CBO: Obamacare costs revised downward, again. Finds lower than expected premiums.

[Peephole]

Relative to their previous projections, CBO and JCT now estimate that the ACA’s coverage provisions will result in lower net costs to the federal government: The agencies now project a net cost of $36 billion for 2014, $5 billion less than the previous projection for the year; and $1,383 billion for the 2015–2024 period, $104 billion less than the previous projection.

...

Those estimates address only the insurance coverage pro-visions of the ACA, which do not generate all of the act’s budgetary effects. Many other provisions, on net, are expected to reduce budget deficits. Considering all of the provisions—including the coverage provisions— CBO and JCT estimated in July 2012 (their most recent comprehensive estimate) that the ACA’s overall effect would be to reduce federal deficits.

...

CBO and JCT estimate that the average cost of individual policies for the second-lowest-cost “silver” plan in the exchanges—the benchmark for determining exchange subsidies—is about $3,800 in 2014. That estimate represents a national average, and it reflects CBO and JCT’s projections of the age, sex, health status, and geographic distribution of those who will obtain coverage through the exchanges in 2014. That benchmark premium is projected to rise slightly in 2015, to about $3,900, and then to rise more rapidly thereafter, reaching about $4,400 in 2016 and about $6,900 in 2024. Thus, premiums are projected to increase by about 6 percent per year, on average, from 2016 to 2024. The current projection of the average premium for the benchmark silver plan in 2016 of about $4,400 is 15 percent below the comparable estimate of $5,200 published by CBO in November 2009.

...

Despite projecting that slightly more people will receive insurance coverage through exchanges over the 2015–2024 period than they had anticipated previously, CBO and JCT project that costs for exchange subsidies and related spending will be $164 billion (or 14 percent) below the previous projection, mainly because of the downward revision to expected exchange premiums.

http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/45231-ACA_Estimates.pdf

Thanks Obama.

 

[tyr_13]

Good news.

 

[thaiboxerken]

They're cooking the books!!!!

 

[Unabogie]

Crickets.

 

[ehcks]

They're cooking the books!!!!

What's this about cook books in a healthcare thread?

Soylent Green is people?

 

[332nd]

What's this about cook books in a healthcare thread?

Soylent Green is people?

Now that you mention it, I'm actually a little surprised that the far right never brought up the "Soylent Green" argument against Obamacare

 

[jj]

BENGHAZI!!!!!!!!
HILLARY!!!!!!!!!!!
COWS POACH GRASS!!!!!!!


BUT OBAMA!

 

[MattusMaximus]

UNSKEW THE POLLS!!11!!1

 

[MattusMaximus]

Now that you mention it, I'm actually a little surprised that the far right never brought up the "Soylent Green" argument against Obamacare

Of course they did... what do you think was going to be done with all the victims of the "death panels"?

 

[12AX7]

Crickets.

I saw a few tumbleweeds roll by...

BENGHAZI!!!!!!!!
HILLARY!!!!!!!!!!!
COWS POACH GRASS!!!!!!!


BUT OBAMA!

UNSKEW THE POLLS!!11!!1

COMMUNISM!

SOCIALIST MEDICINE!

BIRTH CERTIFICATE!

COMING TO GET OUR GUNS!

 

[marplots]

I never said death panels wouldn't save a pile of cash. I just didn't like the idea they'd get to me someday.

 

[Unabogie]

I never said death panels wouldn't save a pile of cash. I just didn't like the idea they'd get to me someday.

Some day? I heard at the cabal meeting that you were slated for tomorrow!



I've said too much.

 

[SezMe]

No kidding. Now you've been assigned marplots slot.

 

[marplots]

Hey. No cutting in line.

 

[Beeyon]

From the Same CBO Report:

Effects of the Characteristics of Exchange Plans: The plans being offered through exchanges in 2014 appear to have, in general, lower payment rates for providers, narrower networks of providers, and tighter management of their subscribers’ use of health care than employment-based plans do. Those features allow insurers that offer plans through the exchanges to charge lower premiums.

Obviously not an indictment of Obamacare, but worth noting.

Edit:

Also, the same paragraph mentions that those characteristics are expected to fade out over the next few years. Along with the unexpectedly low premiums.

 

[Corsair 115]

What's this about cook books in a healthcare thread?

Soylent Green is people?

No, no. The cook book was called "To Serve Man".

 

[Emily's Cat]

From the Same CBO Report:


Obviously not an indictment of Obamacare, but worth noting.

Edit:

Also, the same paragraph mentions that those characteristics are expected to fade out over the next few years. Along with the unexpectedly low premiums.

Yes... but they're not expecting high rate increases to bring those "unexpectedly low" premiums back up to the norm...

 

[sunmaster14]

Well, I just got my renewal notice from Blue Cross Blue Shield of MA. My health insurance premiums are rising 27%.

Here are my insurance premiums for the last few years (note that I added my business partner's family to the plan in 2014, and he's much younger than I, so it averaged down the premiums for my small business plan):

$1,156.60 (2012)
$1,262.56 (2013)
$1,220.09 (2014)
$1,342.29 (2015)
$1,708.43 (2016)

I'm not sure what's driving the huge increase this year, but I suspect it has to do with the losses BCBSMA is suffering on its Obamacare exchange plans, where people are gaming the system by signing up for insurance and either dropping it without paying a thing after 3 months, or paying for a while, getting a lot of health care, and then dropping it. People can play this game every year of course.

Who would have thought human beings would be so clever?

 

[Crossbow]

Well, I just got my renewal notice from Blue Cross Blue Shield of MA. My health insurance premiums are rising 27%.

Here are my insurance premiums for the last few years (note that I added my business partner's family to the plan in 2014, and he's much younger than I, so it averaged down the premiums for my small business plan):

$1,156.60 (2012)
$1,262.56 (2013)
$1,220.09 (2014)
$1,342.29 (2015)
$1,708.43 (2016)

I'm not sure what's driving the huge increase this year, but I suspect it has to do with the losses BCBSMA is suffering on its Obamacare exchange plans, where people are gaming the system by signing up for insurance and either dropping it without paying a thing after 3 months, or paying for a while, getting a lot of health care, and then dropping it. People can play this game every year of course.

Who would have thought human beings would be so clever?

It looks like more of a correction of some sort since your premiums decreased by about 3.5% in 2014, therefore I am not surprised that you see a sharp increase two years later.

 

[Spock Jenkins]

I do so love government budgeting where decreases in the rate of increase count as savings.