Trump could win presidency: Yes or No?

[aleCcowaN]

I'll have a quick go at it.

While many of us in the politics subforum fall far, far short of our ideal, the one thing virtually all posters on this board claim is a respect for critical thinking. Trump views critical thinking with a disdain never before seen in a candidate. He held on to birtherism longer than any public figure in the United States. He claimed to know more about how to defeat ISIS than the generals. He refuses to admit that there were not thousands of Muslims cheering in New Jersey on 9/11. He has frequently claimed that Climate Change is a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese. He is an inveterate bull****er with complete disregard for the truth; therefore he is the very antithesis of a critical thinker. He is proud to admit that he is not a data kind of guy. His contempt of facts is so great, that he frequently asserts that he never made claims that were recorded on video.


As news of the shooting in Orlando was breaking, he sent out a tweet bragging about his foresight.
On the afternoons of 9/11, he bragged that he now owned the tallest building in NYC.
He mocked a handicapped reporter.
He attacked a fire marshal who was enforcing building capacity codes.¹He advocated killing the families of terrorists.
He cries about being treated unfairly by the press when he has been given hundreds of millions of dollars of free publicity.
He answered a question about his views of God, in part, by describing his real estate successes.
He has not a whit of empathy for the people who lost money on Trump U.

He is a self-centered, childish, braggart with no moral compass who will say anything to please the people in front of him. Not only will he claim to support opposite positions in a single day, he occasionally champions opposite positions in a single interview. He is a smug, intolerant blowhard who demands special treatment while claiming to be a tough as nails hard hitter. When he doesn't get his way he accuses others of being biased against him even though no bias was displayed.

That's why I hate him.




1) I will confess to that reason being idiosyncratic the me.

ETA
And yes, I appreciate the irony of my sometimes using emotions instead of critical reasoning in this post.

Well, thank you very much for your honesty, really. Others in both sides of the street do that but they'd hardly admit it so frankly.

My point is that there's a tendency to resolve everything by resorting to hate that is deeply rooted in the "American" society. I draw a parallel with the movie Crash (2004). Do you remember the character played by Matt Dillon who was the most blatantly racist verbally? And what happened to the innocent character played by Ryan Phillippe? Well, this works in a similar way to me. In that movie there was only one character who wasn't racist one way or another, I don't remember the name of the actress, but it was who played the girlfriend of the character played by Don Cheadle***. That's the way I see you all. I'm always afraid one of you is going to mix up the medal of Saint Christopher with a gun!

I hope that this whole electoral process, which started with Dems choosing the best Kardashian and Reps choosing the best male character in Jersey Shore, will end up teaching everybody a lesson that you have to change the ways of your society in electoral matters. And for that, I recommend "Man in the Mirror" by Michael Jackson for inspiration, replacing the Obamacare part with education about how a real democracy works. Because, you know, the United States is a Republic of outstanding quality, but regarding democracy...

***

Graham: [on the phone] Mom, I can't talk to you right now, okay? I'm having sex with a white woman.
[hangs up, and Ria gets out of bed]
Graham: OK, where were we?
Ria: I was white, and you were about to **** off in the shower.
Graham: Oh, ****. Come on. I would have said you were Mexican, but I don't think it would have pissed her off as much.
Ria: Why do you keep everybody a certain distance, huh? What, you start to feel something and panic?
Graham: Come on, Maria. You're just pissed 'cause I answered the phone.
Ria: That's just where I begin to get pissed. I mean, really, what kind of man speaks to his mother that way, huh?
Graham: Oh, this is about my mother. What do you know about my mother?
Ria: If I was your father, I'd kick your ******* ***.
Graham: OK, I was raised badly. Why don't you take your clothes off, get back into bed, and teach me a lesson?
Ria: You want a lesson? I'll give you a lesson. How 'bout a geography lesson? My father's from Puerto Rico. My mother's from El Salvador. Neither one of those is Mexico.
Graham: Ah. Well then I guess the big mystery is, who gathered all those remarkably different cultures together and taught them all how to park their cars on their lawns?

 

[CapelDodger]

I'm open to other interpretations but I'm not convinced. I see a feeling most everybody is feeding day by day and post by post. Fear doesn't work that way. Hate does.

This isn't true for me since I reached maximum contempt and loathing for Trump years ago. The whole process took about ten minutes. To know him is to despise him.

What Trump's daily exercises in scumbaggery have fed is my contempt for his followers, but that's topped out now as well.

 

[aleCcowaN]

We're now entering thinly semantic distinction territory.

 

[Aardvark422]

Aardvark sex is illegal..... Cripes...

I've been engaging in illegal activity for years??!! How'd I miss that?

Won't someone think of the baby aardvarks

Unless we're talking about sex between humans and aardvarks in which case better bring along some of those chocolate-covered ants on your "date"

Hey, I started a nice long thread all about adorable baby aardvarks. Now I come to find they are products of illicit encounters. Kinda makes it all the better.

 

[CapelDodger]

We're now entering thinly semantic distinction territory.

Not really. My hatred isn't increasing. What is increasing daily is my trepidation.

 

[Frank Newgent]

Did this guy used to post here?

https://twitter.com/writeintrump?lang=en

 

[Ladewig]

I am unfamiliar with all the cultural references you cited.

..., will end up teaching everybody a lesson that you have to change the ways of your society in electoral matters. And for that, I recommend "Man in the Mirror" by Michael Jackson for inspiration, replacing the Obamacare part with education about how a real democracy works. Because, you know, the United States is a Republic of outstanding quality, but regarding democracy...

fine with me. I have no idea how to propose and popularize such an idea, so there is little I can do.

 

[aleCcowaN]

I am unfamiliar with all the cultural references you cited.

Then you should watch Crash (2004) -won three Oscars, including best motion picture-. For me it's a sociological lesson -won also best writing/original screenplay-.

fine with me. I have no idea how to propose and popularize such an idea, so there is little I can do.

Let's start a thread here on November 9th on "how to improve democracy in the United States". It's a discussion for everybody to learn something.

 

[phiwum]

The highlighted bit tells me you are alien to the field of Statistics in the real world (its wording too). You seem not having anything to ask about why two pollsters using similar types and sizes of samples on the same population make field work the same days and get 5 points of difference between them. That doesn't bother you, but what I do, which has anything to do neither with the unadjusted polls I post nor with my forecast, that did.

My forecast was made back in May or June, polls were just a fraction of it (corrected by me, of course, because I can't help doing what I know and should the same way I can't help seeing when I open my eyes to the daylight). My forecast is systemic, based in the knowledge I have acquired about the Usaian society. And I have to say that members of this forum have been very helpful in that, as well as the media, the candidates and their rallies, and the published polls.

Now, to address your specific question as you asked it, correction of biases and design of questionnaires is a permanent task in this polling business which has to be cost-effective sacrificing quality the least possible. There's also a cultural aspect of the trade. Well funded and, hence, well made polls are not available to the public. They are for the people who need to know and pay for that knowledge. In those polls published, there's some media who throws some coins to have the exclusive and a pollster who has something to advertise. They make cost-effective polls -generally regular to somewhat bad- to promote their institutions (universities, agencies) or to show the tip of the iceberg and try to sell the deeper and more real results to those willing to pay for them.

I appreciate your answer, and I understand that different polling questions lead to different results, but it is not clear to me how you make adjustments aside from your own gut reactions.

Again, I'm not accusing you of misreporting poll numbers, but when you claim that the "real" numbers should be a few points this way or that, it seems to be a purely personal judgment.

 

[The Atheist]

Did this guy used to post here?

https://twitter.com/writeintrump?lang=en

Not sure, but his dad used to.

 

[PartSkeptic]

Disagree entirely.

If Trump wins, it will be because a majority of voters are barking mad and unaware of the consequences.

Exactly like Brexit.

Elitist!

 

[PartSkeptic]

Trump said Obama was born in the USA (finally).

Why is questioning Obama's credentials racist?

Is it because he is Black?

Is it because there is an unwritten rule about inter-race and inter-faith criticism? The one that says when a Gentile criticizes a Jewish person (or Israel) they are automatically antisemitic?

Many here claim to use logic, not emotion. Can anyone explain the logic of it without using bigoted and biased slurs.

 

[jimbob]

Trump said Obama was born in the USA (finally).

Why is questioning Obama's credentials racist?

Is it because he is Black?

Is it because there is an unwritten rule about inter-race and inter-faith criticism? The one that says when a Gentile criticizes a Jewish person (or Israel) they are automatically antisemitic?

Many here claim to use logic, not emotion. Can anyone explain the logic of it without using bigoted and biased slurs.

It's because he kept pushing the issue well after it had been settled. He promoted bizarre conspiracy theories to explain away the first birth certificate, so he wasn't questioning his eligibility as much as asserting that Obama was ineligible.

You can also look at it in the context of Trump's wider behaviour, which includes a history of acknowledged racial discrimination going back forty years.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/08/28/us/politics/donald-trump-housing-race.html

 

[PartSkeptic]

Aside for the distractions (does Hillary do anything else these days?)

The main reason Trump will win is his recognition (and Bernie's) that globalization is broken. American jobs, jobs, jobs.

He also recognizes that the financial system has not recovered and that there is massive toxic debt (which banks call "assets" at their assessment of "market value").

Here is some reading for those who have any interest in an alternative point of view.

BTW - There are a number of international opinions supporting the premise that globalization promised benefits for all, but produced massively skewed wealth for some countries and particularly for the super-rich.


http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/full-transcript-trump-job-plan-speech-224891

…Our politicians have aggressively pursued a policy of globalization - moving our jobs, our wealth and our factories to Mexico and overseas.

Globalization has made the financial elite who donate to politicians very wealthy. But it has left millions of our workers with nothing but poverty and heartache.

Stephen Roach Says Trump's Right On Globalization: It's A Broken System
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...-trumps-right-globalization-its-broken-system

Globalization's Broken Promise
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/econo.../globalization-has-had-political-consequences

Trump's anti-globalization message resonates in 'forgotten' Pennsylvania town
http://www.pri.org/stories/2016-07-...ti-globalization-message-resonates-struggling

 

[Porpoise of Life]

(wrong thread)

 

[The Great Zaganza]

PartSkeptic,

I agree that the US has managed globalization badly, namely by putting all its faith into trans-national companies instead of maintaining a solid base of medium-sized companies at home.

But what in the seven hells makes people think that Trump would have any incentive to change that, let alone the expertise to do so?
If the corpocracy is the problem, then Trump is an insider who (as far as we know) hasn't paid taxes in decades. Why would he change that?

 

[PartSkeptic]

It is not only globalization but US banking. The world is still on the edge of depression with interest rates at near zero. Fear, fear, fear.

Trump has the common sense (business sense) to recognize that something must be done. Even at the expense of short term pain (mostly for the rich and the banksters).

The road to Trump’s rise — big banks behaving badly

http://dailytimes.com.pk/business/16-Sep-16/the-road-to-trumps-rise-big-banks-behaving-badly

…Eight years ago Wednesday, Lehman Brothers collapsed into bankruptcy. To stem the panic, the feds launched the biggest bailout the world has ever seen. In rewarding failure, America allowed a broken, corrupt financial system to flourish — and, yes, has invited populists like Donald Trump to take the stage.

The latest example of how greed is not good, especially when it’s backstopped by government guarantees: Last week, federal regulators revealed that Wells Fargo, the country’s third-largest bank, had opened 1.5 million bank accounts and 565,000 credit-card accounts without customers’ permission over the past five years.

How could that happen? At least 5,300 workers engaged in what the government calls “abusive” acts: using a customer’s personal information from one legitimate account to open another one, and then taking money from the real account to put it into the fake one. Workers went so far as to create fake e-mail addresses and PIN numbers.

…Yep, Wells Fargo is too big to fail — which is why the government allows it to pay its fines without admitting wrongdoing.

Regulators have allowed banks to do this over and over since 2008, and it’s a strange practice on both sides: If the government thinks Wells Fargo did all of these horrible things, why doesn’t it try to prove it in a court of law?

And if Wells Fargo doesn’t think it did these bad things, why doesn’t it try to defend its reputation? Wells Fargo wasn’t quite so big before 2008. In 2007, the bank had $520.8 billion in assets. Today, it has $1.7 trillion.

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles...p-align-with-warren-sanders-against-big-banks

…Though he has repeatedly labeled them "goofy" and "crazy," presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump appears ready to join ranks with progressives like Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in calls for the return of a Depression-era banking bill designed to handcuff America's largest financial institutions.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Again, talking about it is one thing, but how is Trump the right candidate to fix it?

Trump owes a group consisting of Goldman, Bank of China, UBS and Deutsche Bank almost $1 billion, secured by the Trump Tower.
I bet Deutsche Bank is delaying paying its current fine because it thinks it can pressure a President Trump to let it off the hook.

All of Trump's businesses are so heavily leveraged that he can not go against the financial industries without risking his entire empire.

 

[aleCcowaN]

I appreciate your answer, and I understand that different polling questions lead to different results, but it is not clear to me how you make adjustments aside from your own gut reactions.

Again, I'm not accusing you of misreporting poll numbers, but when you claim that the "real" numbers should be a few points this way or that, it seems to be a purely personal judgment.

There's a lot of criteria that comes from experience and is taught from experience.I won't discuss my background because it's lengthy, more confusing than illuminating, and we are in the universe of fora so there're no guarantees. Besides, I'm not claiming to be a skilled expert in this specific field, but be sure I'm the guy others turn to asking "can you explain this for me" or "do you think this research was properly done". Not clear if it is for my expertise, charm or just because I'm the only one at hand or cheap enough.

I can assure you that the corrections I make in my mind are either common in the trade or I deal with them as hypothesis that have to be reasonably confirmed by other means. I confess that I call "fake" everything I find to have defects of be in bad shape. I'm using my native slang in that, and that's confusing. What it's clear is that, wallowing on numbers, I'm happier than a hog in the mud.

 

[aleCcowaN]

Why is questioning Obama's credentials racist?

Because "alien" is proxy for "black" (Obama) or "hispanic" (Cruz). It's the "he's not one of us, you can feel it in your skin" card.

I understood that instantly years ago when Trump asked the birth certificate, and that, being me from a different country, culture and language (Look for any of my posts here in 2009 and tell me if you can understand what I'm saying).