Brexit: the referendum

[The Don]

This writer argues that EU membership costs Britain more than it gains (the person responding doesn't make much of a counter-case):
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/six-best-reasons-vote-leave/

This article highlights one of the points that I haven't been able to rally get a proper explanation about and still fails explain it - how has the EU prevented the UK from exporting to the rest of the world, and how will it be better once we have left the EU ?

So taking the first part:

It’s a costly failure. In 2006, the EU was taking 55 per cent of our exports; last year, it was down to 45 per cent. What will it be in 2030 — or 2050

The proportion of UK exports (it's not clear whether this includes oil) going to the rest of the world has increased significantly in the last 10 years - I don't see how this supports the claim that the EU is stifling UK exports to the rest of the world.

Now let's look at the the bit about tariffs....

We have always been especially badly penalised by the EU’s Common External Tariff. Unlike Switzerland, which enjoys free trade with the EU at the same time as striking agreements with China and other growing economies, we must contract out our trade policy to a European commissioner — at present, as it happens, a former sociology lecturer from Sweden.

Let's for a moment ignore the fact that, in order to get that "sweet" trade agreement with China that Switzerland has to make large per-capita contributions to the EU and that it has to allow the free movement of EU citizens - which means that the UK operating under the same model would still have the "costs" associated with EU membership without the ability to influence EU policy.

Let us also ignore the fact that, post Brexit, the UK would have to renegotiate all its trade agreements and bear the full administrative costs of doing so (and during the years while the negotiation is under way not have a working trade agreement in force).

Let's also ignore the unnecessary swipe at the EU trade commissioner. It's unbelievable that he personally would make the judgement, but rather his team of experts, so his past job is irrelevant - will the minister in charge post-Brexit be any more qualified ?

No, let's just consider those trade barriers. As an "innie" I'm happy with the idea of free trade but it seems that the Brexiters seem to think that our trade imbalance will be reversed by allowing China freer access to our markets.

 

[Roofgardener]

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I have not yet heard a clear, direct answer to that question....

Currently, we cannot open direct trade negotiations with any country that already has a trade agreement with the European Union. It is similar to the situation whereby we have a seat on the World Trade Organisation, but are not allowed to USE it, (or vote) because the EU also has a seat... so everything has to be routed through the EU.

All of which is entirely reasonable, in my opinion.

Whether these facts support a Brexit - or the opposite - I have no idea. I guess the "Brexit" thinking is that we could negotiate an independent trade deal with some of these countries that is more favourable to UK interests than the one we currently get through the aggregate collective EU deal.

"Hmmmm"

 

[The Don]

Currently, we cannot open direct trade negotiations with any country that already has a trade agreement with the European Union. It is similar to the situation whereby we have a seat on the World Trade Organisation, but are not allowed to USE it, (or vote) because the EU also has a seat... so everything has to be routed through the EU.

All of which is entirely reasonable, in my opinion.

Whether these facts support a Brexit - or the opposite - I have no idea. I guess the "Brexit" thinking is that we could negotiate an independent trade deal with some of these countries that is more favourable to UK interests than the one we currently get through the aggregate collective EU deal.

"Hmmmm"

I've heard it said many, many times but I have yet to see any concrete examples of where the UK is significantly disadvantaged by being an EU member AND where there's a reason to assume that we could negotiate a better separate deal.

For example, the EU is being blamed for the (lack of) steel tariffs which mean that China has "destroyed the UK steel market through dumping" but the UK itself vetoed higher EU tariffs for Chinese steel because we wanted to keep the Chinese sweet.....

 

[ceptimus]

One specific example is the 10% tarriff imposed on cars and auto parts imported from japan, and a 14% tarriff on some electronic items.

Bicycles imported from China, Cambodia, Pakistan and the Philippines carry an EU 'anti dumping duty' of 48.5%

There are many other examples. Remember that the EU is a customs union - this is partly what has led to its stagnating growth over the last twenty years when compared to the rest of the world.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I see the latest Brexit lie is that we discriminate against non-EU immigrants by allowing EU folk to come here freely. Of course our non-EU immigration policy has been defined and tightened by the Tories in recent years. It's NOTHING to do with the EU but simply right wing anti-immigration policies doing exactly what they say on the tin.

 

[SusanB-M1]

All this week on BBC Radio 4 at midday for 15 minutes there is a programme called 'More or Less' which has all the facts - well worth listening to.

 

[The Don]

One specific example is the 10% tarriff imposed on cars and auto parts imported from japan, and a 14% tarriff on some electronic items.

Bicycles imported from China, Cambodia, Pakistan and the Philippines carry an EU 'anti dumping duty' of 48.5%

And reducing those "anti-dumping" tariffs helps UK exports in what way ?

There are many other examples. Remember that the EU is a customs union - this is partly what has led to its stagnating growth over the last twenty years when compared to the rest of the world.

The EU is far more than a customs union. You are choosing to portray it in such limited terms to make your point. I'm not sure how much of Europe's problems can be laid at the door of the EU and how much are down to it containing a comparatively large proportion of mature, post-industrial economies. Japan isn't in the EU and its growth has hardly been stellar over the last 30 years

 

[ceptimus]

I see the latest Brexit lie...

I see that the latest Remain lie is that it will be much more difficult to go on holidays to Europe if we vote to leave the EU. This from Alan Johnson in a BBC TV interview today - although I've not been able to find a text version of it anywhere yet.

 

[ceptimus]

And reducing those "anti-dumping" tariffs helps UK exports in what way ?

It works like this. After Brexit we negotiate to drop our tarriffs on stuff we import from Japan, China, etc. The immediate benefit is that British consumers will be able to buy cheaper cars, bicycles and other stuff. There may be a benefit to our exporters if Japan, China, etc. reciprocate by lowering any tarriffs they levy on stuff they import from us: Scotch Whisky, high value textiles, Jaguar and Land Rover cars, etc.

 

[Nessie]

If the UK leaves the EU then we will have to decide and then renegotiate our membership or not of numerous organisations including the Customs Union. The Brexiters assume we will be able to negotiate a perfect for the UK membership solution, when there is no such thing.

As it stands the UK has been able to use its power within to decide which parts suit and which do not with our opt outs. It is not perfect, but nothing is.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipe..._European_Bodies_with_NATO_members-en.svg.png

 

[Nessie]

It works like this. After Brexit we negotiate to drop our tarriffs on stuff we import from Japan, China, etc. The immediate benefit is that British consumers will be able to buy cheaper cars, bicycles and other stuff. There may be a benefit to our exporters if Japan, China, etc. reciprocate by lowering any tarriffs they levy on stuff they import from us: Scotch Whisky, high value textiles, Jaguar and Land Rover cars, etc.

All of which may or may not happen as hoped and may or may not be beneficial to the UK as a whole. Reducing/raising tariffs can benefit oner part of UK PLC whilst harming another at the same time.

I have not seen an argument, let alone evidence that shows the UK on its own can negotiate better tariff deals than the EU with its far greater size.

 

[ceptimus]

I have not seen an argument, let alone evidence that shows the UK on its own can negotiate better tariff deals than the EU with its far greater size.

Here's one. The EU renegotiation with Japan was supposed to be finished about a year ago, but has been held up by Italy arguing about the import of tomatoes. I think the tomatoes come from Morocco or somewhere, not Japan, but Italy is stalling the renegotiation in order to get what it wants. There are countless examples if only you take off your blinkers and look for them.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I see that the latest Remain lie is that it will be much more difficult to go on holidays to Europe if we vote to leave the EU. This from Alan Johnson in a BBC TV interview today - although I've not been able to find a text version of it anywhere yet.

I don't know what he said but the fact is that if we leave the EU it will be more difficult. Whether it will be 'much' more difficult I don't know it may only be marginally more difficult and not really worth worrying about.

That seems a very different category of 'lie' to pretending that the EU is causing things that your government actually did itself for it's own political reasons.

 

[SusanB-M1]

The chris Mason 5:30 p.m. slot on the Radio 4 PM programme showed its bias again today. Well, I certainly think so anyway - far more time was given to the leavers than the remainers.

Mutter, mutter, grumble, grumble!

 

[Lothian]

I don't know what he said but the fact is that if we leave the EU it will be more difficult. Whether it will be 'much' more difficult I don't know it may only be marginally more difficult and not really worth worrying about.

That seems a very different category of 'lie' to pretending that the EU is causing things that your government actually did itself for it's own political reasons.

It will certainly be physically more difficult. We will no longer be in the European fast track queues to get through immigration. We might also need to complete visas. Obviously our European health card will be useless. We will no longer get free healthcare, we will have to pay and claim it back on our insurance.

 

[Lothian]

It will certainly be physically more difficult. We will no longer be in the European fast track queues to get through immigration. We might also need to complete visas. Obviously our European health card will be useless. We will no longer get free healthcare, we will have to pay and claim it back on our insurance.

I would also add that Air passenger Duty is 1/2 price to EU countries as opposed to non EU European countries. I imagine that would double as opposed to non EU countries halving. The EU recently forced mobile phone companies to charge the same rate for EU calls as domestic. Free of the EU it could easily go back to 30 p a minute extra. Obviously the widely expected devaluation of the pound will make everything in Europe (and elsewhere) more expensive.
So overall I think the statement "I see that the latest Remain lie is that it will be much more difficult to go on holidays to Europe if we vote to leave the EU" is wrong. It is not a lie. It will be more difficult and more expensive (which also makes it more difficult).

 

[ceptimus]

If your doom-laden fearful predictions are correct then it will boost the British economy by encouraging the British to take their holidays at home instead of spending their money in foreign countries.

The devaluation of the pound you're predicting would also encourage more foreign tourists to visit us: Britain is seen as an expensive holiday destination now but after your devaluation a holiday here would be cheaper for foreigners - so another boost for our economy.

And of course your devalued pound prediction would also boost our exports and deter imports leading to an improved balance of payments figure.

Your next mission, should you choose to accept it, is to remainsplain why a devalued pound would actually lead to less tourists coming here, and would harm our exports.

 

[Lothian]

Your next mission, should you choose to accept it, is to remainsplain why a devalued pound would actually lead to less tourists coming here, and would harm our exports.

I take your silence as your acceptance that holidays abroad will be more expensive.
Of course a devalued pound could boost exports, however it makes imports more expensive and signifys a struggling economy, but don't take my word, read why the Economist thinks devaluation is not something to celebrate. Moodys and Fitch don't even see a guarenteed export. boost. See their remainsplain why but it seems to depend on getting back all the things we lose from leaving.

 

[CapelDodger]

If your doom-laden fearful predictions are correct then it will boost the British economy by encouraging the British to take their holidays at home instead of spending their money in foreign countries.

If British people take foreign holidays it's because they prefer them. This encouragement" is not going to change that preference, they'll just have to settle for second-best.

The devaluation of the pound you're predicting would also encourage more foreign tourists to visit us: Britain is seen as an expensive holiday destination now but after your devaluation a holiday here would be cheaper for foreigners - so another boost for our economy.

Ah yes, Englandland, that's our future.

The tourist industry is notoriously low-paid, low-skilled, seasonal and casual.

And of course your devalued pound prediction would also boost our exports and deter imports leading to an improved balance of payments figure.

British people would have to pay higher prices or accept lower quality.

Your next mission, should you choose to accept it, is to remainsplain why a devalued pound would actually lead to less tourists coming here, and would harm our exports.

You might want to explain why this outweighs the costs to the British people.

 

[CapelDodger]

And reducing those "anti-dumping" tariffs helps UK exports in what way ?

It's not that the UK might do that, the more exalted point is that the UK would have the requisite sovereignty to do it if it wanted.

The EU is far more than a customs union. You are choosing to portray it in such limited terms to make your point. I'm not sure how much of Europe's problems can be laid at the door of the EU and how much are down to it containing a comparatively large proportion of mature, post-industrial economies. Japan isn't in the EU and its growth has hardly been stellar over the last 30 years

That's a sound comparison. Comparisons with such economies as China, India and Vietnam are, of course, not.

I imagine that, for maximum effect, growth rates since 2008 are the favoured option.