Moderated JFK conspiracy theories: it never ends III

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Aha! Well, of course!
But I could have sworn you just said a minute ago that federal agents can't be trusted...
Funny that.

According to testimony, Deputy Mooney found the snipers nest in the SE corner of the 6th floor, with a paper parcel and three shell casings. Not long after this, Deputy Boone found the rifle between two rows of boxes in NW corner of the 6th floor. DPD Cpt. Fritz ordered that the rifle not be moved until DPD Lt. Day could photograph it. After photographing it and making sure there were no prints on the stock, Day examined the rifle and noted the serial number, C2766, which later investigation revealed was the rifle shipped to Oswald's PO box.

So it's not just the Feds we can't trust, as apparently the DPD and the Sheriff’s Dept must have been in on it!

Robert chooses to discount all of this evidence, in favor of one outlier statement, made many years after the fact, by a man not involved in the initial search of the 6th floor.
 
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Funny that.

According to testimony, Deputy Mooney found the snipers nest in the SE corner of the 6th floor, with a paper parcel and three shell casings. Not long after this, Deputy Boone found the rifle between two rows of boxes in NW corner of the 6th floor. DPD Cpt. Fritz ordered that the rifle not be moved until DPD Lt. Day could photograph it. After photographing it and making sure there were no prints on the stock, Day examined the rifle and noted the serial number, C2766, which later investigation revealed was the rifle shipped to Oswald's PO box.

Robert chooses to discount all of this evidence, in favor of one outlier statement, made many years after the fact, by a man not involved in the initial search of the 6th floor.

And wouldn't they all have the enhanced memory powers of somebody who was working the most important case of their lives?

Or do only the witnesses that agree with the claim get that benefit?
 
I believe the most parsimonious interpretation of the consilience of evidence is that Oswald acted alone. The reason I believe that is because I have surveyed the evidence (what evidence?) and can find no more compelling case for any other individual.


Are you really not aware of the evidence that proves Oswald's guilt?
That evidence.
There is no indication in that evidence that anyone else was involved, so the most sensible conclusion is that no one was. That doesn't say there is any (impossible) proof for the negative proposition that Oswald had no accomplices, only that we have plenty of evidence for Oswald's guilt and no evidence for anyone else's.
 
And wouldn't they all have the enhanced memory powers of somebody who was working the most important case of their lives?

Or do only the witnesses that agree with the claim get that benefit?
I could be mistaken, but that would appear to be the ...umm, logic behind Robert's position.
 
And I have demonstrated a probability that shots were fired at 285 and 313, that is so high that it is beyond reasonable dispute.

Reading comprehension is important, Sandy.

Didn't you claim to be some kind of an editor:D

I am indeed a professional copy editor, and I can tell you with authority that what you wrote claimed that you had "demonstrated" that shots were fired at both 285 and 313.

You already know I don't buy your purported demonstration of the earlier shot, but the claim that you "demonstrated" the existence of the latter (by pointing to presumed "startle reactions," I guess) is worth highlighting, and scarcely even needed my comment.
 
I believe the most parsimonious interpretation of the consilience of evidence is that Oswald acted alone. The reason I believe that is because I have surveyed the evidence (what evidence?) and can find no more compelling case for any other individual.

Are you really not aware of the evidence that proves Oswald's guilt?

Yes, which is why I've said a dozen or two times, that Oswald was probably guilty.

What is absurd, is the claim that there is evidence that Oswald acted alone. Not only does no such evidence exist, but there is a mountain of evidence which proves that he couldn't have acted alone.

Now, before you just blurt out that my evidence doesn't exist, you will need to address my arguments and answer a lot of questions which you have been evading for literally years, going back to McAdams forum.

Are you finally up for that, Sandy?

I didn't think so:-)
 
I could be mistaken, but that would appear to be the ...umm, logic behind Robert's position.

It's always a great idea to misrepresent your adversaries and then attack your own misrepresentation.

What you prove is, that your arguments are a helluva lot easier to refute than mine:-)
 
And I don't make arguments based on "need". I base them on the evidence. If Ellsworth and the officers who talked to him about Oswald's rifle were truthful, then it is a fact that there were two murder weapons.

Under what definition of *evidence* does Ellsworth's 30-year after the fact recollection of hearsay qualify as *evidence*, Robert?


Some issues cannot be resolved, in fact, many issues associated with this case cannot be resolved with certainty. Only blind advocates claim otherwise.

Whether there was a second rifle in the depository is not uncertain, however. Nobody mentions two. No one who searched the building except Ellsworth mentions a rifle on other than the sixth floor. And Ellsworth's claim came 30-years after the fact and you concede it's only hearsay, not *evidence*.


I have demonstrated with certainty, that Oswald did not fire any of the early shots. And I have demonstrated a probability that shots were fired at 285 and 313, that is so high that it is beyond reasonable dispute.

No, and no. You didn't need to demonstrate a high probability of a shot at Z313, since that is beyond dispute, as another poster pointed out.



Other issues, like the sniper locations, are also, not absolute certainties. The question of whether Ellsworth told the truth, also falls into that category. I see no probable reason to think that he didn't. You obviously do.

Nope, straw man argument. You can't rebut my arguments if you constantly mis-state them. I am no questioning his truth-telling. I am questioning his recall and the fact that he's only relaying hearsay.


At the risk of sounding like a stuck record, I am here to present relevant facts and evidence, associated with the assassination.

And we've been very patiently waiting for you to start.


Will it help if I tell you another 12 times, that I cannot prove it is true? Coming from a federal agent, it is obviously likely, however.

Then we're done. The Warren Commissioners, all seven of them, studied the evidence and concluded that Oswald fired all the shots that struck anyone. The House Committee on Assassinations, all twelve of them, studied the evidence and concluded that Oswald fired all the shots that struck anyone. Those men were all serving the federal government and as such, were agents of the federal government.

I can also cite several others, like J.E.Hoover, and Nicholas Katzenbach, who likewise concluded Oswald was the shooter and there was no conspiracy.

That's 21 guys whose conclusions, you must admit, are each "coming from a federal agent" and are "obviously likely" -- using your logic.


I'm pretty sure I never said that. Cite me verbatim please. I have lost track of how many times you have misrepresented my statements.

Straw man argument. I'm asking you to remember this argument of yours:

This is not a courtroom. And we don't apply the kind of standards that apply when a defendant's life or liberty is at stake.
When you try to shift the argument in the future:
Kindly remember you argued that when you want to argue that Oswald should be presumed innocent until proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. Or that he's innocent because he was never convicted of the assassination. I've seen both arguments from conspiracy theorists.



I said no such thing. It gets tiresome having to continually correct your misrepresentations.

Another straw man. I never said you did. What part of the next sentence (that you failed to quote) did you not understand?

I am merely presuming you will avail yourself at some point of these arguments from other conspiracy theorists. Other than your shooting scenario, your points have all been standard boilerplate conspiracy theorist nonsense, so I believe this presumption isn't without justification.

Hank
 
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And I have demonstrated a probability that shots were fired at 285 and 313, that is so high that it is beyond reasonable dispute.

Oh, wait. You did statistical calculations ? Could you post them here ?

Yes, which is why I've said a dozen or two times, that Oswald was probably guilty.

....so they had a sniper shoot at the president, which begs the question: why have another ?
 
Yes, which is why I've said a dozen or two times, that Oswald was probably guilty.

What is absurd, is the claim that there is evidence that Oswald acted alone. Not only does no such evidence exist, but there is a mountain of evidence which proves that he couldn't have acted alone.

Now, before you just blurt out that my evidence doesn't exist, you will need to address my arguments and answer a lot of questions which you have been evading for literally years, going back to McAdams forum.

Are you finally up for that, Sandy?

I didn't think so:-)

Gee, it's swell that you can accept that Oswald was "probably guilty," Bob. When are you going to tell the forum about your belief that he was a secret right-winger, pretending to be a communist, and exactly how he might have been involved.

You should refrain from making baseless claims that I haven't critiqued your theory in detail, as the history of our most recent conversations can be readily followed here. I should, however, make a list of the questions I've put to you right here that have never received a response.

I and others have very patiently tried to explain to you that proving that no one else was involved is proving a negative and hence logically impossible.

All we can say is that there is no evidence of anyone else's involvement.

Now, it's easy to imagine how someone else's involvement could be proved.
(So far, you haven't done that.)

But—and I've asked this before—what kind of evidence would you require to prove, what kind of evidence do you imagine could prove the negative proposition that no one else was involved?
 
And I have demonstrated a probability that shots were fired at 285 and 313, that is so high that it is beyond reasonable dispute.

Reading comprehension is important, Sandy.

Didn't you claim to be some kind of an editor:D
You still haven't shown any convincing evidence of a shot at 285.

Meanwhile, we have some evidence indicative of a shot at ~160 (based on Gov. Connally's testimony to his reaction after hearing the first shot and what we see in the Zapruder film), very good evidence of a shot at ~223 (based on Connally's reactions to being struck, as well as the President's reaction seen as he emerges from behind the road sign), and of course there is no doubt of a shot at 313. That would be three shots; oddly enough we also have the three spent casings found in the sniper's nest. Not to mention the fact that the "magic bullet" that stuck both the President and the Governor, as well as the fragments of the fatal head shot were matched to Oswald's rifle to the exclusion of any other weapon.

For a shot at 285 we have...umm...your say so, based on your interpretation of the Zapruder film that AFAIK no one else is seeing.
 
Jay, others and myself all recognised your game very early on.

Yes, on the nose. It's not as if it's difficult to find other examples of Harris presenting his findings and responding to critics, and it's not as if we haven't allowed him page after page in this thread either to engage in meaningful debate or to carry on playing rhetorical games.

I mentioned many pages ago how funny it was that your game tactics never change even after twenty years.

Yes, conspiracy theorists' arguments fit a pattern. This is not a stereotype, but a capsule of the experience gained in this lengthy thread and elsewhere. The ability to abstract arguments and categorize them into validating and non-validating patterns is the foundation of critical thought since Aristotle, and remains the basis of critical analysis today.

So Jay is correct to mention that you are not actually seeking his opinion, but are attempting to prolong the game.

I wrote two substantial essays, one on burden of proof and the other on consilience. Harris' response to each of those is a matter of record, and suggests quite persuasively how seriously I can expect him actually to address any expertise I might choose to give to him. There were followup posts that demonstrate rather acutely that he didn't even read what I wrote.

Hence I interpret his solicitation for further postings from me to be simply an example of his larger pattern of attempting to saddle his critics with onerous and tedious burdens of production, which have little to do with his arguments, and for which he has demonstrated little if any interest once produced.

The debate returns almost daily to the summary of his claims, having to do with the nature of gunshots, the nature of human reaction, and the properties of eyewitness testimony. I have seen his treatment of rebuttals to each of those points and, as I've said several times now, I have reached my conclusion regarding the validity of his case and the methods he has employed to construct it. After enough rounds of debate, I have further formed a judgment for how likely continued debate is to advance the discussion.
 
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You did make one very profound and accurate statement however.
"As skeptics, we believe that the best theory is that which explains the most observations"

Rail split. The statement is profound and accurate because it is Occam's Razor, one of the eminent guiding principles of critical thought. Skeptics quote it often, as this thread has seen me do. And while I represent it accurately, you have misquoted me in the same way conspiracy theorists misquote poor William of Occam himself. You left out the second of the two legs of the test: "...while requiring the least speculations, assumptions, or loose ends" (variously worded, depending upon my whim at the moment). Your method cannot overcome this, and you show no interest in even entertaining a discussion as to why. Hence I have drawn my final conclusion regarding your theory and the methods you used to formulate it. And I have reached my final judgment regarding its credibility.

I see no point in entertaining a further recitation of your staid claims, and no point whatsoever in engaging your puerile rhetorical game.
 
You still haven't shown any convincing evidence of a shot at 285.

Meanwhile, we have some evidence indicative of a shot at ~160 (based on Gov. Connally's testimony to his reaction after hearing the first shot and what we see in the Zapruder film), very good evidence of a shot at ~223 (based on Connally's reactions to being struck, as well as the President's reaction seen as he emerges from behind the road sign), and of course there is no doubt of a shot at 313. That would be three shots; oddly enough we also have the three spent casings found in the sniper's nest. Not to mention the fact that the "magic bullet" that stuck both the President and the Governor, as well as the fragments of the fatal head shot were matched to Oswald's rifle to the exclusion of any other weapon.

For a shot at 285 we have...umm...your say so, based on your interpretation of the Zapruder film that AFAIK no one else is seeing.

And to be fair, the supposed sniper(s) in the Dal-Tex building, assisted by those unicorn spotter(s). We know both were there because that's what snipers and unicorns do - leave no evidence behind and remain unseen.

Hank
 
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Yes, on the nose. .


Thank you Sir.

The Conspiracy Theorist's game is incredibly boring, for me.
Many laughs are to be had by reading their nonsense.
But it's pointless to play along.

The OCD JFK addicts are becoming a dying breed thankfully.
Hopefully in fifteen years time that particular form of 'debate' will be long forgotten.

ETA: respect to people who have the patience to play along but it's a futile endeavour.
 
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What is absurd, is the claim that there is evidence that Oswald acted alone.

The Warren Commission never said that. They said there was no evidence Oswald had help of any nature. They also said they found no evidence of conspiracy.

http://www.archives.gov/research/jfk/warren-commission-report/chapter-1.html#conclusions

== QUOTE ==
9.The Commission has found no evidence that either Lee Harvey Oswald or Jack Ruby was part of any conspiracy, domestic or foreign, to assassinate President Kennedy.
...
Because of the difficulty of proving negatives to a certainty the possibility of others being involved with either Oswald or Ruby cannot be established categorically, but if there is any such evidence it has been beyond the reach of all the investigative agencies and resources of the United States and has not come to the attention of this Commission.
10.In its entire investigation the Commission has found no evidence of conspiracy, subversion, or disloyalty to the U.S. Government by any Federal, State, or local official.
11.On the basis of the evidence before the Commission it concludes that Oswald acted alone.


So just another straw man argument by you.

Hank
 
And to be fair, the supposed sniper(s) in the Dal-Tex building, assisted by those unicorn spotter(s). We know both were there because that's what snipers and unicorns do - leave no evidence behind and remain unseen.

Hank

Excellent!
 
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