The odds against rolling a 2 with a pair of standard dice are 35 : 1.
In the unlikely case that you do happen to roll a 2, then the probability that you have in fact rolled a 2 is 1. But that does not mean the odds against rolling a 2 have mysteriously altered. The odds against rolling a 2 remain precisely the same as they were before you rolled it: 35 : 1. You haven't changed or negated the odds by rolling the 2.
The Texas Sharpshooter fallacy is that, prior to picking a target number, you role a pair of dice, see a 2 comes up, then decide that 2 was your target after all. You have chosen your target
after the event. So we agree that the probability before you throw the dice of getting a 2 is 35:1, but your probability of getting
some number between 2 and 12 before you throw a standard pair of dice is near 1. If you chose your hit point as whatever appears on the top of the dice after your throw, your probability of getting your hit point is near 1.
I thought I would try using another of Toontown's analogies to explain this point, but the probability of convincing "him" is hard to determine.
Jabba chose his target, "Jabba" after the event (his conception and development). Or perhaps you can explain how Jabba's "specifications" were determined from the beginning of time (on gold leafs, perhaps) as you indicated? Many of his specifications were genetic in origin, but Jabba appears to think that an important component of his "identity" is not physical at all, but is a soul that will continue after his death. Do you agree?