Global warming discussion IV

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Arnold Martin said:
This just in ....

...... a MATHEMATICAL discovery by Perth-based electrical engineer Dr David Evans may change everything about the climate debate, .....

...... A former climate modeller for the Government’s Australian Greenhouse Office, with six degrees in applied mathematics, Dr Evans has unpacked the architecture of the basic climate model which underpins all climate science.

.......... over-estimated future global warming by as much as 10 times, he says.

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/...k=eed4d6e8bc5dab0dbe9f6380ea63cbce-1444069897
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Ah yes, Joanne Whorley Nova's hubby, how's his success at publishing this three decade old "new discovery"/pipe-dream going these days?
 
Reality Check said:
[*]Solar activity has been decreasing over the last 35 years while global warming has accelerated. It is only been surface temperatures that did not increase as much as expected over the last decade or so. And that looks like it has finished because 2014 was one of the warmest years on record, 2015 is looking to be even warmer.
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Just a nitpick. It isn't that the temperatures didn't increase as much as expected, but that the natural fluctuation put 00's above the trend, and the early 10's a bit below. The long time trend puts us squarely where we expected in 95.

 
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Also, six degrees in applied mathematics?

IF he was in the South African University system it would be:

Bsc: Applied Mathematics
Bsc: Honours in Applied Mathematics (we have a weird additional degree at your 4th year of studies)
Msc: Applied Mathematics
Phd: Applied Mathematics

And what then? Super-Phd in Applied Maths? Ultra-mega Phd in Applied maths?

Maybe it took him six years to get his degree instead?
 
Reality Check said:
ETA: David Evans credentials as a computer modeler or electric engineer are dubious - he has only published a single paper in 1987 about Fourier and Hartley transforms which looks like results from his PhD thesis (PhD in 1989).
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Ok, so... I've published more climate related research than he has?

(I have one research paper published on the use of Game Based Learning to teach Energy Management).

The lack of real credentials amongst the deniers favoured "scientists" is telling at this point.
 
Reality Check said:
An electrical engineer displaying his ignorance of climate science reported in a newspaper!
Notice how the reporter is reporting on a series of blog posts - "He has been summarising his results in a series of blog posts on his wife Jo Nova’s blog for climate sceptics.". There are a couple of submitted papers in peer review in an unnamed journal.

Notice how the reporter does not ask any actual climate scientists about the results - they drink the Kool-Aid without verifying their source.

Any knowledgeable peer reviewer is likely to reject the papers since they would know that
  • Climate sensitivity is not derived from modeling alone - there are many independent measurements of the response of the climate to drivers.
  • Solar activity has been decreasing over the last 35 years while global warming has accelerated. It is only been surface temperatures that did not increase as much as expected over the last decade or so. And that looks like it has finished because 2014 was one of the warmest years on record, 2015 is looking to be even warmer.

ETA: David Evans credentials as a computer modeler or electric engineer are dubious - he has only published a single paper in 1987 about Fourier and Hartley transforms which looks like results from his PhD thesis (PhD in 1989).
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Reality Check the display of ignorance is yours and it's breath-taking. I'm sure that Richard Feynman would agree with me. In real-world science and engineering it's results that count, not "credentials", in contradistinction to the value-destroying academic club*. For example, in 1961, someone whom I know very well, with no engineering credentials at all, solved two design deficiency problems of the DC3. These problems had been known for more than 20 years before he was exposed to them. Thousands of managers and engineers had known of the problems and desired solutions but none had been produced despite all the credentials. He, stupid "climate denier" that he is, according to the third rate intellects of "earth science" academia, solved them in minutes.

Now the reason that I came to this sorry site. Everyone here should be calling for the sacking of Dr. Richard Keen, for not only is he posting on the site that you all revile, but he is indulging in collegiate, even friendly, discourse with the half-wits who infest it. He must be stopped.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/10/...s-a-sign-of-global-cooling-in-the-atmosphere/

Trakar, I see from your response that I correctly inferred(from one spurious apostrophe) that English is not your native language. Would I be correct in inferring that you have your snout in the AGW trough? My guess is yes.


*One not-random example: Dr Andrew Smedley, a one man value destruction centre. Check the publication record below.

http://www.seaes.manchester.ac.uk/people/staff/profile/?ea=Andrew.Smedley&pg=4
 
acementhead said:
Now the reason that I came to this sorry site. Everyone here should be calling for the sacking of Dr. Richard Keen, for not only is he posting on the site that you all revile, but he is indulging in collegiate, even friendly, discourse with the half-wits who infest it. He must be stopped.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/10/...s-a-sign-of-global-cooling-in-the-atmosphere/
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Why would we ask for him to be sacked? He's an "instructor emeritus", and has published a total of five papers relating to climate, not all directly related to climate change, and several published more than 20 years ago.

He's also someone making demonstrably false statements, such as that the Earth is cooling. That would be more reason to ask for his dismissal than posting at that joke website Whatsupphisbutt, but again, he's a nobody in the academic world already.
 
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acementhead said:
Reality Check the display of ignorance is yours and it's breath-taking. ...
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Formally learning about a subject (credentials), working on that subject and publishing on that subject are what allows us to see that people have expertise on a subject.
David Evans has no credentials in, has not worked on and has never published on climate science. Thus it is not a surprise that he displays an abysmal lack of knowledge of climate science, e.g. the couple of errors I pointed out:
  • Climate sensitivity is not derived from modeling alone - there are many independent measurements of the response of the climate to drivers.
  • Solar activity has been decreasing over the last 35 years while global warming has accelerated. It is only been surface temperatures that did not increase as much as expected over the last decade or so. And that looks like it has finished because 2014 was one of the warmest years on record, 2015 is looking to be even warmer.
We already know that Anthony Watts of WUWT is content to have his bloggers even lie about climate, e.g. Monckton's repeated lies about a pause in global warming by cherry picking datasets and start dates. So fantasies about science are expected. The title "Recent lunar eclipse reveals a sign of global cooling in the atmosphere" is basically a lie. The last darker than usual lunar eclipse is a measurement of the amount of ash in the atmosphere at the time of the eclipse. It is not a measurement of the amount of ash in the atmosphere over the period of decades that is considered to be climate (30 years is the standard). Dr. Richard Keen "emphasizes that this is a very small amount of cooling". I do not know what Keen's current position on climate change is (posting at WUWT is not promising) but back in 2008 he embarrassed himself with an ignorant quiz for his class: Climate Change and Picking Cherries with Richard Keen.

ETA: As uke2se points out Richard Keen is not a good example of a climate science expert. His experience is as a meteorologist as described by the Heartland Institute where he has been a speaker.
 
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Wow have not seen such a misguided load a tripe for a while. I'd say he's about as past best by date as Feynman is when blathering out his field.
At least he got his nick correct. No reality getting through to this one.:boggled:

Tell us ace ...does C02 absorb IR??
Can we have a demonstration of your knowledge allowing you to comment in a climate science thread?. :rolleyes:
 
Richard Keen now : is there any piece of old tat that won't be churned around as the denier world treads water? Better evidence of the lack of new blood we couldn't ask for. I think Judith Curry was the last recruit, that was some time back, lightweight, and not terribly new.
 
acementhead said:
...Trakar, I see from your response that I correctly inferred(from one spurious apostrophe) that English is not your native language. Would I be correct in inferring that you have your snout in the AGW trough? My guess is yes...
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Your guesses are undoubtedly as valid as your (apparent) understandings.

Though I do admit to saving a lot of money.
 
Climate change is a change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns when that change lasts for an extended period of time (i.e., decades to millions of years). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change

This is the start to all considerations of climate science,
 
Another month, another record high.

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for September 2015 was the highest for September in the 136-year period of record, at 0.90°C (1.62°F) above the 20th century average of 15.0°C (59.0°F), surpassing the previous record set last year in 2014 by 0.12°C (0.19°F). This marks the fifth consecutive month a monthly high temperature record has been set and is the highest departure from average for any month among all 1629 months in the record that began in January 1880.
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The first nine months of 2015 comprised the warmest such period on record across the world's land and ocean surfaces, at 0.85°C (1.53°F) above the 20th century average, surpassing the previous records of 2010 and 2014 by 0.12°C (0.21°F). Seven months this year, including the past five, have been record warm for their respective months.
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ETA link: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201509
 
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DavidJames said:
Nonsense, Trump tweeted it was cold in the northeast, take that you climate science shills :D
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Until he throws at least one snowball he still isn't dedicated enough. Building a snowman would certainly be enough to disprove all the scientific evidence though - or am I thinking of a strawman?

This is so confusing.
 
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