davefoc
Philosopher
My assessment of Guede is that he is likely an inveterate liar and a sociopath/psychopath. I don't think he has any emotional need to "tell the truth" - I think he will do/say only whatever he thinks serves his own narrow self-interest the best.
I truly think that Guede has convinced himself by now that he played no active part in the murder, and that's certainly the story he has persisted in hawking. I see zero value to Guede in now saying (assuming for a moment that this is the factual truth) that he was alone when he attacked and killed Meredith Kercher. I think he is perfectly happy to believe that at least some people buy his story about being in the wrong place at the wrong time.
So I think that if Guede does say anything about the murder at any time after his release, it will always be along the same lines - that others actually conducted the attack and murder, and he just got caught up in the aftermath. I think he'll probably be careful not to name Sollecito or Knox though. But if he were to say exactly this, I wouldn't place any value upon it in terms of Guede telling the truth - I think it will be a predictable manifestation of Guede's lying self-preservation.
My view is different. I think Guede knows the truth. I think the general idea that he doesn't have any moral compunction to tell the truth is correct. He found himself in a desperate situation and the prosecutor offered him a path to reduce his problems and he took it. I think Guede would tell the truth if he found himself in a situation where that was to his advantage but I can't see how it will ever be to his advantage to tell the truth and as such I think he won't.
I can't see how Guede telling the truth at this point in time would affect much of anything anyway. How many people that believe in Knox and Sollecito's guilt would be swayed by a truthful statement from Guede? My guess is the number approaches zero.
But a whole lot of guilters would be really pissed at him to the point that some of them might physically assault him and that together with the possibility that the Italian justice system would stomp on him if he told the truth makes it seem to me highly unlikely that he will tell the truth.