I generally agree with your scenario since it is the most logical.
I've seen the Oggi photos, and while they looked around at something it wasn't necessarily caused by Meredith screaming.
The cottage has thick brick walls with smaller windows and a tile roof, all of which would inhibit noise, and Meredith's small bedroom window pointed in the opposite direction of the garage and apartments. The defense wanted to conduct audiotronic testing to prove that Nara couldn't have heard Meredith scream, but Mignini (of course) turned down their request.
A film crew did conduct its own impromptu audio test – Nara wouldn't let them into her apartment, but her neighbor allowed the crew in, and with the dual-pane windows closed and with hired local boys running down the street, the guy on camera inside couldn't hear a thing outside, so Nara obviously lied about hearing perps running away after the murder (see below video).
A better TOD could be determined if the police released the CCTV camera's video of Guede walking away from the cottage after the murder. A reporter claims to have seen it, but stated the police had scrubbed the time-stamp from it, which is typical if it had any exculpatory value.
Not sure if Guede chased Meredith around much, if at all? He may have snuck up on her from behind?
Of course, OJ Simpson quickly took out his adult ex-wife and Ron Goldman on the front porch of her condo, and OJ managed to quickly subdue and kill two adults in their prime, and at least one of them likely saw OJ coming – experts said OJ's attack was probably over in a minute, or less. Nicole's neighbors never heard shouts or any scuffle; as I recall, they only heard a dog barking.
Here's the video of the impromptu audio test conducted through the dual-pane windows of Nara Capezzali's neighbor (nothing was heard) - if you've never seen this video before, it's worth watching:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nd-Th8lIxyo
1st hilite - At this point in time when Meredith presumably screamed, as per Guede's account IIRC, (and possibly cooborated by the Oggi pictures of the CCTV video tape from the garage - the different sets of people are all looking in the direction of the cottage, -
Filomena's window was already broken. This is supported by the presence of the glass fragment in Guede's footprint in Meredith's wet blood. So the sound comparison to Nara, through her double pained window, isn't a clear comparison.
Secondly, Nara was an elderly lady, IIRC, half deaf, and had previously been confined to a psyche ward in an asylum. She doesn't have to be lying, just have convinced herself that she saw something, and then keep reinforcing it in her head until she thinks its real. Not reliable, but not the same as lying. (I don't know of course whether she lied or fooled herself, but listening to her describe the incidents, I was struck by how much her account seems to have come directly from press reports. The idea her testimony would be comsidered credible is just bizarre. Wasn't she another one of the finds by that cub journalist, Foie?
2nd hilite - I hadn't heard this detail before, that Rudy was captured on the CCTV leaving the cottage. (DANO has been great on piecing together what images could be captured on what cameras). I thought Guede was spotted running up the stairs after the crime, when he bumped into a couple on their way down? But I may have that detail wrong. Anyway, I'd like to know more about the reporter claiming to have seen Guede leaving the cottage on the CCTV tape, that's news ot me.
3rd Hilite - DANO had shown pics or pointed to clothing disturbed around the kitchen or living room, IIRC, its a fair ways up thread by this point. Maybe an overturned chair too? I'm not sure, but I believe there was indications of a scuffle or a chase outside Meredith's room. I imagine her running there and trying to get the door closed before Guede can get to her, when she might have been able to call the police. But obviously that didn't happen, or we never would have heard of the case.
But I do recall there seemed to be some evidence of a chase or scuffle outside Meredith's room, so I don't think Guede first surprised her there in her room. As I say, I think Guede tried to leave without confrontation as he had always done before, and found himself locked in. At that point I think Meredith might have noticed him. The only other way out that Guede knew of at that point, would have been Filomena's window, and to get there he'd have had to go by Meredith's room - unless he could have opened another window and escaped - which also might have drawn Meredith's attention.
ETA- OOPS - just noticed that Filomena's room is next to the front door, so he would only have had to start walking back towards Meredith's room to get to Filomena's door, and if Meredith came out from the noise of Guede trying to open the front door, then, they see each other, and the assault is on. Would be interesting to know if any of the overturned stuff were in between the front door and Meredith's bedroom. referring to the layout Grinder posted on page 41, #1637, it seems to be in the right spot. Calling DANO, Calling DANO, Come in DANO... specific details needed...
I find this area of analysis to be fascinating, because I think there's a lot there to piece together.
The comparison to OJ is difficult to find relevance because its a completely different crime, with a completely different set of evidence. OJ was also a former world class athlete. Guede was semi-pro, obviously highly athletic, but overpowering a much smaller woman hardly seems an impossible task for him. Meredith's bruises and injuries document how much of a fight she was able to put up, and the single set of footprints in blood, shows Guede acted alone.
(yes, this post is sarcasm)