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Continuation Part 12: Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito

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Planigale,

IIUC Massei's hypothesis is that someone broke the window by hitting the outside face, but only after the window had already been swung into the room. No one ever tested Massei's conjecture, but Sgt. Pasquali did test the defense's hypothesis. IMO Massei's theory predicts a different distribution of glass inside the room because the position of impact with respect to the room and the momentum of the rock are both different.

The other problem I have with Massei's version of events is that Amanda or Raffaele would have to break the window with a dead body in the flat, potentially alerting neighbors or anyone passing by. (because of the valley effect, the noise would amplify in the vicinity of Nara's apartment, and she would have heard it)

It is possible that the window could have been broken before Meredith came home. If done from the inside of the room as Massei sumrises (with the outside shutters closed) that could muffle whatever sound the valley effect (?) would have. And whoever breaks the window could then close Filomena's door so the discovery of the broken window wouldn't become immediately apparent.
 
Rolfe,

The point about good record-keeping needs to be emphasized. I teach students that they must use a pen when writing in a laboratory notebook, that they must use a bound notebook, and that they must not obliterate anything. IIRC Leila Schneps in a thread at IA defended Stefanoni's incorrect statement with respect to whether or not she had obtain a positive quantitation for certain samples (probably the knife) in the following way: She did not record it at the time, but much she later saw that the sample had produced DNA in the electropherogram and assumed it was positive. This explanation might be true, but it also illustrates why another rule of good notebook keeping is that it should be up-to-the-minute.


The lab that was caught fitting people up because it properly used bound notebooks, then changed its procedure to use pre-printed loose-leaf pages. These could be shuffled together and numbered any way they liked, retrospectively, and anything could be interpolated or run out of sequence or just plain lost. They also cut up developed 35mm film into individual negatives so that their provenance was lost and anything could be substituted, contrary to established good forensic practice.

The Royal Armament Research and Development Establishment (United Kingdom). It's changed its name at least twice since then. That's a common government trick to try to distance an institution from past howlers. Like MAFF became DEFRA after it covered itself with ignominy in the foot-and-mouth crisis.
 
No but this is not what I'm saying Amanda Knox just knew Metedith and her would be alone at the cottage that night, since the downstairs boys were on holiday and Laura and Filomena IIRC used to leave at night on every weekend and holiday.
It does sound as though you are conceding a problem here, as anyone maneouvring around their murder victim needs to be sure to be undisturbed, and her email and all the court testimony say the opposite.
This is proof she either is innocent or very stupid, your choice. The whole staging around midnight theory is so riddled with practical illogicalities the argument defaults to no rock will be thrown by someone who knows there is a dead body inside. But like many other issues this is badly undeveloped as an argument by the defence, who have unfortunately sunk their clients. Good luck to you for this Mach.
 
And Wow again:) I’ll look back in tomorrow to see if you have figured it out.

And yet another case of ‘broken window perplexity’ – Kaosium don’t be angry with me but you must admit the recurrence of this stuff is astonishing.

Perhaps that's because a rational mind has difficulty following the prosecution theory because it's so counter-intuitive? I was handicapped as I had never seen a window that worked like that, or if it did I never noticed because it wasn't pulled in like that.


Platonov said:
Humour me Planigale (and I mean that literally) - What do you understand to be ‘the prosecution suggestion’ of how the window was broken?

Here's Massei on the subject, the passage I (and others!) couldn't make head or tails of which has provided such entertainment for Platonov:


Massei, PMF translation, p. 52

Indeed, if one supposes that the stone was thrown from the inside with the shutters pulled closed (as they must have been according to statements cited above), but with the casement holding the pane somewhat open, with the inner shutter behind it, then here is a situation analogous to that of throwing the stone from the outside (the rock would hit the window in the same place as if it came from the outside), and under the shock of the large stone, because of the resistance of the inner shutter behind the window-pane (the shield effect as one might say), the pieces of glass would necessarily fall down on the windowsill both inside and outside (considering the casement as having being only slightly open, and thus the smashed pane positioned near to the windowsill). The presence of the shutters pulled inwards, as described by Romanelli, would have prevented the pieces of glass from falling to the ground below, as indeed they did not, but as they surely would have had the stone been thrown from the outside. As for the presence of glass in Romanelli's room, the violence of the blow, the characteristics of the glass (which was rather thin as indicated by Romanelli and Pasquali), the large rock used, and finally the shield effect caused by the inner shutter hanging half-open behind the glass pane (a position of the inner shutter which corresponds to the scratch on it visible in the photos) give an adequate explanation of the distribution of the glass.






Here's a picture of the window
, note that there's shutters on both the inside and outside and the window swings in like it's pictured there. When Massei first mentions the shutters ("pulled closed") he's referring to the outer shutters.
 
It is possible that the window could have been broken before Meredith came home. If done from the inside of the room as Massei sumrises (with the outside shutters closed) that could muffle whatever sound the valley effect (?) would have. And whoever breaks the window could then close Filomena's door so the discovery of the broken window wouldn't become immediately apparent.

So there would be a staging of the burglary before the murder. But of course, no premeditation, according to the court decision, IIUC.

It would be significantly simpler to envision a real break-in followed by the murder.

A rock thrown from outside with considerable momentum would also account for the shard partially-impaled in the shutter/casement.

There is also the glass shard photographed by Guede's shoe print in blood in Meredith's room to consider.
 
Planigale, IIUC Massei's hypothesis is that someone broke the window by hitting the outside face, but only after the window had already been swung into the room. No one ever tested Massei's conjecture, but Sgt. Pasquali did test the defense's hypothesis. IMO Massei's theory predicts a different distribution of glass inside the room because the position of impact with respect to the room and the momentum of the rock are both different.

The other problem I have with Massei's version of events is that Amanda or Raffaele would have to break the window with a dead body in the flat, potentially alerting neighbors or anyone passing by. (because of the valley effect, the noise would amplify in the vicinity of Nara's apartment, and she would have heard it)


Halides1, It’s very contemptuous of Planigale’s argument (and understanding) not to let her answer for herself.
Were you worried I had correctly divined her error :)

Although given that it’s such a common occurrence on this thread ‘divined’ is probably not the correct term.

So Planigale was that your understanding?
If so, I have another Q.
 
It does sound as though you are conceding a problem here, as anyone maneouvring around their murder victim needs to be sure to be undisturbed, and her email and all the court testimony say the opposite.
This is proof she either is innocent or very stupid, your choice. The whole staging around midnight theory is so riddled with practical illogicalities the argument defaults to no rock will be thrown by someone who knows there is a dead body inside. But like many other issues this is badly undeveloped as an argument by the defence, who have unfortunately sunk their clients. Good luck to you for this Mach.

You are making a lot of confusion. The staging has nothing to do with Knox's knowing or not she would be undisturbed. They didn't expect to be disturbed during the staging, simply because that took place too late at night, and they did the staging because, once they committd the murder, they had no choice.
The fact of knowing that she would be alone with Meredith is a topic that doesn't have to do with the staging. It may have to do with some Knox's plan to be at the cottage with Meredith that night.
 
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It is possible that the window could have been broken before Meredith came home. If done from the inside of the room as Massei sumrises (with the outside shutters closed) that could muffle whatever sound the valley effect (?) would have. And whoever breaks the window could then close Filomena's door so the discovery of the broken window wouldn't become immediately apparent.

Why would anyone break the window from the inside before Meredith got home? At any rate that would preclude Raffaele and Amanda being involved as they've an electronic alibi until after Meredith returns to the cottage.
 
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Perhaps that's because a rational mind has difficulty following the prosecution theory because it's so counter-intuitive? I was handicapped as I had never seen a window that worked like that, or if it did I never noticed because it wasn't pulled in like that.




Here's Massei on the subject, the passage I (and others!) couldn't make head or tails of which has provided such entertainment for Platonov:


Massei, PMF translation, p. 52

Indeed, if one supposes that the stone was thrown from the inside with the shutters pulled closed (as they must have been according to statements cited above), but with the casement holding the pane somewhat open, with the inner shutter behind it, then here is a situation analogous to that of throwing the stone from the outside (the rock would hit the window in the same place as if it came from the outside), and under the shock of the large stone, because of the resistance of the inner shutter behind the window-pane (the shield effect as one might say), the pieces of glass would necessarily fall down on the windowsill both inside and outside (considering the casement as having being only slightly open, and thus the smashed pane positioned near to the windowsill). The presence of the shutters pulled inwards, as described by Romanelli, would have prevented the pieces of glass from falling to the ground below, as indeed they did not, but as they surely would have had the stone been thrown from the outside. As for the presence of glass in Romanelli's room, the violence of the blow, the characteristics of the glass (which was rather thin as indicated by Romanelli and Pasquali), the large rock used, and finally the shield effect caused by the inner shutter hanging half-open behind the glass pane (a position of the inner shutter which corresponds to the scratch on it visible in the photos) give an adequate explanation of the distribution of the glass.






Here's a picture of the window
, note that there's shutters on both the inside and outside and the window swings in like it's pictured there. When Massei first mentions the shutters ("pulled closed") he's referring to the outer shutters.

IIRC, the outer shutters did not latch properly, and Filomena had complained to the cottage owner about that. If Filomena left the outer shutters closed (and these may be the ones she does not remember closing in her early testimony), then they could not be latched. The wind could have blown them open, or as has been suggested, they could be opened from a position on the side of the cottage on the upper level, with perhaps some stretching by the burglar, prior to rock-throwing.
 
Anyway, my point (which seems to have got rather lost) was that unless you have a complete set of all the results generated for all samples tested in relation to the case, you can't know whether there has been cherry-picking or not.

Given the apparent evidence of many other areas of the knife being tested but the results not disclosed, I'd say cherry-picking is a dead cert. Test and test and test until you generate a run with a bit of contamination and present only that result as if it were representative of the whole.
 
Popovic and Ms. Knox's whereabouts

It is possible that the window could have been broken before Meredith came home. If done from the inside of the room as Massei sumrises (with the outside shutters closed) that could muffle whatever sound the valley effect (?) would have. And whoever breaks the window could then close Filomena's door so the discovery of the broken window wouldn't become immediately apparent.
christianahannah,

I don't see why Amanda or Raffaele would break the window prior to Meredith's arrival, nor do I see when that could happen, given Ms. Popovic's undisputed testimony on Amanda's whereabouts and some electronic indications after that. I do see why Rudy would break it at that time. The Valley effect was my attempt at humor (I probably should have left it out). IIRC Briars tried to argue that the peculiar acoustics in the area amplified the scream allegedly heard by Nara.
 
Planigale,

IIUC Massei's hypothesis is that someone broke the window by hitting the outside face, but only after the window had already been swung into the room. No one ever tested Massei's conjecture, but Sgt. Pasquali did test the defense's hypothesis. IMO Massei's theory predicts a different distribution of glass inside the room because the position of impact with respect to the room and the momentum of the rock are both different.

The other problem I have with Massei's version of events is that Amanda or Raffaele would have to break the window with a dead body in the flat, potentially alerting neighbors or anyone passing by. (because of the valley effect, the noise would amplify in the vicinity of Nara's apartment, and she would have heard it)

But if they did so as last thing, after they already finished with the other tossing things and cleaning, they would disappear from sight within seconds. So even if some neighbour were alerted by the smash in the night, they would hardly have the time to see somebody.
 
IIRC, the outer shutters did not latch properly, and Filomena had complained to the cottage owner about that. If Filomena left the outer shutters closed (and these may be the ones she does not remember closing in her early testimony), then they could not be latched. The wind could have blown them open, or as has been suggested, they could be opened from a position on the side of the cottage on the upper level, with perhaps some stretching by the burglar, prior to rock-throwing.

What wind? The maximum wind speed that night in the area was about 10 km/h, and from the East-Northeast.
 
Why would anyone break the window from the inside before Meredith got home? At any rate that would preclude Raffaele and Amanda being involved as they've an electronic alibi until after Meredith returns to the cottage.

Amanda and Raffaele were at the cottage for a time after Meredith left. If Amanda and Raffaele took Meredith's money while she was gone they could have broken the window (while they were there and before Meredith came home) to simulate a break-in/robbery.

Do I think this is what happened? No I don't.
 
You are making a lot of confusion. The staging has nothing to do with Knox's knowing or not she would be undisturbed. They didn't expect to be disturbed during the staging, simply because that took place too late at night, and they did the staging because, once they committd the murder, they had no choice.
The fact of knowing that she would be alone with Meredith is a topic that doesn't have to do with the staging. It may have to do with some Knox's plan to be at the cottage with Meredith that night.
I don't see the staging as necessary at all.
Amanda as the only key holder is a guilter's claim, but wrong.

Meredith has a key.

Amanda's best strategy is to say we had nothing to do with it, Meredith must have let him in. How does that fail the logical test?
Alright, you must know something I don't.
Why was a staging necessary?
 
I think the case is sound and closed beyond reasonable doubt. I can't see it as weak. It is iron-clad as for the amount of evidence.

There is lack of information on certain areas about events, but this is normal and must nor be confused with weakness of a case. A case does not equate to a scenario or a narrative or timeline of events, this needs to be clear.

Or even any direct evidence. Throw in a few compatibles, a couple tramp serial lying witnesses, mixed together with a fraudulently lab tech, and if no state experts are willing to testify to the impossible (only multiple persons could create the wounds), just ask the civil parties to scare up unscrupulous "experts" who will testify to absolutely anything for the gelt, and Volia! A one way ticket to the ECHR. Justice, Italian style, And God help our Italian friends who live under this nightmare. And if you want to respond, kindly quote the whole damn comment, thank you.
 
If the balcony is such an obvious and concealed entry point, why wasn't it used in the staging?

Because it would not allow a delay of the discovery of the body, which was Amanda Knox wanted (or needed).
She didn't want to be the one who actually "finds" the body and do that alone, understandably. She wanted Filomena to be alerted before, or if possible find the body in her place. (Stagers usually want to be around when the murder is discovered, in order to deflect suspicion away from themselves and in order to have an influence on the early investigation; but often they don't want to just report that they had discovered a murder).

At the same time, Knox as well had the problem of telling her story of shower and mop-fetching, also because she actually used the bathroom and couldn't remove evidence from it without making it visible, she wanted to attract attention on feces in the other bathroom etc., so she intended to andjust a burglary staging to fit with this line. To do this, she needed to place the break in into a room that could be closed. The balcony is logical as true entry point, but you can't tell the story about shower and delays with it.
 
Amanda and Raffaele were at the cottage for a time after Meredith left. If Amanda and Raffaele took Meredith's money while she was gone they could have broken the window (while they were there and before Meredith came home) to simulate a break-in/robbery.

Do I think this is what happened? No I don't.

Fair enough.

Do you think the window was broken from the inside? If you do, why?
 
christianahannah,

I don't see why Amanda or Raffaele would break the window prior to Meredith's arrival, nor do I see when that could happen, given Ms. Popovic's undisputed testimony on Amanda's whereabouts and some electronic indications after that. I do see why Rudy would break it at that time. The Valley effect was my attempt at humor (I probably should have left it out). IIRC Briars tried to argue that the peculiar acoustics in the area amplified the scream allegedly heard by Nara.

Ah, I see. I thought maybe there was some scientific principle I was unaware of (which are many).

I have thought that Rudy could be responsible for the staging of the window (without having to throw the rock from the outside or break in through the window). I understand why others think Amanda did it (the area of mixed blood - Amanda's and Meredith's - in Filomena's room) but of that I am less certain.
 
(...)

ETA: My understanding is that Guede had to make a "hazardous" (to whom?) climb to the second-story balcony. The climbs he undertook had many handholds and footholds, they were not hazardous to an athletic person. Maybe the out-of-shape police and prosecutor of Perugia would find such climbs hazardous; the exertion could cause a heart-attack in a vulnerable person.

Let's mention some of the pysical evidence of staging.
We find this set of elements, and we find them occuring all at the same time
(enumerated synthetically):

1. the window is an illogical point of entry (you can deny this, but you won't change this). Thieves just chose the easiest or safest way in;

2. there is no soil in Filomena's room (the soil below her window is dark and sticky);

3. there is no grass in Filomena's room;

4. drawers in Filomena's were not searched, they were completely untouched (usually, drawers are just the first place where burglars search).

5. No other room was searched by the alleged burglar; apprent focus only the "entry point room" has no bearing with reality;

6. the tossing of clothes from the wardrobe is something obviously theatrical and bogus, it's something nonsensical for a thief; that's no thief activity (drawers in all rooms would make sense).

7. no valuable item was taken (despite many were easilly transportable);

8. money in Knox's room was not taken;

9. Amanda Knox fell into serious contradictions on her "discovery" of the alleged burglary: she "forgot" to check for her cash, she allegedly went to check in her room because worried about her laptop, but she "forgot" she had already been in that room that same morning to undress, to dry herself and to change herself (and the laptop is the most visible object as you enter the room); in her Dec. 17. interrogation she contradicts even her own version once more;

10. the window shutters were left closed by Filomena, albeit not locked; which a) further complicates the illogical entry, requires to climb twice, and then, b) subsequently, the shutters were found half open (they would be open if the thief entrerd thought there; they would be closed if the thief wanted to shut them: it makes no sense for a thief to leave one shutter half open, only a forgetful stager could do that; and there was not enough wind, nor in the rigt direction);

11. the rock bowled on a paper bag ripping it, and the ripped paper below the rock has fallen on top of a cloth that allegedly would have been tossed there by the burglar. Many people appear to forget about this; but this is one element more that shows that the rock was thrown after the clothes had been already tossed around.

12. the glass shards on the sill were not touched; any thief balancing there or holding there somehow would tend to remove them or anyway disturb them, move them, collect them or make them fall. Yet they are untouched, as if nobody stepped on the sill.

13. Filomena testified that items (such as the laptop, covered by a tossed cloth) were covered by tiny pieces of glass;

14. no DNA from epithelial cell found on the sill or on the window frame;

15. there is large crumbles of white paint from the painting of the window inner shutter that were fallen on te clothes strewn on the floor (further evidence suggesting clothes were tossed before the smashing);

16. no footprints were found on the soil/grass beneath

17. the rest of circumstantial evidence pointing in the direction of Knox being in the room carrying Meredith's blood, rather than Guede (mixed DNA vitcim + Knox in Filomena's room on luminol stains), no glass outside, the manouver of opening the window sticking an arm though a guillotine shaped glass while climbing a wall seems dangerous and not something a burglar is eager to do, testimonies of police about the soil being wet, lack of relation between burglary and the kind of murder (rape and extreme violence) etc.
 
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