Continuation Part 10: Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito

[Numbers]

As in America I think it is subject to the laws of the land. It is for the Italian people decide not us as foreigners to dictate.

Couldson,

Does your statement mean that you would consider it improper, an infringement of Italian sovereignty, if an international court, composed of 7 or 17 non-Italian judges, as a result of a trial held in Italy and brought before them, advised in a judgement that certain rights of the convicted defendant had been violated? And further that the court suggested certain changes to Italian law to prevent or make less likely such violation in the future? And then a Committee of Ministers then met with the Italian government to oversee such changes?

Because that is the process in the ECHR/Council of Europe.

Discussions on this forum or elsewhere, even if known to the Italian people or government, are hardly likely to have much influence, let alone "dictatorial" power.

 

[Numbers]

Angela Antonelli, a former chief prison guard, recalls about Knox:



According to Sophie Pourthon and Robyn Butterworth, Meredith complained that Amanda Knox had some poor personal hygiene habits.

Mach,

I read in one of the UK tabloid (online) that one of the prison guards, perhaps the lady you quote, found Amanda quite cold as a person. Even worse, Amanda was observed to read many books.

From this report I concluded that reading many books is considered by some Italians as an indication of a bad character.

 

[acbytesla]

How catty of them to make their friend sound like such a back-biter. Also, how irrelevant to the question of innocence.

Has anyone anywhere ever heard Amanda say anything critical at all about Meredith? Seen her write anything? Recorded her saying anything?

No, of course not. That's because Amanda liked Meredith.

And Meredith at least pretended that she liked Amanda. Neither of the two other roommates saw any real friction and said that they seemed to get along. Also, it's worth noting that many of Meredith's texts to Amanda had "kisses". So either Meredith was just venting to the Sophie and Robyn about a couple of minor issues with Amanda or Meredith was a big phoney and two faced.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

The Adam Scott contamination case: mixed DNA does not mean mixed semen

Peter Gill examined the Adam Scott contamination case. Traces of semen were found in the victim in this case. One sample produced a mixture of DNA from the victim’s boyfriend and another man. Mr. Scott’s DNA arose from saliva (and was introduced into the evidence of a separate case by a contamination event), yet the prosecution claimed the DNA was from semen. The prosecution Misleading DNA Evidence, p. 42: "Recommendation 4: If a body fluid is identified from a known contributor, this information cannot be used to hypothesize the body fluid origin of any additional contributor in a mixture of body fluids/tissues." So much for the false equivalence between mixed DNA and mixed blood in this case.

 

[Dan O.]

Angela Antonelli, a former chief prison guard, recalls about Knox:

So what do you think about Nencini criticizing Amanda for taking 2 showers in the same day?

According to Sophie Pourthon and Robyn Butterworth, Meredith complained that Amanda Knox had some poor personal hygiene habits.

It's so sad that after all this time you don't even know what that criticism was about. Everybody else here knows the story. Why is it that you are always so far behind?

 

[Machiavelli]

So what do you think about Nencini criticizing Amanda for taking 2 showers in the same day?





It's so sad that after all this time you don't even know what that criticism was about. Everybody else here knows the story. Why is it that you are always so far behind?

You may have missed that I could read the trial papers years before they were translated, including testimonies, (remember the pro-Knoxes Chiriboga and Quintavalle hoaxes?)proved I knew law and context long before you. Now you feel the need to make up wild statements even on the topic of what I know. How do you pick the knowledge of what I "know" is a mystery.

 

[RWVBWL]

x,x,x...

And Meredith at least pretended that she liked Amanda. Neither of the two other roommates saw any real friction and said that they seemed to get along. Also, it's worth noting that many of Meredith's texts to Amanda had "kisses". So either Meredith was just venting to the Sophie and Robyn about a couple of minor issues with Amanda or Meredith was a big phoney and two faced.

Hi AC,
I betcha Miss Kercher also signed her text messages
to The English gals with x's too.

Can anyone dispute my theory?
Was only Amanda the receiver of Meredith's kisses?
Or was this issue just a buncha girl gossip?

 

[Machiavelli]

Mach,

I read in one of the UK tabloid (online) that one of the prison guards, perhaps the lady you quote, found Amanda quite cold as a person. Even worse, Amanda was observed to read many books.

From this report I concluded that reading many books is considered by some Italians as an indication of a bad character.

Instead, what I know is Curt Knox (Amanda's father) used to proudly boast that he read only five books in his life. One of which was the tributary code.
While you think about your next racist insinuation you might be pleased throw abou "Italians", you may need to read the report second time to notice that Antonelli sees quite other things that make Amanda Knox come across as a unempathic character. Then you may note how - according to the report - the reasons have nothing to do with books.

 

[RWVBWL]

You may have missed that I could read the trial papers years before they were translated, including testimonies, (remember the pro-Knoxes Chiriboga and Quintavalle hoaxes?)proved I knew law and context long before you. Now you feel the need to make up wild statements even on the topic of what I know. How do you pick the knowledge of what I "know" is a mystery.

Hi Machiavelli,
You would get bonus points if you ever decided to step up
and criticize the investigation into what happened that night,
and it's evidence collection, from Meredith's horrible murder.

I mean, come on,
you know that someone screwed up
when they put Meredith's blood sample into a used test tube with alcohol in it, right?

You know that the results of the seminal fluid tests should be well known, right?
You know that there should be no doubt that it was only cats blood downstairs, right?

You know that the bra clasp should have been collected when it was found underneath Meredith's pillow, right?
You know that the bra clasp should have been picked up with clean, new sterile tweezers,
and not passed around like a fat joint at a Venice Beach surfer party, right?

When will you ever admit that there are many problems with this case?
Are you, as an Italian, afraid to publicly state so?
Just wonderin'
RW in Los Angeles

 

[Dan O.]

You may have missed that I could read the trial papers years before they were translated.

Not the same as did.

You could have been an asset to these discussions. Yet you choose to be a pain with your selective memory. You take every opportunity to throw insults against Amanda and her family. It's like you are being paid to trash her reputation.

 

[Numbers]

Instead, what I know is Curt Knox (Amanda's father) used to proudly boast that he read only five books in his life. One of which was the tributary code.
While you think about your next racist insinuation you might be pleased throw abou "Italians", you may need to read the report second time to notice that Antonelli sees quite other things that make Amanda Knox come across as a unempathic character. Then you may note how - according to the report - the reasons have nothing to do with books.

Mach,

I assure that I did not mean that comment as a racist remark. Note that I qualified my remark as "some Italians", meaning not all.

It was a comment directed against the character assassination of a person - a college student of one culture, trapped in a prison - by some one from another culture, with different standards.

I direct you to Wikipedia for a list of 20 Italian Nobel Laureates:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Italian_Nobel_laureates

Some Italians read many books and are internationally recognized for their intellectual achievements.

However, in terms of this case, indulging in endless character assassination of the defendants and their families is, IMO, neither productive nor honorable. In my opinion, it is a sign of the non-existence of a real legal evidentiary case.

 

[kwill]

Did I miss something? Are people of Italian descent a race unto themselves?

Is there also a Norwegian race? Or a Finnish one, because if I get to say that jokes about Finnlanders (common in Upper Michigan where I was raised) are racist, I've been missing a huge opportunity.

Ahem. Mach, when people criticize particular Italians (as in, wow Mignini seems to be dumb as a stump) that is not racism, unless he is a race of his own. When they criticize the Italian judicial system (as in, wow they let any old lie be told right in court even when they know it's a lie), that is also not racism. That is shock that witnesses are allowed to -- expected to, even -- perjure themselves, which in other systems is a crime. When they wonder how the Italian electorate is able to shrug off what seem to be systemic problems in its judicial system (more than 1 in 5 appeals to the ECHR originate in Italy), that is also not racism.

No one thinks people of Italian descent are any different from people of any other nationality. But some of us wonder what on earth is keeping them from standing up for just a tiny bit more justice.

You didn't reply when I suggested that Meredith's British friends were being catty for repeating what she said about Amanda. I really would like to know how you think their nastiness is relevant.

 

[anglolawyer]

Example error in law #1:

The infamous "osmosis" argument, and its stunning misunderstanding/misapplication by Nencini's court.

In general jurisprudence (and explicitly enshrined in Italian law), the rules of evidence state that each individual piece of evidence must be tested for reliability, credibility and accuracy before it is allowed to form part of the case. If it passes this test, then it can be considered alongside other pieces of evidence in forming an overall assessment of guilt/non-guilt.

That's what "osmosis" means. "Osmosis" doesn't magically strengthen the reliability/credibility/accuracy of any individual piece of evidence. Rather, it means that even if each individual piece of evidence (assuming of course that it has passed the reliability test) doesn't necessarily point in a certain direction, all the reliable pieces of evidence, taken together, might indeed point inexorably towards guilt (or non-guilt).

Example: Mrs A is found shot dead with a .38 gun outside her office building. Mr A is a suspect. There are three different pieces of evidence: 1) Mr A was heard by neighbours having a violent argument with Mrs A the night before the murder; 2) Mr A owned a .38 revolver prior to the murder, and that gun is now missing; 3) Mr A cannot account for his whereabouts in the hour surrounding the murder.

Now, each of these items of evidence, considered in total isolation, would almost certainly not constitute sufficient proof that Mr A was the murderer. But all three, considered together, clearly make it far more likely that Mr A was the murderer. THAT's "osmosis" in action.

But that's true ONLY if each of those three items of evidence is itself proven to be reliable and accurate. Suppose instead that the alleged argument might in fact have been an entirely different couple in the same apartment block. Or suppose that it's unclear whether Mr A really did own a .38 at the time of the murder: he claims to have got rid of it several years ago and none of his gun club friends ever recall seeing it in the previous five years.

If each piece of evidence is itself unreliable, the "osmosis" effect will not suddenly miraculously make it more reliable! The court in the above example would not be entitled to say something along the lines of: "well, we don't really know whether or not it was Mr A and Mrs A having the violent argument, but when we consider it alongside the other evidence, we are entitled to reason that it probably WAS between Mr and Mrs A".

And that appears to be exactly the sort of thing that Nencini's court is doing in its reasoning. It ought to be immediately appealable.

This is a nice illustration. However, as we (in E & W) have no such explicit rule about prior evaluation of individual items of circumstantial evidence, and tyere must be a resson for that, I will add that the other items of CE are capable of shoring up a dodgy one. IOW CE may not only operate to prove the inferred fact (that A shot Mrs A) but also the other items of CE. I will try to think of an equally graphic example. What I am suggesting is the Italian law you mention is a bad law that incorrectly systemises CE. The common law is smarter in not attempting the exercise.

Someone else asked whether international criticism had worked against A & R by putting the system itself on the defensive. I would not be surprised as the system has a lot to be defensive about, not least the psuedo-intellectualism that infests it as exemplified by the motivations, Nencini's being the latest example and the ISC's reversal of Hellman being the best.

ETA I thought of an example: the .22 pistol stolen from Jodi Arias's grandfather in the days before Travis Alexander was shot with a .22 pistol. There was no clear evidence that Jodi stole the weapon but other CE in the case supports the claim that she did, CE which is mutually and cumulatively reinforcing. In the Italian system, assuming we correctly understand it, we would have to discount the gun theft as an element just because a regular burglar could have done it.

 

[NancyS]

Police interview\interrogations (of serious crimes) in the UK are subject to audio\video recording.

And if what happened in Italy had happened in the UK, would you have remained equally as unconcerned?

 

[Planigale]

Angela Antonelli, a former chief prison guard, recalls about Knox:



According to Sophie Pourthon and Robyn Butterworth, Meredith complained that Amanda Knox had some poor personal hygiene habits.

Sounds awfully like she was (clinically) depressed, I am not sure that behaviour when one has been wrongfully imprisoned is an indicator of behaviour out of jail. I can remember no one suggesting that Knox wore the same clothes every day prior to imprisonment, certainly photo evidence does not support this.

I have argued for a long time that it is normal behaviour for a girl to go back to her own flat after a dirty night out. Boys never have conditioner, you probably need to shave, pluck etc. You have a body shower at his place to get rid of 'sweat' and other stuff on your skin get dressed in your clothes from the night before go home shower again do your hair do other stuff (shave under your arms / legs, pluck eyebrows etc.) get changed into new clothes go out or just crash out in a clean bed.

I had not previously seen the quote given from Knox as to why she went back to her own place for a second shower. From a scientists PoV I made a prediction about why she did this now empirical evidence supports this. This makes this for me very convincing, the reasons I would do this are the same that Knox gave.

That Nencini does not understand this is a 'sexist' issue. I wonder if a female judge had been drawing up the motivation report then having a second shower in this circumstance would be regarded as normal.

 

[NancyS]

Angela Antonelli, a former chief prison guard, recalls about Knox:

What an awful woman - this should have been a massive red flag that Amanda was depressed and needed emotional support - and instead she goes to the tabloids. Why are there so many corrupt people in positions of authority?

According to Sophie Pourthon and Robyn Butterworth, Meredith complained that Amanda Knox had some poor personal hygiene habits.

Miaow! You can just imagine them all sitting around being mean about the 'American' girl'. It sounds like they stuck together in a group the whole time and I expect they would have been equally rude about the Italian people they met - whereas Amanda seemed to have made an effort to mix

 

[CoolSceptic]

In this particular paper the test solid meals consisted of:

- 1 egg
- 50 mL of low-fat milk
- 50 g of brown bread
- 20 g of butter

The egg was mixed with the milk and scrambled and fried in a pan.

Thanks. I expected that would be the case - the non-paywalled studies I have read usually have the same meal, which seems to be fairly standard and allows data to be compared across papers. Useful to confirm that is the case for this study too.

 

[Charlie Wilkes]

What an awful woman - this should have been a massive red flag that Amanda was depressed and needed emotional support - and instead she goes to the tabloids. Why are there so many corrupt people in positions of authority?




Miaow! You can just imagine them all sitting around being mean about the 'American' girl'. It sounds like they stuck together in a group the whole time and I expect they would have been equally rude about the Italian people they met - whereas Amanda seemed to have made an effort to mix

This crap he is quoting is petty nonsense that wouldn't prove anything if it were true, which it is not. Amanda Knox is a wholesome, well-groomed individual. Take it from someone who actually knows her, which I do and he does not.

 

[CoolSceptic]

This may be a helpful extract from this dissertation on preop considerations

In contrast, the gastric emptying curve for solids is linear20,21 (Fig. 2). Gastric emptying of solid food starts approximately 1 h after a meal. Within 2 h, approximately 50% of the solid food ingested is passed to the duodenum. The gastric emptying of solids is independent of the amount of food ingested but dependent on the caloric density of the meal.

Here is the link

http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0120-33472007000400004

Hmm, no that isn't helpful, in fact it is confusing and somewhat contradictory.

Convention for liquids is an approximation to an exponential model, derived from an emptying rate proportional to the contents, i.e.

dv/dt = -kv

Where v is volume, t is time and k is a constant. This is a simple ODE which is trivially solved analytically

v(t) = v₀ exp(-kt)

Where v₀ is the initial conditions (volume at time t=0). Hence the term exponential model. For a given fixed change in time, ΔT, we get the expression

v(t+ΔT) = v₀ exp(-k(t+ΔT)) = v₀ exp(-kt) exp(-kΔT)

If we look at the ratio of these equations

v(t+ΔT)/v(t) = v₀ exp(-kt) exp(-kΔT) / (v₀ exp(-kt))

You get a whole bunch of cancelling leaving

v(t+ΔT)/v(t) = exp(-kΔT)

If we set the volume ratio to be a fixed value, say 1/2, we can solve for ΔT=T_1/2 and find independence from v₀:

0.5 = exp(-kT_1/2)

Now that is fine for an exponential model. But the authors of the paper above argue for a linear model. A linear model takes the form

dm/dt = -k

where m is mass of solid food, t is time and k is a constant. Solving the ODE:

m(t) = m₀ - kt

Where m₀ are initial conditions. Now expanding this by a fixed chunk of time ΔT

m(t+ΔT) = m₀ - k(t+ΔT)

Computing the ratio to allow T_1/2 to be assessed

m(t+ΔT)/m(t) = [m₀ - k(t+ΔT)] / [m₀ - kt]

Well, that's a mess. Substituting 0.5 for m(t+ΔT)/m(t) and ΔT = T_1/2 we get

0.5 [m₀ - kt] = m₀ - k(t+T_1/2)

0.5m₀ - 0.5kt = m₀ - kt - kT_1/2

0.5m₀ - 0.5kt - m₀ + kt = - kT_1/2

-kT_1/2 = -0.5m₀ + 0.5kt

T_1/2 = 0.5m₀/k - 0.5t

This shows that a linear model is, by rigorous mathematical definition, dependent on the initial mass of solid food. So quite why a paper would firstly endorse a linear model, then insist on independence from the initial mass of the meal, is a bit confusing. It is mathematically inconsistent.

Now it could be that the assumptions made by these authors are different to the assumptions I've made above - but if they are, then the authors are using the technical terminology in a very different way to - well, just about every other scientific field in the world. Which would be surprising. It is also possible I've made an error above. In which case I would invite corrections.

The thing that makes me more confident that my analysis above is correct is that pretty much every forensic text I've seen cautions that gastric emptying of solids is a function of the size of the initial meal. e.g. here, on Moore's analysis of gastric emptying for people eating meals until they felt full:

http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=XyG3802xSdwC&pg=PA37&lpg=PA37

With apologies if the following has typos (I hand copied it):

The subjects were allowed to eat as much as they wanted and to stop when they felt full. [...] The weight of the solid food ranged from 693 to 1279 g with an average of 865.5 g. The gastric half-emptying time (T_1/2) for these meals ranged from a low of 60 to a maximum of 338 min with an average half-emptying time of 277 +/- 44 min. [...] This study also revealed that, in several subjects, there was a long lag time following the ingestion of the meal during which no emptying occurred.

Other than the fact that the authors should really know grams are a unit of mass, not weight, we find that full meals have a far longer emptying time than the small meals used in scientific research, due to the dependency on initial conditions for the linear model that I outline above. Furthermore, even amongst healthy subjects, long lag times after a full meal can occur. Checking subject 5 from Moore et al 1981 referenced in the above text book, we find they had a T_1/2 of 638 minutes after their full meal - that is over 10 hours

 

[Chris_Halkides]

Siegel and coworkers 1988 paper on mathematics of gastric emptying

CoolSceptic,

On 24 September I posted a comment that linked back to two earlier comments in continuation thread 8 about the mathematics of gastric emptying. Possibly, they would be of some interest to you. They go through Siegel's equation for gastric emptying and the definitions of t(lag)