Why speculate when we know at least one?
I think that everyone is missing the real conspiracy in the space race. Werner von Braun actually believed, and convinced others, that one nation could conquer the world with Space Technology.
Werner was a very strong believer in preemptive strikes. He was constantly writing about how there would be missiles from the East striking if the U.S. didn't strike first. He was very much interested in the science and technology for civilan applications. He would probably be disgusted with the International Space Station orbiting the planet right now. The Space Station that he envisioned was a weapon that no one could defend against.
This can be confirmed reading his novel about a flight to Mars. Also his articles describing the bad things that could happen to the U.S. if we don't develop missiles first (and use them).
Warner von Braun basically intimidated John F. Kennedy with the 'Red threat'. The Nazi scientists and their families basically lived off the Red Menace. Not only that. He made jobs for Nazi scientists and their families in the USSR.
Werner presented the idea of the United States of Earth. He really had the idea that the United States of America could conquer the world, or at least hold on to it, using a Space Station.
There is little doubt that he presented the same exciting vision to Hitler. Now, Braun tempered down the genocidal implications upon coming to the United States. The United States of Earth was supposed to give everyone in the world a vote. I doubt that Braun told Hitler that everyone in the world would get a vote.
Werner was not a homicidal psychopath, like many of his fellow SS officers. Werner was an opportunist, using every opportunity for personal and family ambition. I don't think that he was an out and out racist, though some of what he writes is tinged with Eugenics ideology. However, he really believed in the Nietze Superman. Hey, there are lots of Jews who think the same way!
There were other military groups that were going to develop space exploration. After Sputnik went up, the Navy got a satellite out. However, that was more on the lines of military intelligence and communication. The idea of huge missiles with payloads dropped on people was very much in his dreams.
The real winners of the Space Race were the Nazi scientists, engineers and technicians and their families. If there weren't real missiles and real rockets being built, and real technology being developed, these people would haven't gotten money and social acceptance in our society.
So I think in the moon conspiracists are wrong in that they haven't followed the money. The money did not go to politicians. The money did not go to 'shadow governments'. It went to the industries that made the parts. It went to the scientists and engineers. The military industrial complex was driving it, not the politicians per se. Yep, it was the Nazis!
The entire Space Race, from the standpoint of the German scientists who came to the U.S. and Russia, was a conspiracy to conquer the world Werner was a great Rain Maker, not an ivory tower academic.
Werner wouldn't have approved of a conspiracy to fake the moon landings because it would not be a stable source of money. He and a lot of officials, including Kennedy, probably had this idea of conquering the world. They weren't pretending.
Faking a moon landing would make a 'preemptive' strike on Moscow much harder. The Russians would be so prepared when Apollo touched down. However, the real technology would not be there. Now, actually landing on the moon would be okay because the technology would be in place.
