exactly the same thing, as well as Obama is "a Muslim". You don't need to prove that. You only need to keep that alive, and let that each person add their own salt and pepper and stew it into whatever they like to believe. Lots of people thinking "Obama is a f****** n-worder", and biting their tongues to avoid expressing it openly, will jump to the opportunity to believe he is a Muslim born in Kenya and breast fed in Indonesia. That is a proxy. And that's how the world works.

You have enunciated a few of somewhat valid points from a rational perspective. Yet, all of them pale when we address how political messages work. In that "research" above which found 400 out of 1200 US citizens believing Obama is a Muslim, I'm not prone to declare those 400 to be stupid, but all those 1200 to belong to a cultural system that does such things. Then I am taken as an Anti-Amercian. An induced inference that poster chose to believe more than a year ago and he reinforces it every time he can. No wonder, he could have been any of those 1200.
 
Example of propaganda by liberal media:

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presi...imes-reaches-20-1-support-among-black-voters/

… The Huffington Post went so far as to run a subhead that read, ‘This little girl wishes she was somewhere less scary, like in a dark room with a clown holding a machete.’

Local news reported the actual words from the girl herself and her mother: “I was scared Secret Service would tackle me for touching him and there was a lot of people around yelling.”

On Facebook, her mother posted:

Ok ya’ll, that pic is being BLOWN way out of proportion. Mari was not terrified of that man, she still wants to ask him her question…(snip)…To those saying she is traumatized for life…..seriously people?!?! Including a photo of her about an hour after that pic so you can see how traumatized for life she was.


I would think the little girl’s mother would know the truth! Unless Breitbart is lying, but I would think that would be verifiable?

On CNN I watch on more than one occasion as an unexpectedly pro-Trump person gets cut off, or the anchor says "Did you just tell me to stop talking?" to some-one in his ear piece.

And yes. I know both sides do it. Public trust in media is down to about 32%.
 
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(snip)

Obama is "an alien" is exactly the same thing, as well as Obama is "a Muslim". You don't need to prove that. You only need to keep that alive, and let that each person add their own salt and pepper and stew it into whatever they like to believe. Lots of people thinking "Obama is a f****** n-worder", and biting their tongues to avoid expressing it openly, will jump to the opportunity to believe he is a Muslim born in Kenya and breast fed in Indonesia. That is a proxy. And that's how the world works.

You have enunciated a few of somewhat valid points from a rational perspective. Yet, all of them pale when we address how political messages work. In that "research" above which found 400 out of 1200 US citizens believing Obama is a Muslim, I'm not prone to declare those 400 to be stupid, but all those 1200 to belong to a cultural system that does such things. Then I am taken as an Anti-Amercian. An induced inference that poster chose to believe more than a year ago and he reinforces it every time he can. No wonder, he could have been any of those 1200.


My other work is going well so I can spend a little time here.

I will agree with you that racism is alive and well is the USA. And is widespread and not voiced publicly. I know this because white Americans would assume I was racist when they heard I was from South Africa (not originally though), and tell me all sorts of anti-Black opinions. On the other hand, family members with a distinctive SA accent were treated with abuse by black Americans.

With regard to Trump and Obama, I have not seen any direct reference to race in a pejorative way. As a (legal) immigrant to the US, I was "an alien".

I see racism in reverse in South Africa now. In addition, many black people who take offense at a negative attack by a non-black make the assumption (most often incorrectly) that there is an implied racist motivation.

After 15 years in the USA, I found that 1992 to 2005 in SA was refreshingly non-racist, until the government began blaming the legacy of Apartheid for it's failures.

My grand-daughter (in-law) has a black father. She did not realize that she was "black" until she went for her last two years of high school in Connecticut and people began to talk about how disadvantaged she was because she was "black". She is stressed in the US and would rather be back in SA.

I think we can agree that the US has a problem. We differ about Trump.
 
The city of Berlin elected their senate today and it was very interesting to watch the prognosis turning into the actual result. What was remarkable is that the "Alternative for Germany" party, fairly new Anti-immigrant, Eurosceptic, Islamophobe, a late comer to similar parties in Europe and like them demonized in the corporate press, went from low 11% in the prognosis to what looks now with 97% of the votes counted like easily over 14%. The difference comes from equally distributed losses of the other parties. A pattern by now known not only since Brexit and I would assume there's the same with Trump - people are just afraid to "admit" that they will vote for him and that is not reliably possible to take care of in polls and prognosis.
 

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