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Global warming discussion III

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Scientific peer reviewed papers a fraud?
No logger , the issue is dishonesty by not declaring conflicts of interests and even stating that you (Soon) have no conflict of interest.

The sometimes dubious nature of Will Soon's papers is a separate issue.
ETA: Climate science peer review is pal review
The lone documented case of true 'pal review' was committed by climate contrarians in the journal Climate Research from 1997 to 2003, during which time editor Chris de Freitas accepted 14 papers from a select group of contrarians. The journal had not published any papers from that group of authors previously, and only published 2 more papers from the group of 'pals' after de Freitas left.

...The most infamous of these papers was one by Soon and Baliunas (2003) which concluded that current global temperatures are not anomalous compared the past 1,000 years. After publishing this paper, Soon was invited by Senator James Inhofe to testify before US Congress, and the Soon and Baliunas paper was used by Congressional Republicans to justify opposition to climate legislation.

However, the paper contained numerous major fundamental flaws, such as equating dryness with hotness, and was subsequently roundly refuted by an article in the American Geophysical Union journal Eos written by a number of prominent climate scientists. This paper, and Climate Research's refusal to revise or retract it, led to the resignation of five of the journal's editors, including recently-appointed editor-in-chief Hans von Storch,...


Fantasies about falsified data is yet another issue, logger.
 
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No logger , the issue is dishonesty by not declaring conflicts of interests and even stating that you (Soon) have no conflict of interest.

Ahh sorry Reality Check, they ALL accept money and mostly from the side of the political isle they are on.





Fantasies about falsified data is yet another issue, logger.

Or yet to be investigated, Reality Check
 
Haig and Arnold Martin have the same old kind of harmless arguments, a mix of fantasy and ambulance chaser rhetoric in a low level. AM, by copypasta of texts being it really his personal version of the "Like" button disguised as some sort of endorsement; Haig by championing epistemological hedonism and seeing what s/he wants to see, like the failed interpretation of Heinrich and Dansgaard-Oeschger events, as if we hadn't enough contemporary instances of warmed high latitudes along with unusually cold mid latitudes, besides the fact of getting cores from the regions where ice was meant to stay and not to vanish. Is it possible some critical comment about figure 4 in the linked page above? Is it possible to include variations in ice levels and circulation change owing to the very fresh water and iceberg flushes this is supposed to evidence for?

So far, the same old ****, where these would-be "lawyers", inspired by watching Perry Mason reruns, apply the adversarial system logic as if it is related to science and try to deal with each thin individual thread that makes the extremely thick rope which ties AGW to the current climate as if their objections were breaking a link in a chain and making it all fall apart. The fact that they can't even identify a valid objection makes the whole scene even more sad. The last germ of a valid objection that I remember here was an argument sketched by AlBell months ago.

On the other hand, Fudbucker and logger have clearly little, if something, to say about this thread's subject but the intellectual equivalent of a piece of chalk scratching the blackboard. Epistemological hedonism on steroids, as the example of "we're not causing it but we can geo-engineer our way out of it" and Sesame St. economics like "carbon tax makes them get money in a context of higher fuel prices, global cooling and desperate masses rejecting liberalism in the end" -whatever liberalism is in the mind of this person-. Of course, not even the epistemologic level of someone getting 601 in their SAT tests. Let's call my words a strawman if you like, though it was never intended as a counterargument of what was said by them but as a description of decay of quality and off-topicality that permeates this forum.

Let's make it climate science focused for these intellectual powerhouses: You got a nearly exceptional Antarctic sea ice extent and area for the 40 days around and following last solstice.

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/i...timeseries.png

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosph...teractive.html

What did it mean in terms of the planet's energy budget during those days? What can you infer from the global temperature sets for those days, including the satellite golem built by I. Jones at Huntsville? The 12-month running average was record high by January 2015 (there's always a set that says it isn't so), what do you expect it to be by February 2015?

Let's remind denialists -and some warmers- that the Earth's orbit is not circular.

By the way, I would like an AGW sceptic answering this question (I never got any reply to it from them, here and everywhere. They suddenly become mute when asked this and similar basic questions): Which is warmer, a mass of air at 20°C with relative humidity 50% or the exact same mass of air at 19.3°C with relative humidity 70%? The reply has to be "scientific" and you may use any of them or both if you're doubting about it being a mass of dry air or wet air.
Since the skeptics have been a bit silent, the enthalpy of the cooler, but more moist air is higher (approx. 6kJ/kg)

Useful calculators here:
http://www.conservationphysics.org/atmcalc/atmoclc1.php#enthalpy
http://www.conservationphysics.org/atmcalc/atmocalc.php

Obvious really, it takes a lot of energy to evaporate the additional moisture.

Perihelion was on the 4th Jan, combined with it being summer in that part of the world means that isolation is about as high as it gets, yet the Antarctic Sea Ice was a bit slow to melt at that point (It has returned to more normal levels now). From the little I understand the additional energy is helping to fortify the circulating winds and ocean currents that are helping to effectively insulate Antarctica from the sort of polar amplification that has affected the Arctic region . It has also help increase the mixing in the surface layer in the ocean and increase the wave action and this has helped to cause increased evaporation, the loss of energy from that has led to more ice (or rather a lack of melting).

ETA: I don't understand the reference to the satellite golem - My poor Google Fu leads me to your post here as the fifth entry.
 
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Scientific peer reviewed papers a fraud?

Don't you warmists believe in real, honest science.

Soon is different than your rich liberal buddies pushing their junk science, you know, the ones who falsify data.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-govern...n-for-telling-the-truth-about-global-warming/
Like the one he did with the vacuous Viscount and showed that they couldn't even make an honest living as process engineers...

https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2015/01/15/the-designers-of-our-climate/

Or was hammered for a rather poor attempt he did to 'overturn' the present theories...

http://web.archive.org/web/20100117...org/news/press/pr_archives/2003/prrl0319.html

Excuse me while I don't hold out much hope for the views of your personal 'Galileo'. Mind you Galileo's scientific ideas were becoming widely accepted at the time, it was a political / ideological clash with the Vatican that got him in the brown stuff. Now where is that analogous too nowadays, with Australia cutting funding for climate research, Canada muzzling it's scientists free speech, and Infohe's vendetta against Michael Mann...
 
Ahh sorry Reality Check, they ALL accept money and mostly from the side of the political isle they are on.
Ah, the good old tu coque defence. They all do it, therefore they're all doing it. The 97% must have their side of the political aisle because the 3% so obviousaly have theirs. And since the 3% side is the Right side the 97% side is the Left side. Algore algore algore benghazi.

Or yet to be investigated, Reality Check
You can investigate it yourself, all the data is available, and the code, and a description of the algorithms and processes, and the fact that after homogenisation the long-term trend is reduced fractionally. Really, check it out.

Of course if you believe the trend is actually increased because that's what they do on that side of the aisle I guess you can save yourself the trouble. Life must so much easier when you have beliefs.
 
Scientific peer reviewed papers a fraud?

No, the papers have conclusively been shown to simply be wrong, over many, many years and many, many attempts. The fraud comes from not declaring his interests in being paid by fossil fuel lobbyists to write the papers. The kinds of papers you simply and uncritically accept as "truth" without ever bothering to understand the issue. A very un-sceptical way of approaching the world, ironically enough considering the remit of the forum.
 
No, the papers have conclusively been shown to simply be wrong, over many, many years and many, many attempts.
Heck, yeah. I remember him testifying that banning CFC's would bring down the US economy which was what the scientists involved wanted. The man's just weird. Two steps short of differently normal.

This could run and run, especially if people feel obliged to defend him.
 
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You can investigate it yourself, all the data is available, and the code, and a description of the algorithms and processes, and the fact that after homogenisation the long-term trend is reduced fractionally. Really, check it out.

Im'a going to go ahead and just keep on posting this, despite the fact that we all know it won't help to penetrate the political beliefs held by the usual suspects but, really, it is simple enough that even they should be able to understand if they ever do bother with trying to understand the issue.

Logger - how about challenging you beliefs for once in awhile and take a critical look, come back and explain to us where you think the flaws in this relatively simple means of verifying the validity of temperature data homogenisation lie? Maybe you could explain the rationale for how a world wide conspiracy among meteorological agencies to adjust the global temperature trend by a mere 3% makes any sense whatsoever?

 
logger: Please cite your evidence for this "falsified data" assertion

Ahh sorry Reality Check, they ALL accept money and mostly from the side of the political isle they are on.
Sorry, logger, but that that nothing to do with what Willie Soon did.
This is not to do with politics.
This is taking money from an interested party and then lying by omission about taking that money :eek:

It looks like you have not even read the article so:
Deeper Ties to Corporate Cash for Doubtful Climate Researcher
He has accepted more than $1.2 million in money from the fossil-fuel industry over the last decade while failing to disclose that conflict of interest in most of his scientific papers. At least 11 papers he has published since 2008 omitted such a disclosure, and in at least eight of those cases, he appears to have violated ethical guidelines of the journals that published his work.

The documents show that Dr. Soon, in correspondence with his corporate funders, described many of his scientific papers as “deliverables” that he completed in exchange for their money. He used the same term to describe testimony he prepared for Congress.

Though Dr. Soon did not respond to questions about the documents, he has long stated that his corporate funding has not influenced his scientific findings

Emphasizing that you have a fantasy without evidence about falsified data is not good, logger :p!
logger: Please cite your evidence for this "falsified data" assertion. Start by stating what data was falsified.

logger, the trivial fact that scientists work for a living (get money) is well known :D.
An unsupported assertion that somehow they are paid from "political sides" needs a few facts. As written it sounds like the conspiracy theories we see about AGW. To take the USA as an example, logger:
Please cite the amount of money that the Republican party gives to climate research (and what side they are on).
Please cite the amount of money that the Democrat party gives to climate research (and what side they are on).
 
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NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt weighs in on the controversy over at RealClimate

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/02/the-soon-fallacy/#ITEM-18185-0

I like the final words he ends off with contrasting Soon's pseudoscience with the real, important and interesting work that can and is taking place.
The odd thing about this is that there is real, and interesting, science to be done on the impacts of solar forcing on climate. The chemical feedbacks due to photolytic reactions in both the stratosphere and troposphere involving ozone, NOx, and water vapour, can have significant impacts. Exploring the tremendous complexities in aerosol formation and growth and impacts on clouds and whether that is mediated by modulations of cosmic rays is fascinating (if, as yet, inconclusive). Indeed, there is a current NASA call for proposals on exactly these subjects (Notice of Intent due March 13!). But every time another one of these spurious correlations is touted, or one more fallaciously reasoned argument is put forward, it makes it harder for serious scientists to get involved at all without being tarred with the same pseudo-scientific brush.

Moving on from this low-quality, pointless kind of solar forcing shtick can’t come ‘Soon’ enough
 
I get the feeling Haig didn’t read the paper or even the authors ;)

In any case the point of this paper is that while there are global signals in the LIA and MWP, there is only warming/cooling in specific regions.



Sure I did, don't you know it's Mann Made Global Warming :D

[URL="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/02/23/greenpeace-enlists-justin-gillis-john-schwartz-of-the-ny-times-in-journalistic-terrorist-attack-on-willie-soon-miss-target-hit-smithsonian-instead/"]Greenpeace enlists Justin Gillis & John Schwartz of the NY Times in Journalistic Terrorist Attack on Willie Soon – Miss Target, Hit Smithsonian Instead



"This did NOT make the front page news at the New York Times.

Unlike the hit piece on Dr. Soon, this was buried in the back pages!" :eek:

UN IPCC climate head Rajendra Pachauri resigns amid sexual harassment allegations


My understanding is that there is a Pause / Hiatus in the warming of the 20th century and that will turn into a cooling as the Sun becomes less active in a Grand Solar Minimum. As happened 400 years ago in the Maunder Minimum associated with the Little Ice Age.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/...bernation-solar-cycle-sunspots-space-science/

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/08jan_sunclimate/

The climate is always changing.

My understanding is Our impact on climate is insignificant compared to Natural Forcing.

How our variable star affects our planets climate, weather and other natural events is becoming much more obvious … for example just consider these two videos from yesterday and today …

HUGE Solar Blast - 'Killshot' will Miss Earth | S0 News February 22, 2015 http://youtu.be/Ze3mwO7N-KQ


Solar Analysis, U-Yen Storm, Mexico Quake | S0 News February 23, 2015 http://youtu.be/ZUY0OWtGLdk


 
Haig: Repeated ignorance about the "hiatus" and a Grand Solar Minimum

Sure I did, don't you know it's Mann Made Global Warming :D
I am sure that you are ignorant about the fact that Mann do not make Global Warming, Haig :D!
A insane post on wattsupwiththat does not invalidate AGW. There is an ignorant person thinking that the funding agreement had to be signed by Willie Soon :eek:!
Funders of research rarely give the funds directly to a specific researcher. The Smithsonian accepted the funds and Willie Soon received them. Did Willie Soon think that 1.2 million dollars was a present from Santa Claus :p?
Of course not - he knew the source of his funding and was obliged to declare any conflict of interest where appropriate.

That "understanding" is repeated ignorance, Haig.
There has been no "Pause / Hiatus" in warming - the oceans have warmed up as I have explained before.
There will be no cooling even with a Grand Solar Minimum as I have explained before.
The Maunder Minimum started after the Little Ice Age. It did not cause it. It made it worse. Read what you cite:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/...bernation-solar-cycle-sunspots-space-science/
Known as the Maunder Minimum, the roughly 70-year period coincided with the coldest spell of the Little Ice Age, when European canals regularly froze solid and Alpine glaciers encroached on mountain villages.
 
...YouTube videos + unexplained images...
Haig:
YouTube videos are not science.
Unexplained images are not science.

An unexplained image that looks like the delusion that a new Maunder Minimum will cause a new Ice Age is not science.
An unexplained image that looks like a lie from Monckton? about temperature trends is not science.
An unexplained image that looks like a lie from Monckton? by cherry picking data about global temperatures is not science.

This is climate science, Haig: Eight Pseudoscientific Climate Claims Debunked by Real Scientists
 
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Wrong, logger, there is nothing funny about sexual harassment :(.


Or the inanity of thinking that sexual harassment is an argument against AGW.
Or the implied stupidity in that WUWT page: "We all knew it was simply a matter of time." - what's up with that? That someone somewhere in the world would be accused of sexual harassment sometime? Is it an irrelevant accusation that the UN is a hotbed of sexual harassment? Is the author paranoid to think that the IPCC is somehow predisposed to sexual harassment?

ETA: It could be WUWT just "diving into the sewer" to distract attention from the ethical and scientific failures of Willie Soon. The latter is well described in The Soon fallacy on Real Climate
As many will have read, there were a number of press reports (NYT, Guardian, InsideClimate) about the non-disclosure of Willie Soon’s corporate funding (from Southern Company (an energy utility), Koch Industries, etc.) when publishing results in journals that require such disclosures. There are certainly some interesting questions to be asked (by the OIG!) about adherence to the Smithsonian’s ethics policies, and the propriety of Smithsonian managers accepting soft money with non-disclosure clauses attached.

However, a valid question is whether the science that arose from these funds is any good? It’s certainly conceivable that Soon’s work was too radical for standard federal research programs and that these energy companies were really taking a chance on blue-sky high risk research that might have the potential to shake things up. In such a case, someone might be tempted to overlook the ethical lapses and conflicts of interest for the sake of scientific advancement (though far too many similar post-hoc justifications have been used to excuse horrific unethical practices for this to be remotely defendable).

Unfortunately, the evidence from the emails and the work itself completely undermines that argument because the work and the motivation behind it are based on a scientific fallacy. ...

The existence of one physical factor affecting a variable in a complex system says nothing whatsoever about the potential for another physical factor to affect that same variable.
 
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So an allegation has been made against the head of the IPCC and he immediately stands down pending an investigation.

Meanwhile, an allegation has been made against Willie Soon and...

ef43596c40e35ce8d96353881d0ddc5809c539e_t.gif
 
Speaking of tumbleweeds...

Logger - how about challenging you beliefs for once in awhile and take a critical look, come back and explain to us where you think the flaws in this relatively simple means of verifying the validity of temperature data homogenisation lie? Maybe you could explain the rationale for how a world wide conspiracy among meteorological agencies to adjust the global temperature trend by a mere 3% makes any sense whatsoever?


ef43596c40e35ce8d96353881d0ddc5809c539e_t.gif
 
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