Global warming discussion III

[uke2se]

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Do you hold the same opinion for this 1986 New York Times article quoting Hansen ?

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29 years.

You do know what year it is, right?

 

[Lennart Hyland]

-- 100 Percent of Scientists now agree that Global Warming has Stopped or Slowed Down

Hmm no the latest numbers I got actully tells that 100% of the scientists agrees that global warming hasnt stopped.

 

[Arnold Martin]

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Hansen said (1986) USA temperatures have risen by 1 to 2 degrees since 1958 and predicts they will increase by 3 or 4 more degrees by 2020


Was Hansen correct or incorrect ?

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[Lennart Hyland]

Who cares?

 

[uke2se]

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Hansen said (1986) USA temperatures have risen by 1 to 2 degrees since 1958 and predicts they will increase by 3 or 4 more degrees by 2020


Was Hansen correct or incorrect ?

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Again, do you know what year it is?

 

[Lennart Hyland]

Again, do you know what year it is?

I guess its a bad attempt of grasping at straws.

 

[Arnold Martin]

Hmm no the latest numbers I got actully tells that 100% of the scientists agrees that global warming hasnt stopped.

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Unfortunately , what you , or scientists "believe" has not proved to be correct , that is the point.

Hansen prophesied temp increases of 4 - 6 degrees Fahrenheit from 1958 to 2020

Yet we all know global temps have only increased by .08 degrees Celsius during the past 100 years .... and even now that is being challenged because some historical data has been "adjusted".

This whole situation reminds me of a cult leader who has been proven to be a false prophet yet the followers keep denying it

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[Pixel42]

Hansen said (1986) USA temperatures have risen by 1 to 2 degrees since 1958 and predicts they will increase by 3 or 4 more degrees by 2020

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/

US average annual temperature in 1958 was 51.93F. The maximum recorded since was in 2012, when it was 55.28F.

Was Hansen correct or incorrect ?

Obviously we won't know for another 6 years, but it's looking likely he'll at least be in the right ballpark.

global temps have only increased by .08 degrees Celsius during the past 100 years

You're out by a factor of ten. Average global temperatures have increased by 0.88C since 1914.

 

[logger]

Um. You do realise that snow is precipitation, right? And that the warmer the planet gets, the more moisture is in the air, and hence the greater the occurrence of precipitation events? Right?

Physics is fun.

More moisture would be better wouldn't it?

It seems though we have the cold too, which makes snow. Physics is fun!

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

Is there any truth to this?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ear...data-is-the-biggest-science-scandal-ever.html

Booker is an anti-science crank, who either is a prolific liar, or he doesn't understand the most basic facts about any of the scientific disciplines.

Anything he writes on any scientific matter is wrong.

 

[Agatha]

I have split some bickering posts to AAH. The mod team have recently taken delivery of a whole new stock of shiny yellow cards, and if you keep up with the incivility and personalisation, we'll distribute them freely amongst this thread's participants. So give the bickering and snark a rest, OK?

Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: Agatha

 

[CapelDodger]

@Arnold Martin

-- 100 Percent of Scientists now agree that Global Warming has Stopped or Slowed Down

Nonsense. AGW has not slowed down, let alone stopped.

-- This is in direct opposition to the IPCC’s contention that global warming is accelerating

Was that in the Secret Appendix? I've often wondered what's in there.

-- Many people continue to Deny this .

When you think about it that's hardly surprising, is it? If anything's surprising it's that there are people who believe it. Not that I find it surprising myself; some people are capable of believing anything they choose to.

 

[CapelDodger]

29 years.

You do know what year it is, right?

It's quite nostalgic, isn't it? For those too young to remember, Hansen was the Mann back in the day.

 

[bit_pattern]

More moisture would be better wouldn't it?

It would be wetter, that's for sure. I'm not sure why you think wetter=better. For example, if you grow staple crops like wheat then wetter definitely does not equal better. The tropics are very wet but they aren't a particularly good place to grow wheat. Or corn. Or many of the other staple crops we rely on to feed the world.

The tropics aren't recognised for their food producing capacity, despite your assertions to the contrary.

http://www.mapsofworld.com/world-top-ten/world-map-countries-wheat-production.html

http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?commodity=corn

It seems though we have the cold too, which makes snow. Physics is fun!

Yes. That's right. Despite the global long term average temperature increasing, it still gets cold in winter.

 

[bit_pattern]

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Hansen said (1986) USA temperatures have risen by 1 to 2 degrees since 1958 and predicts they will increase by 3 or 4 more degrees by 2020


Was Hansen correct or incorrect ?

.

Pretty damned close...

http://cpo.noaa.gov/ClimatePrograms...tTaskForce/2012CentralGreatPlainsDrought.aspx

ETA: Probably a fruitless task but it does seem worth pointing out that relying on selective historical quotes published in the news media can be quite misleading. If one *really* wants to know what Hansen was forecasting back in the mid-80s then one needs to go back to look at his published work, not rely on sensational snippets from the NYT. If you do so then you can deduce that when talking about "3-4° C." (I'm assuming °C but the 1986 article doesn't make it clear) Hansen was likely referring to only one of the three emissions scenarios he was working with, putting the scenario in the higher range of estimates. However, in hindsight we know the world did not follow that emissions trajectory and that with the lower emissions scenario the projections made in the 1980s were reasonably accurate. The important point to take from that is the sensitivity calculations - we can't necessarily forecast the rate at which emissions increase (or, conversely, the future rates of volcanism etc) but the fundamental calculations he was making in the 1980s around how the climate system responds to CO2 - while not perfect - were pretty much spot on. And those calculations have only been refined further in the subsequent three decades.

 

[Arnold Martin]

You're out by a factor of ten. Average global temperatures have increased by 0.88C since 1914.

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Correct ... the decimal is in the wrong place and I cannot edit it

But my point still stands .... the globe has warmed by 0.8 degrees in the past 100 years .... which is not even close to the 8.0 prophecy by Hansen

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[logger]

It would be wetter, that's for sure. I'm not sure why you think wetter=better. For example, if you grow staple crops like wheat then wetter definitely does not equal better. The tropics are very wet but they aren't a particularly good place to grow wheat. Or corn. Or many of the other staple crops we rely on to feed the world.

The tropics is but one place. Warmer means longer growing seasons north, that is where warming will be beneficial, not to mention the added moisture.

The tropics aren't recognised for their food producing capacity, despite your assertions to the contrary.

Your link says Brazil is the 3rd largest producer of corn. My link says they are an incredible source for agriculture, remember cutting down the rain forest?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_Brazil

Yes. That's right. Despite the global long term average temperature increasing, it still gets cold in winter.

Warmer is better than colder, wouldn't agree?

 

[logger]

Pretty damned close...

Pretty damn close?

Unless it gets cooler and wipes out the small rise he's missed by half. As if warmer temps and more moisture are bad.

I seem to remember the alarmists saying warmer temps would create droughts.

 

[uke2se]

So you have accepted that it is warming then? Can we expect you to stick to this, or will you jump back to claiming it isn't warming?

 

[logger]

So you have accepted that it is warming then? Can we expect you to stick to this, or will you jump back to claiming it isn't warming?

I never said it wasn't warming, I've always said man has nothing to do with it.