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Miracle of the Shroud II: The Second Coming

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Dinwar, I get it you are a carbon dating professional.

What I do not get is your insistence the cloth should not be retested, given your scientific objectivity. It should not worry you.
It doesn't "worry" anyone. You can go ahead and retest until the cows come home and there is no cloth left. Knock yourself out. All that will happen is yet more results proving a medieval origin.

As each test transpires, the true believers will claim yet another test is required and on and on ad infinitum, Ramen.

The extant tests have been performed to the satisfaction of christians and atheists alike. Pretty much all of them accept the CIQ as a medieval fake except for an unhappy few whose grip upon their faith is so tenuous that it rests upon the authenticity of the CIQ.
 
No. Say you have a normal distribution, such as height. If your sampling doesn't give you a bell-shaped curve, there is likely an error in your sampling.

This is why we are advised to find a random sample of, say 200, in a cross section of the population, as a minimum figure if you want your figures to be reasonably accurate.

This is true OF A POPULATION. The shroud isn't a population, therefore this requirement is not needed. You may as well be talking about batting averages for all the relevance this has to the topic at hand.

Secondly, if you think you'll get a bell-shaped curve you know little about population dynamics. Biology seldom provides normal distributions; they are usually fairly skewed one way or the other. If you're going to bring up irrelevancies, you could at least not do so badly.
 
Yes. It is what you said. If that is not what you meant, so be it.


Vixen said:
Say you have a normal distribution, such as height. If your sampling doesn't give you a bell-shaped curve, there is likely an error in your sampling.
The age of the shroud is not a distribution, and this does not address the criticism. There is no problem with making an error as you did, but failing to admit it indicates another problem.

Vixen said:
This is why we are advised to find a random sample of, say 200, in a cross section of the population, as a minimum figure if you want your figures to be reasonably accurate.
And still you ignore the actual criticism. What if the population is only 1? And, no, the labs are not the population.
 
This is nonsense. At this risk of critique from Dinwar, I'm going to explain this to you. N14 is floating along in the upper atmosphere minding it's own business. All of a sudden, (cue theme to Fantastic Fore Movie) cosmic rays hit it and without so much as a by your leave turns, it into C14. The N14 was happy and feeling fulfilled in it's life as nitrogen. So, it goes an a long quest entering living organisms and radiating energy like subplots in a road trip movie, trying to get back to that place it was before (cue the Eagles). As it radioactively decays the carbon converts back to nitrogen and we measure the ratio of nitrogen to carbon. As we know the rate of radioactive decay we can determine when whatever the organic material is stopped ingesting C14. If the rate of decay was unknown we might have to take an average. However it's not, so we don't.

It still requires an interpretation of the results. If each of the three samples throws out a different estimated age, skill is needed to age it perfectly.

I understand carbon testing is exceedingly accurate.

To demontrate that, why baulk at the idea of mass retesting?
 
Do you know how much the Vatican is sitting on?

Have you heard of the parable of the man selling everything he's got to find the treasure in his field?

Cutting some cloth and then testing it does not cost as much as you claim, as I assume these labs already have the plant, machinery and staff in place.

Trust me, I am a chartered accountant.

Since the C14 rate of decay is constant, why would you need more samples?
 
No, only 200 randomly selected ISO standard labs.

you don't understand random sampling, right ?

Firstly you have to understand what you are speaking about when talking about sampling. Asking for 200 "fixed number" sampling for most analyzes is NEVER done. Why is that ? because for most analyzes we can estimate the probability that the population considered. Why is that ? Because of the work of previous scientist those guy you dismissed.

That is why we know we do not need to take 200 sample of a cylinder to check the metal mass spectro. That is why we do not extract 200 blood probe from your blood. And that is why you do not take 200 radio carbon sample from the cloth. Because the "relative" underlying uniformity of the material preclude the necessity of 200 sample and averaging : the distribution is more or less flat. On the other hand you cannot do that for a human population with a gaussian or poisson distribution.

But it is not a 200 fix number, you calculate depending on the expected variance how many sample you would need, and IIRC (i could be wrong) that is around in single % or sub percent depending on the distribution and the max population. Think about it as if using the monte carlo method : you need a certain number of sampling from your distribution.

In this case what you are asking for , 200 sample display a thorough ignorance on the statistical significance and the variation expected over the cloth especially since it was examinated. Since the cloth fiber are expected to be from the same time period whatever it is, you do not need in any way shape or form 200 sample.

As for your kip about the scientist "I said the high-tech is thanks to the human brain.
Not created by scientists. " well the scientist came up with the laws of physic, chemistry biology (and maths if extended to mathematician). Not the general population. Thus whatever high tech you are using, is principally because the work of scientist over quantic physic , normal and organic chemistry, semi conductor etc....
 
One of the criticisms of the 1988 tests is that only three labs were involved.

Which is silly, given that this is more than what's usually required.

So, increase the number of labs testing. If your hypothesis is robust, i.e., the shroud is dated 1260, why should you be resistant to retesting?

Because it's not required. Most people either accept the result, or wouldn't accept the results, no matter how many times you tested.

The Vatican can afford it.

But they don't want to.

Reality > Theory.
 
It still requires an interpretation of the results. If each of the three samples throws out a different estimated age, skill is needed to age it perfectly.

I understand carbon testing is exceedingly accurate.

To demontrate that, why baulk at the idea of mass retesting?

Test it as much as you like. I have no attachment to the the thing. Do understand that you're destroying your holy relic as you do this though.

However since the typology, documentary and dating evidence all agree, this one is done and dusted. Dinwar is right though, this ain't going to be cheap.
 
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It still requires an interpretation of the results. If each of the three samples throws out a different estimated age, skill is needed to age it perfectly.

I understand carbon testing is exceedingly accurate.

To demontrate that, why baulk at the idea of mass retesting?

Because it's been established already (Isotopes: Principles and Applications for reference). Secondly, because you are dishonestly presenting your proposal. Third, all the other reasons I've given for why such sampling is impractical and not necessary.
 
Explain.



Citation needed.

Once you've done that, please address the fact that it's impossible.



Yeah, except that in a better analogy, you're only trying to measure a single person's height. How many measurements do you need before you decide on an average ?


A minimum random sample of 200.
 
Dinwar, I get it you are a carbon dating professional.

What I do not get is your insistence the cloth should not be retested, given your scientific objectivity. It should not worry you.

He never said he DOES NOT want to be retested. Feel free to test it. But 1) the owner will not let you 2) as we explained this is pretty much useless as too many sample gave similar results.
 
One of the criticisms of the 1988 tests is that only three labs were involved.

So, increase the number of labs testing. If your hypothesis is robust, i.e., the shroud is dated 1260, why should you be resistant to retesting?

The Vatican can afford it.

I'm sure the Vatican can well afford to do it. It simply refuses.

Why couldn't some independant entity do it at their own expense? Because the Vatican refuses that too.

You seem very keen to paint the Vatican as all agog to get some testing. They're not. They don't want it at all.
 
And you are still left with the problem that such a testing schedule would consume unfeasible amounts of the CIQ, the Vatican would never agree and you are still setting the bar so high as to be unreachable.

That is your agenda. Set the evidentiary bar so high that it can never be attained, and the faithful can remain comfy in the delusion of authenticity.

No. The aim is to provide an indisputable age for the cloth.

I am not a Catholic and I do not venerate Holy Relics, so your assumption is mistaken.
 
You have misquoted me and out of context.

Two hundred is accepted as the statistically random number of samples, or subjects, to aim for. This irons out results that are outwith ± 2.15 standard deviations. Unless you have enough samples, you will have difficulty calculating the 98% siginificancce level.

For example, I might set out to discover average height in London, and the first 20 people I pick out at random could all be over 6' tall. Do you understand the need to sample a few more than that?

I am confused by your statistics. In my research, one often has to calculate in advance how many "n's" (replicates, samples, etc.) one would need in an experiment to get a certain statistically acceptable error. Of course the number of n's required depends on the distribution of the population, the reproducabilty of the experimental replicates, and on the confidence level that would be acceptable to the researcher (typically for a p=< 0.05). For most experiments, n is far less than 200! Often one can do an n=3 and get results that are statistically quite different from the null hypothesis by a p=<0.05 or much less (the smaller the p value the more confidence in the result not being due to random chance).

In your example, if you wished to calculate the average height of a Londoner, and you only measured 20, you could probably say that the height of a typical Londoner is within a range from 3 feet to 8 feet with a p value of =<0.05. But even 20 truly random samples would make a height of 1 foot very unlikely. The more people you measured the more accurately you could estimate the average height and the typical range of heights, but you wouldn't need to do 200 to simply rule out 1 foot as a typical height. You wouldn't even need to do 20.

This is generally true with all experimental data, and this type of statistical analysis is usually published with the data. In the case of the Nature paper, they indicated that the statistical error of their dates, even when considered lab by lab, was plus or minus less than 100 years with a p=<0.05. This did not require anywhere near the 200 samples you propose here. The possibility that these results could have been obtained by random chance from a 30 AD object is probably far less than one in a million (sorry, I haven't calculated the exact number yet).

Perhaps 200 more analyses might narrow the date a bit further, perhaps to +/- 10 years. But it would still come out as solidly Middle Ages.

Even the choice of "200" seems totally arbitrary. In science one first calculates the acceptable error, and then the number of n's required to obtain that error; 200 seems wildly off scale. And unnecessary: the published data already answers the central question, is the shroud 2000 years old, in a statistically very well documented way: no!
 
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Test it as much as you like. I have no attachment to the the thing. Do understand that you're destroying your holy relic as you do this though.

Regardless of whether it's sacred or not, it IS an artifact, and as standard practice we should be very careful with destructive testing of those. One reason is, we need to preserve the artifact for future testing methods. They may not be useful with the shroud, but with many artifacts (and fossils) developments in the future can allow us to understand more about the remains, but only if they are available for such testing. Wanton destruction of the artifact--which is all this would be--precludes any possible advancement of knowledge by destroying the material such knowledge would be gained from.

This is why most artifacts aren't radiocarbon dated at all--the default position is "No testing", and there is a tremendous amount of resistance to overcome (properly so!) before one can obtain any destructive testing results.
 
A minimum random sample of 200.

I am calling troll now. it is quite clear you are taking a laugh here.

Anyway I am trying to picture that. You take the measuring band and you notice 1m70 for the person you measure (or whatever abominable imperial unit). Then you measure again that SAME person a second time. Find 1m70, then again, then again then again then maybe sometime you will get 1m69 because you are getting tired to do the same measurement..... Until you measure 200 time and show proudly your result at people which will then immediately edge toward the door looking at you very nervously.

Because measuring one person 200 time is a clear sign of insanity.
 
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