Why would the Italians allow Raf to remain out of prison after a confirmation of his conviction by the ISC? There's no basis for not taking him directly to prison to serve a confirmed sentence, IIUC.
Even if the case were pending in front of the ECHR, how could the Italians release him from prison without an order from an Italian court?
The fact that it would appear grossly unfair for Raf to be in prison, and the US refuse extradition, is one more reason ISC has to send the case back down for another appeal trial, or just dismiss it for lack of evidence (outright dismissal is what I think most likely. Or sending it back down in such a way that its toast - like by ruling the DNA evidence inadmissible as per C&V, and excluding AK's coerced statements which Nencini did not do; and ditching Curatolo as per Hellman, and requiring Rudy to testify as a constitutional right to face their accuser).
Rudy goes on the witness stand for one day, and then the case gets dismissed. That's my scenario, fantasy or otherwise.
In any event, I really do not believe these convictions will be confirmed.