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Global warming discussion III

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How Do the Polar Vortex and Warming Relate?

http://news.discovery.com/earth/wea...he-polar-vortex-and-warming-relate-150212.htm

"Some researchers suggest that such kinks in the jet stream that allow that cold air to spill out could actually become more common in a warming world because of changes to the environment where that cold air originates — the Arctic."

and
"This pattern may sound familiar to those in the eastern U.S. who shivered under repeated such incursions last winter, when the term “polar vortex” became all the rage. The non-stop sucker punches of frigid air also brought to the forefront the idea that global warming could paradoxically be behind them, with Arctic sea ice melt forcing wild dives in the jet stream up in the atmosphere.

But it’s a hotly debated idea that has spurred a flurry of research, some of which bolsters the connection but still leaves key questions unanswered and many atmospheric scientists skeptical."

Also
Is Global Warming Behind the Polar Vortex?
Rutgers climate scientist believes that Arctic warming is altering jet stream around Northern Hemisphere

http://news.rutgers.edu/hot-topic/global-warming-behind-polar-vortex/20140129#.VO6fMy7laqo

This story was what actually prompted me to post on this thread. They were doing a story on CBC news. In Ottawa where they are skating now 47 consecutive days on the Rideau canal. The longest stretch in its 45 year history.

Again. This drastic increase of ice time is of course caused by global warming

But this is what I read last year on the canal and it's future.

...These dire findings specifically relate to the the Rideau Canal, which runs through Ottawa and each year becomes the largest ice skating rink in the world. Researchers from McGill University found that, with each passing decade since 1972, the canal has been skate-able for five fewer days, Conservation Magazine reports. The average skating season during those years was 58 days, but by 2040, it's predicted to drop to 50 days or less. By 2090, however, it will last just 28 or 29 days if global warming continues unchecked.

The authors point out, however, that those estimates are probably low-ball figures since warming is currently accelerating and the predictive computer models they built lean toward conservative figures.


So basically. No matter what the weather, no matter what happens.... it's global warming.
 
Again. I am not all on expert in global warming. I do however have a bit of a BS detector. That does mean I think climate change is not real... I just think some of it's proponents can be just as full of crap as the deniers.
 
Again. I am not all on expert in global warming. I do however have a bit of a BS detector. That does mean I think climate change is not real... I just think some of it's proponents can be just as full of crap as the deniers.

No, you don't.

Your last chain of posts insisted in saying "they say it's the whole system parameter" while addressing a bunch of details and circumstantial instant values of local variables carefully selected in a unique direction, all wrapped up with the same fallacious mechanism that allows Regular Joe say "I always fail to catch the train" because he remembers the instances he fails and forgets the instances he doesn't.

That is "completely lacking a BS detector but believing yourself to be this or that" so typical of forumites* here, so check out the pronoun in "they are as full of crap as..." because its real subject is much closer than you think.

[* people here are as sceptic as East Germany was democratic: both a sham]
 
No, you don't.

Your last chain of posts insisted in saying "they say it's the whole system parameter" while addressing a bunch of details and circumstantial instant values of local variables carefully selected in a unique direction, all wrapped up with the same fallacious mechanism that allows Regular Joe say "I always fail to catch the train" because he remembers the instances he fails and forgets the instances he doesn't.

That is "completely lacking a BS detector but believing yourself to be this or that" so typical of forumites* here, so check out the pronoun in "they are as full of crap as..." because its real subject is much closer than you think.

[* people here are as sceptic as East Germany was democratic: both a sham]

Yes, I do.

If Global warming is real it isn't because it was cold this winter, or there was a big hurricane... or an earth quake. But yet it's trotted out almost every time the weather is anything other then "normal".

If you can show me real evidence (which I'm sure you can), that's fine. But most evidence I see via mainstream media, I'm sure is not any kind of real evidence.

Most people doing the talking don't much more of an understanding then I do... which isn't much.
 
Yes, I do.

If Global warming is real it isn't because it was cold this winter, or there was a big hurricane... or an earth quake. But yet it's trotted out almost every time the weather is anything other then "normal".

If you can show me real evidence (which I'm sure you can), that's fine. But most evidence I see via mainstream media, I'm sure is not any kind of real evidence.

Most people doing the talking don't much more of an understanding then I do... which isn't much.



The media are generally scientifically illiterate. The posts in this thread showing actual scientific data are what you should be looking at. Talking about media reports is basically a red herring.

My BS detector says you know that already.
 
Yes, I do.

If Global warming is real it isn't because it was cold this winter, or there was a big hurricane... or an earth quake. But yet it's trotted out almost every time the weather is anything other then "normal".

If you can show me real evidence (which I'm sure you can), that's fine. But most evidence I see via mainstream media, I'm sure is not any kind of real evidence.

Most people doing the talking don't much more of an understanding then I do... which isn't much.

That being true, it doesn't back up your line of argumentation. Everybody knows media products are to be consumed by the masses, so they use an epistemological approach that produces what they may be able to digest. The "diddley-dee, global warming!" approach you are questioning is just the adult version of a 4-yo boy and his "why?":

-if the Earth is made of icecream, would it melt?
-yes
-and it'd drain to...?
-the Southern Pole.

Again, global warming is the global parameter, and media communication -including fractional versions like blogs and fora- are the structure that allows certain types of behaviour. In that context your "I just think some of it's [sic] proponents can be just as full of crap as the deniers" is just "there's a lot of people who aren't doctors talking about medicine" with a suspiciously skewed use of the word "proponents".

Phrases like "there are lots of people who can't tell their arses from their noses that are saying vaccines are safe" together with "I'm not saying vaccines are not safe" are only intended to cast doubts about vaccines while they avoid to attack the core of the issue because in fact they couldn't. They belong to the real of politics and marketing as they are based in manipulation and not reason. Your objections about global warming attribution sound totally that way whether it is your intention or not.
 
I'm no expert. I've just been casually following the debate for 2 decades. From about 1995 to 2011 the winters were nothing like when I was a kid. We were told this was because of global warming. The past few years winters have made a comeback. This year winter has been as cold as it has been decades ago. Why? The same experts say global warming.

And why can't those two propositions be true? When you pour huge amounts of energy into a dynamic system then the results can be counterintuitive - being a "casual" observer and getting your information from the mass media you probably shouldn't expect a complex system to act in accordance with what you assume should be common sense.
 
... They belong to the real of politics and marketing as they are based in manipulation and not reason. Your objections about global warming attribution sound totally that way whether it is your intention or not.

ERRATUM: "they belong to the realm of ..."

Caper's is one of several denialist classic rhetoric approaches to fight the adoption of anti global warming policies, but he seems to have not noticed it :rolleyes:
 
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If Global warming is real it isn't because it was cold this winter, or there was a big hurricane... or an earth quake. But yet it's trotted out almost every time the weather is anything other then "normal".

You are in a science forum FFS and you make a ridiculous statement like that....:boggled:
what a serious waste of perfectly innocent electrons :rolleyes:

You have two choices...

continue to play the fool....

or

be an honest enquirer and learn something about your only planet.

Which do you prefer?
 
A few "maybes"s need to be inserted here, CapelDodger :D.
You miss my intent. I'm trying to provoke threats of legal action from Monckton. You're nobody in this game if you've not been threatened with m'learned friends by Monckton. Hence the absence of "allegedly" etc.

Thus those personality changes could include paranoia and grandiosity but we cannot exclude that Monckton would be paranoid and/or grandiose without Graves' disease.
Oh, indeed. Attribution is necessarily imprecise; some influence of in-breeding cannot be excluded. It would be unfair and ungentlemanly to bring his sister into this, though (wife of 'Lord' Lawson, close friend of the airhead Princess Diana - you won't hear any of that from me).
 
I'm no expert. I've just been casually following the debate for 2 decades. From about 1995 to 2011 the winters were nothing like when I was a kid. We were told this was because of global warming. The past few years winters have made a comeback. This year winter has been as cold as it has been decades ago. Why? The same experts say global warming.
They do? All of those "same experts"? Any of them, even?

Whether these blocking events are made more likely by AGW is a subject of active research and debate amongst experts. Not all of them, of course, but a good-sized subset.
 
I agree 100%. But that should go for the other side too. Every time it was warm outside for the last 15 years it was because of global warming.
Attribution is not that simple.
When ski hills back home could only open a few weeks a year because of the warmth it was because of global warming.
I'm afraid you won't find such certainty in science. For certainty you should look to politics, there's no end of it in there.

Now, for the last few years the trend has completely reversed and that to is because of global warming.
A few years do not a climate trend make. Not even a regional trend. In fashion, yes; in climate, not even close.
 
I agree 100%. But that should go for the other side too. Every time it was warm outside for the last 15 years it was because of global warming. When ski hills back home could only open a few weeks a year because of the warmth it was because of global warming. Now, for the last few years the trend has completely reversed and that to is because of global warming.

You seem to think these are mutually exclude, but this isn’t the case. Warmer winters in general can be attributed to global warming. Increased frequency of extreme events including warm/cold/wet/dry can also be attributed to global warming.

This is actually one of the key predictions regarding climate change. Specifically, that as the planet warms there will be more warming as you move towards the poles and this in turn will result in a weaker, “wavier” jet stream and therefore a less well defined polar vortex and more frequent intrusions of cold air farther south than normal with associated warm air much farther north than normal.

The end result is that in a warmer world many mid-latitude locations should expect increased variability in winter weather with some winters being extremely cold and others of unprecedented warmth. The average is still warmer so extremes on the warm side will be warmer and more frequent but winters where you get a lot of cold polar air in some places is expected to become more common as well.
 
Here is a link where NOAA describes the process. Basically the weakening jet stream allows warm air to push much farther north than normal which in turn displaces cold polar air much farther south someplace else. The result is a colder winter for that location than it would normally see with a more normal compact polar vortex.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=polar_vortex
 
I agree 100%. But that should go for the other side too. Every time it was warm outside for the last 15 years it was because of global warming. When ski hills back home could only open a few weeks a year because of the warmth it was because of global warming. Now, for the last few years the trend has completely reversed and that to is because of global warming.

The news media does a poor job making sense of science topics.
 
Global warming skeptics tend to refer to the hiatus in global surface temperatures as if it were a good thing (i.e. as if GW has stopped). The actual implications of the hiatus may be bad:New Research Suggests Global Warming Is About To Heat Up
Commonsense tells us that heat cannot be stored in oceans indefinitely (they will not boil!) so at some point the balance will reverse and surface temperatures will increase sharply.
The new paper “Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures” by Byron Steinmann, Michael Mann, and Sonya Miller looks at Atlantic- and Pacific-based internal multidecadal variability (AMO and PMO). The blog explains
This shows the AMO, PMO, and the derived (combining the two) NMO values over time. Assume that the highest and lowest values are close to the maximum and minimum that these measures normally reach. Note that there is something of a periodicity in these values. That there would be makes sense. These values represent the way in which the oceans interact with the air, and we know that although there is not perfect periodicity (regularity) in that relationship, historically, every year the ocean is in a phase of removing heat from the atmosphere there is an increased chance of a reversal in that relationship. Now, step back from the contentious issue of climate change for a moment, and imagine that these are values of a blue chip stock you are thinking of investing in. Remember the cardinal rule of getting rich on the stock market: Buy low, sell high! Now, decide if you want to put your hard earned money ito the AMO or the PMO. Clearly, the PMO is at a minimum. Buy now because it is going to go up soon!
 
If you can show me real evidence (which I'm sure you can), that's fine. But most evidence I see via mainstream media, I'm sure is not any kind of real evidence.

Most people doing the talking don't much more of an understanding then I do... which isn't much.

Your problem is as much in terminology as anything else.
AGW influences the weather and atmosphere/ocean/ice for the whole planet with the northern regions showing the most dramatic shifts.

You need a more global picture...yes Ontario has been record cold, but yes Alaska has record warmth and the US is the sixth warmest winter on record.

One of the marked aspects of AGW is increased extreme weather events.

For you to understand the connection between a warmer Arctic Ocean, the jet stream waver, Arctic dipole and then how it connects to a mild El Nino pattern in the Pacific that breeds warm streams of air up the east coast colliding with the Polar Vortex bringing record snow to Boston......that is a lot of dot connecting.

It is also an emerging field in that climate scientists cannot say the outcomes for regional impacts.
We are globally moving into climate/CO2 regime not seen for millions of years...we are only at the edge and already some of consequences are both astonishing and some unexpected.

More snow and more extreme snow storms are two different things regionally.
We hear about the extremes...so do the insurance companies.

An area might be getting less overall snow for a winter while getting more extreme snow storms.
The weather events are influenced by the changed energy balance due to AGW.

How those influences play out are many times unpredictable in the specific but not unexpected given changed conditions.

For instance two severe cyclones hit Australia last weak.
The one in the tropical north was typical tho stronger than average, AGWs role would be minor - perhaps the hotter ocean turning a Cat 3 to a Cat 4.

But the Category 5 that hit way south of normal....that spun up in mere hours from a tropical storm to an extreme cyclone in an area not prone to such storms.
The ocean in some regions is 5C+ above long term averages....threatening reef structures with severe loss AND providing fuel for heat engine cyclonic storms.

Did AGW CAUSE the cyclone, no, but it set the conditions where what would be a normal tropical storm for area could become a destructive monster in 48 hours.

It's something too many in your shoes overlook in concentrating on the atmosphere records and events.
The 900 lb gorilla in all this is the ocean heat ...both in the Arctic and in the Pacific.

Scientists continue to learn and explore how the movement of increased heat between the ocean and atmosphere ( and ocean and glaciers ) plays out

In general, what they learn is not particularly good news ( ie the Ridiculous Resilient Ridge is not good for California and the US Southwest at all).

Only you can decide to take the time to learn to connect the extreme weather dots the media love to the changes AGW is engendering in various regions.
And understand that in many cases it's not clear to the climate scientists themselves how long term decadal patterns like PDA, NAO and more frequent events of ENSO ( el Nino/La Nina ) interact with the changing energy balance.

In general....Here be Dragons ...is a good watch phrase for those interactions.
It's fascinating, scary and under it....despite the howls and clamour...it's getting warmer, we're responsible primarily due to burning of fossil fuels.

To mitigate those extremes for the future - we need to get to carbon neutral.....a very difficult and long term task.
Even given that....we HAVE already altered the climate for the future and are dealing with the consequences right now.

We're not in Kansas any more Toto....;)
 
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