Bullish on Bernie: The Bernie Sanders 2016 Thread

[dudalb]

There was an image upthread that gave Hillary more delegates - in Michigan.

My bad.
My amazing was that some people were acting like Bernie just won a huge amount of delegates more then Clinton.
IMHO Bernie has to win outright,he has to go into the convention with more then Hilary to win. A brokered convention will end up with Hilary.

 

[lobosrul]

My bad.
My amazing was that some people were acting like Bernie just won a huge amount of delegates more then Clinton.
IMHO Bernie has to win outright,he has to go into the convention with more then Hilary to win. A brokered convention will end up with Hilary.

There is no chance of a brokered convention on the Dem side. Someone will have a majority of votes on the first cast.

 

[Donal]

Hah, what does that make Ted Cruz then?

A big zero

 

[Random]

There is no chance of a brokered convention on the Dem side. Someone will have a majority of votes on the first cast.

Really the only problem that might arise is if Bernie shows up at the convention with more ordinary delegates than Hillary, but Hillary has enough Superdelegates to win a majority. That is when the grand-poobahs of the DNC would need to do some serious soul-searching. Saying "Bernie has more Dem voter support, but we're giving the nom to Hillary anyway" could get ugly. Like, '68 ugly...

 

[Brainster]

Depends on how you look at it. The general election is decided by the middle. Doing well in red states suggests she might perform well with the middle.

Also, Nevada is considered a battle ground state, which she won handily.

I don't think you can get a strong inkling one way or the other from Hillary's performance in red states or a Republican's in blue states as to how they're going to fare in the general. With the exception of New Hampshire, very few independents vote in the primaries, and so you're mostly looking at the base.

 

[Belz...]

What is mind boggling to me is how some Sanders supporters would support Trump if Hilary gets the nomination. This is good example of the whole ":Let's Burn The House Down To Get Rid Of The Mice" mentality that seems to be gripping a lot of people.
It is frighitinly like that that gripped Germany in 1933.

I wouldn't go that far, but it is concerning. If he wins the presidency, I have no idea what'll happen.

 

[BenBurch]

There is no chance of a brokered convention on the Dem side. Someone will have a majority of votes on the first cast.

Don't be so sure. Sanders is preparing for a floor fight.

 

[dudalb]

Let's assume the the GOP establishment, but pulling every dirty trick in the book;stop Trump;it goes to a brokered convention,they nominate Rubio or Kasich,and somehow manage to keep Trump from running as an Indy.(I admit the last statement is the one I find most difficult to believe happening).
How does that change the General election basics? IMHO Rubio or Kasich would find it easier to paint Bernie as a left wing wackjob then it would Hilary.

 

[dudalb]

Don't be so sure. Sanders is preparing for a floor fight.

Playing right into the GOP's hands.

 

[luchog]

I don't think you can get a strong inkling one way or the other from Hillary's performance in red states or a Republican's in blue states as to how they're going to fare in the general. With the exception of New Hampshire, very few independents vote in the primaries, and so you're mostly looking at the base.

Less true in this primary, actually. In fact, Independents are turning out in record numbers in states with open or hybrid primaries, according to the news reports I've been hearing on the radio.

 

[BenBurch]

Playing right into the GOP's hands.

You assume the GOP has any plans whatsoever to play into. You are looking at collapse over there.

 

[luchog]

You assume the GOP has any plans whatsoever to play into. You are looking at collapse over there.

Seriously, there is nothing left to the GOPs plans except "OMGSTOPTRUMP!!!HE'SGOINGTODESTROYUSALL!!!"

The Republican party is in complete meltdown at this point. Even Christie is clearly regretting dropping out and supporting Trump.

 

[dudalb]

Seriously, there is nothing left to the GOPs plans except "OMGSTOPTRUMP!!!HE'SGOINGTODESTROYUSALL!!!"

The Republican party is in complete meltdown at this point. Even Christie is clearly regretting dropping out and supporting Trump.

And they are in this situation because they underestimated Trump and thought he would be easy to defeat.
Some of the Democrats are making the exact same mistake.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Don't be so sure. Sanders is preparing for a floor fight.

On what basis?

 

[BenBurch]

On what basis?

Connections.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Connections.

What does that mean? Come on Ben, wait for the voters to speak. Stop with the fantasy that the voting is rigged when there is no evidence of it.

 

[BenBurch]

And they are in this situation because they underestimated Trump and thought he would be easy to defeat.
Some of the Democrats are making the exact same mistake.

Opposite problem.

They assumed Clinton was strong and would be impossible to defeat.

 

[BenBurch]

What does that mean? Come on Ben, wait for the voters to speak. Stop with the fantasy that the voting is rigged when there is no evidence of it.

You misunderstand me. A floor fight is when there is no first or second round choice and you use your power bloc to attempt to convince enough now-freed delegates to your side. The side that can hold together without defections is usually the side that wins. There are materials and strategies being formulated to do just that. This often involves a single state's delegation and a VP pick of a "favorite son."

 

[luchog]

And they are in this situation because they underestimated Trump and thought he would be easy to defeat.
Some of the Democrats are making the exact same mistake.

Not really. The GOP clearly thought that Clinton had a lock on the Democrat nomination, and would be too difficult to beat following Obama's presidency, so were not putting serious effort into their candidate process, expecting machine politics to prevail for both parties.

They were utterly unprepared for the populist appeal of either Sanders or Trump, and still do not take Sanders seriously as a candidate, as shown by their continuing focus on Clinton. They are finally taking Trump seriously, after a large number of high-profile wins, but probably too late at this point. It is highly likely that they will have to resort to some shady back-room politics to avoid a Trump nomination. The fact that Rubio is still in the game is hurting Cruz far more than it is hurting Trump, they need both him and Kaisch to drop out and throw their delegate support behind Cruz in order to have a chance at preventing Trump from being nominated.

 

[Tony Stark]

There are 4051 pledged delegates total and thus one needs 2026 to get a majority of them.

According to 538, Hillary and Bernie have 770 and 551 pledged delegates, respectively.

4051-770-551 = 2730 delegates up for grabs.

2026-551 = 1475 more delegates required for Bernie to get a majority.

1475/2730 = 54%, the portion of the remaining pledged delegates that Bernie needs to get a majority of them.

I guess it isn't impossible but it is very seems very unlikely. In fact it seems that his most plausible path to winning the nomination involves a disproportionate number of superdelegates picking him over Hillary.