Greeks vote to reject incumbants, austerity

[CapelDodger]

Between the guy who's seen the future and the guy who's selling us one I think we're meant to pick the latter. I say bring on naked debate.

 

[aleCcowaN]

Here's Dijsselbloem negotiating these delicate matters

[puppy] Awwww!![/puppy]


The other side "se ha emperrado" (took a dogged stance) and won't listen.

 

[aleCcowaN]

And this guy is doing his bit to restore trust (not that he's wrong, but he conceals the "euro" thingy)

Greece debt crisis: reforms will fail, says ex-finance minister Yanis Varoufakis

Varoufakis says conditions imposed on Greece by creditors will ‘go down in history as the greatest disaster of macroeconomic management ever’

 

[psionl0]

I'm telling this to everyone: ...........<detailed "facts" snipped>..................

You are not even a Greek resident. How do you know so much about what is in the minds of the Greek PM and the Greek voters?

At least I speculate about how it has come down to this but you write as though you have been given a divine revelation about it all.

 

[bit_pattern]

You are not even a Greek resident. How do you know so much about what is in the minds of the Greek PM and the Greek voters?

At least I speculate about how it has come down to this but you write as though you have been given a divine revelation about it all.

His hyperbole aside, I think Alec has a pretty good grasp on the dynamics at play... That's probably just my confirmation bias speaking but at least he smacks down the herp-a-derp from some of the usual suspects here...

 

[aleCcowaN]

You are not even a Greek resident. How do you know so much about what is in the minds of the Greek PM and the Greek voters?

At least I speculate about how it has come down to this but you write as though you have been given a divine revelation about it all.

Sure, you place nationalities and location above species; nicely done, psionl0! I didn't expect any of a different quality from you. Here a supposed assertion showing how it works: "You are not Greek, so you can't know their heartbeats are about 75 per minute when in bed because they are a bit nervous. In fact, you don't even have a reason to think they are nervous, I speculate but, who do you think you are? a physician? If at least you were a Greek living in Canada or a Malaysian living in Corfu"

You're just applying the "I'm not reading this when I google, so it's a chance for me jump into polemics"

Care to comment about Prospect Theory? Or is it also wrong because of dozens of non-Greek authors? It isn't so easy to wiki or google it and feign a grasp, is it?

Contrary to what you usually do with all your «you write as though you have been given a divine revelation about it all» and general dismissing stances, this is all "hard copied" and the developments are in front of us, so we'll see very soon.

Why don't you refrain yourself of making assessments without specific knowledge, without method and without experience in the matter at hand? Why don't you get a book instead and learn something while the events develop and show what was wrong in what I said?

 

[Childlike Empress]

Why don't you refrain yourself of making assessments without specific knowledge, without method and without experience in the matter at hand? Why don't you get a book instead and learn something while the events develop and show what was wrong in what I said?

Why do you hate the internet?

 

[Childlike Empress]

German "insiders" of the "conspiracy theorist" variety predict that Schäuble will resign this week.

 

[aleCcowaN]

His hyperbole aside, I think Alec has a pretty good grasp on the dynamics at play... That's probably just my confirmation bias speaking but at least he smacks down some of the herp-a-derp from some of the usual suspects here...

No "hyperbole" pal. Very badly weighted up. You see me taming the beasts in other threads when they promise 4° of warming, or polar caps melting unstoppably, and Chinese markets crashing, and a lot of crap in the same lines and, do you think I chose this topic to throw a hyperbole?

I'm afraid you and others in this thread -and I don't mean the herp-a-derp usual suspects- have fallen for one of many human epistemological defects. For instance "important things should have important causes", so "conspiracy! and Lee Harvey Oswald was a patsy". I know you and most of the others don't fall for that. However, "human beings always have options" has exactly the same quality, or lack thereof. Use this, or combine it with the previous one and you get "Schäuble is doing business", "this can't go wrong when everybody is doing everything for it to go well, unless some malicious forces are throwing spanners and 'monkeys' in the works", "the problem is austerity", "vested interests", "lazy Greeks" and all the same old we've heard a million times.

Greece's economy is now nose diving. It's not a fault of the pilot. Not even a fault of the designer. There are no terrorists involved either. It's a combination of circumstances. The result: nose diving.

 

[aleCcowaN]

Why do you hate the internet?

 

[psionl0]

Sure, you place nationalities and location above species; nicely done, psionl0! I didn't expect any of a different quality from you. Here a supposed assertion showing how it works: "You are not Greek, so you can't know their heartbeats are about 75 per minute when in bed because they are a bit nervous. In fact, you don't even have a reason to think they are nervous, I speculate but, who do you think you are? a physician? If at least you were a Greek living in Canada or a Malaysian living in Corfu"
.............<remaining word salad snipped>.....................

That explains the minds of the Greeks perfectly! Er ... I think. Um, I don't know.

As usual, you obfuscate your point so thoroughly that your post becomes meaningless. That's what happens when you try to appear 10 time smarter than the average poster.

 

[aleCcowaN]

That's what happens when you try to appear 10 time smarter than the average poster.

Such an undertaking, in a language that is not mine, don't you think? So, what do you imagine the dispassionate average poster -there's no such thing- is going to think, behind two old men bickering? Is your « you try to appear 10 time smarter than the average poster» even plausible?

Don't think I don't acknowledge your MA "right" to be dismissive without even discussing or being even remotely connected to the topic. There are no intellectual goals here; I gather that. But don't think I have to accept your you-sound-cocky-and-you-aren't-even-there as an argument qualifying and correcting what I see happening in Greece in the near future.

I think that you post those kind of things because you know I wouldn't

If you want to pursue an on-topic endeavour and you don't like what I wrote you may:

1. Tell everybody what you think is gonna happen.
2. Tell why what I've said is wrong.
3. Mention what different notions are to be applied to the Greek crisis, all within the theoretical corpus, other than those I used, and why I shouldn't have used them.

Are you gonna play, and play fair?

 

[psionl0]

Such an undertaking, in a language that is not mine, don't you think? So, what do you imagine the dispassionate average poster -there's no such thing- is going to think, behind two old men bickering? Is your « you try to appear 10 time smarter than the average poster» even plausible?

Don't think I don't acknowledge your MA "right" to be dismissive without even discussing or being even remotely connected to the topic. There are no intellectual goals here; I gather that. But don't think I have to accept your you-sound-cocky-and-you-aren't-even-there as an argument qualifying and correcting what I see happening in Greece in the near future.

I think that you post those kind of things because you know I wouldn't

huh?

If you want to pursue an on-topic endeavour and you don't like what I wrote you may:

1. Tell everybody what you think is gonna happen.
2. Tell why what I've said is wrong.
3. Mention what different notions are to be applied to the Greek crisis, all within the theoretical corpus, other than those I used, and why I shouldn't have used them.

Are you gonna play, and play fair?

I could just say, "source?" instead.

 

[Frank Newgent]

Such an undertaking, in a language that is not mine, don't you think? So, what do you imagine the dispassionate average poster -there's no such thing- is going to think, behind two old men bickering? Is your « you try to appear 10 time smarter than the average poster» even plausible?

Don't think I don't acknowledge your MA "right" to be dismissive without even discussing or being even remotely connected to the topic. There are no intellectual goals here; I gather that. But don't think I have to accept your you-sound-cocky-and-you-aren't-even-there as an argument qualifying and correcting what I see happening in Greece in the near future.

I think that you post those kind of things because you know I wouldn't

huh?

If you want to pursue an on-topic endeavour and you don't like what I wrote you may:

1. Tell everybody what you think is gonna happen.
2. Tell why what I've said is wrong.
3. Mention what different notions are to be applied to the Greek crisis, all within the theoretical corpus, other than those I used, and why I shouldn't have used them.

Are you gonna play, and play fair?

I could just say, "source?" instead.

aleCcowaN wins.

 

[psionl0]

aleCcowaN wins.

I will just have to take your word for it.

If you want a more detailed response to the latter half of aleC's post then:

If you want to pursue an on-topic endeavour and you don't like what I wrote you may:

1. Tell everybody what you think is gonna happen.
   That's a job for the psychics. The best I can do is speculate on why Tsipras would go against the results of a referendum that he urged a NO vote for
2. Tell why what I've said is wrong.
   I don't know if it is wrong but conjecture is being presented as fact.
3. Mention what different notions are to be applied to the Greek crisis, all within the theoretical corpus, other than those I used, and why I shouldn't have used them.
   See above.

 

[McHrozni]

Varoufakis admits Greece "made mistakes".

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/07/20/world/amanpour-greece-yanis-varoufakis/index.html

If Nobel economics laureate Paul Krugman is to be understood correctly, electing Syriza was the latest in the series of mistakes they've made:

"They thought they could simply demand better terms without having any backup plan," Krugman told CNN's Fareed Zakaria. "So, certainly this is a shock."

McHrozni

 

[aleCcowaN]

Interesting that about the "plan B". I was reading Greek financial newspapers during the last 48 hours -why posting here if everything is happening there?- and they were commenting some event happened last January when Varoufakis was dining at a very posh restaurant and said in a very loud voice, an excess if he was going to address just the people at his table, that if they failed to get a better deal with the creditors they would let the banks go bankrupt and they would re-introduce the drachma. As you can imagine, faces turned ash grey all around the room. This was probably a rumour, but you know, rumours circulate unleashed and apparently nobody tried in the least to denied them. Certainly Varoufakis seems to me like the kind of guy who enjoys scaring "oligarchs" and justifies it as an obligation of his office and idealogical flavour of choice.

Krugman said recently there was no plan B and I believe him, in the sense, there was no systemic planning nor thorough analysis. An interview with Stiglitz was published today in ANA MPA (in Greek). Basically he says the plan means more economic hardship and misery and the Troika has created the worst conditions for reforms to succeed.

 

[LondonJohn]

I can completely believe that there never was even an attempt to draw up a "Plan B". It fits with everything we know about the shifty incompetence we've seen from senior Greek politicians, and with the way their country and its economy has been so catastrophically (mis)managed over the past dozen years or so.

I think Tsipras et al very probably had convinced themselves that the ECB was bound to write off most - if not all - of their outstanding debt. Indeed, I strongly suspect that their unwillingness to introduce most of the demanded austerity measures last year was predicated on the belief that "we'll get it all written off anyway, so why should we make ourselves suffer more than we need to before that - and by failing to implement the austerity measures we will make the problem bigger and more immediate, meaning that the ECB cannot fail to do the write-offs".

I think they put their entire pot "all-in" into a high-stakes hand of poker, where they had convinced themselves that the ECB (and the EU and Eurozone leaders) would have no choice but to fold in the face of the size and (potential) scope of the problem. They played a massive game of bluff, and it failed - so far.

That's not to say that the ECB and Eurozone might not fold at some point in the next 12 months, when the inevitable occurs and Greece runs out of money again (with even deeper civil unrest and an even more depressed economy). But if Greece had no "Plan B" before, they should damn well be working day-and-night into putting one together right now.

 

[aleCcowaN]

On the other hand, I see things set to fail really quickly. They are trying to complete all the "reforms in paper" way before August 20th so they have enough time to sign the third bailout before that date. The reforms to discuss at parliament level include for instance shrinking all gracious pensions and social bonuses. For instance, an insured worker's widow will get just €67 a month for every kind under-age. The same amount for people older than 67 that has not completed the number of years contributing for the pension system (that is, if you and your employer paid a good chunk of a good salary of yours during for instance 19 years, you are entitled €67 a month as a "favour" and no longer the €320 you got until this month).

All the reforms are equally draconian and they are trying to pass them quickly so they can negotiate a deal before that date. What happens then? There's a payment due to the ECB they definitively can't afford. The bridge loan is almost all expended. It is called a "bungee loan": the money was given firmly attached to a spring and it bounced back immediately to the IMF and ECB. They couldn't even warm it with the touch of their hands.

And why the rush? You can imagine, that day chickens are coming home to roost as the plan was set to fail from the very beginning (I'll be explaining in another post).

 

[aleCcowaN]

I think Tsipras et al very probably had convinced themselves that the ECB was bound to write off most - if not all - of their outstanding debt. Indeed, I strongly suspect that their unwillingness to introduce most of the demanded austerity measures last year was predicated on the belief that "we'll get it all written off anyway, so why should we make ourselves suffer more than we need to before that - and by failing to implement the austerity measures we will make the problem bigger and more immediate, meaning that the ECB cannot fail to do the write-offs".

I think everybody underestimate the complete inability of the political class to understand economy, everywhere, not just Greece. I failed to find the English equivalent for the word voluntarismo. It means the belief that "if we really want to do it, we'll manage to do it". Liberals think everything fixes by itself and pseudo-socialist think it's a matter of will and defeating the forces that opposes to popular success. Gilles Lipovetsky was so right when he wrote L'Empire de l'éphémère : la mode et son destin dans les sociétés modernes (1987) about fashion as a social logic of our times. Ideologies have become sort of a Hollywood product.

That's not to say that the ECB and Eurozone might not fold at some point in the next 12 months, when the inevitable occurs and Greece runs out of money again (with even deeper civil unrest and an even more depressed economy). But if Greece had no "Plan B" before, they should damn well be working day-and-night into putting one together right now.

Another rumour in Greek papers last weekend was about the Troika's Plan B. They supposedly gathered 15 specialists on June 26th to design a complete plan to kick Greece in the peloponesse and throw her from the EU. It sounds like Chinese whispers from what was discussed or suggested in a veiled way during those tense negotiations back in the day. It supposedly contains 200 answers on what to do (15 wise man, 200 answers ... 7 wives with 7 cats ... the typical). It included how to split Greece from the Schlengen Area.

Rumours fill the void the minute nothing is happening, or nothing is explained, or nothing makes sense.